Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

PUSHED BACK TIMING OF VCTS FOR RSL AND SLN A COUPLE HOURS DUE TO
RECENT RADAR TRENDS. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR NOW HAS THE MCS
FIZZLING OUT AROUND 14Z...SO TOOK OUT MENTION OF VCTS AT CNU.
DIFFICULT FORECASTING THE OUTFLOW STRENGTH AND TIMING BUT AM
REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT OUTFLOW SHOULD AFFECT HUT...ICT AND CNU
SOMETIME JUST AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY ALONG WITH THE SKY TRENDS WITH THE MCS. NAM
TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THINK
THIS IS BECAUSE IT HAS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND FORMING PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE LAST
FEW AFTERNOONS NOT SEEING MUCH...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT
FOR NOW.

&&

ARL

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012/

UPDATE...

TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR CENTRAL KANSAS A LITTLE BEFORE 06Z AS THE
ACTIVITY HAS BARELY ENTERED EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS HOUR.
AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS THOUGH LOOKS GOOD FROM 9Z ON SO LEFT THAT
AS IS. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT
DO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA AS DCAPE VALUES EXTEND AS HIGH AT 2000
J/KG.

ARL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES DUE TO 500MB RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE IS CAUSING DIURNAL
CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS STILL APPEARS TO BE AT
RSL AND SLN AROUND 6 TO 12Z. WASN'T CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ENTER VCTS
AT HUT...ICT OR CNU...BUT WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE FOR THE 12Z
CYCLE. OVERNIGHT MCS COULD PROPAGATE AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
A 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE TOWARDS CNU BY 12Z...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE
THE VCTS OUT FOR THE MOMENT. WIND FORECAST IS ALSO TRICKY DUE TO
POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS AND THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT NOSES
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT THE GENERAL THEME IS THAT WINDS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

LAUGEMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MESO HIGH FROM LAST NIGHTS/THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION HAS RESULTED
IN A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST/WEST
ACROSS NORTHERN OK...SO ANY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. HOWEVER
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WEAK MONSOONAL ENERGY ROUNDING TOP OF
RIDGE COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG
NORTHERN FRINGE OF STOUT 850-700MB THERMAL RIDGE. THINKING HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF WICHITA.

LIKE TODAY...ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW COULD THROW A WRENCH
INTO THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES...WITH A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
LIKELY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. DUE TO GOOD MIXING AND 30-34C 850MB
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SOAR ABOVE 110
DEGREES...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW UNCERTAINTIES...WILL PUNT HEAT
HEADLINES DECISION TO THE NIGHT SHIFT. DUE TO THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY IN VICINITY...COULD SEE A FEW HIT-AND-MISS
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN KS
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS...AS MORE WEAK
MONSOONAL ENERGY TOPS RIDGE.

ANOTHER VERY HOT FRIDAY IS ANTICIPATED...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS LIKELY
SOARING ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS. LIKE THURSDAY...CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW HIT-AND-MISS AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
WEAK BOUNDARY IN VICINITY.

SHORT-MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AFTER
ANOTHER HOT DAY OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...READINGS BY SUNDAY SHOULD DROP INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
ADDITIONALLY...AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN ISOLATED
RELIEF...WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINS APPEAR UNLIKELY.

FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE MODELS WHETHER THE
ABNORMALLY WARM SUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN. ECMWF SUGGESTS
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN...RESULTING IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNING. HOWEVER...GFS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES KEEP THE RIDGE
CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN READINGS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS...ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
WILL HOPE THAT THE GFS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES VERIFY.

KLEINSASSER

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BEHIND IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...WHICH
COULD IMPACT CENTRAL KANSAS AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT VCTS AT KRSL AND
KSLN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   106  77 106  77 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON     104  77 104  77 /  10  20  10  20
NEWTON         103  76 103  76 /  10  20  20  20
ELDORADO       103  77 104  77 /  10  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD  108  78 109  78 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL        100  75 101  75 /  10  40  20  20
GREAT BEND     102  76 102  76 /  10  30  10  20
SALINA         100  75 101  75 /  10  40  20  20
MCPHERSON      102  76 102  76 /  10  30  20  20
COFFEYVILLE    108  78 108  78 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE        103  76 102  76 /  10  30  30  20
IOLA           102  75 101  75 /  10  30  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF   105  78 105  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
422 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-022130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
422 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND ON SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS. VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS EACH
DAY.

A COUPLE OF ROGUE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

KSZ048>051-020830-
ELLSWORTH-MCPHERSON-RICE-SALINE-
240 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELLSWORTH...MCPHERSON...RICE AND SALINE
COUNTIES...

AT 237 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WINDS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM SOLOMON TO LORRAINE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 9738 3844 9738 3834 9848 3868 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0739Z 319DEG 33KT 3887 9737 3859 9830

HOWERTON