Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
651 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...AS STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND AN
UNCAPPED AIRMASS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT MOST
OF THE STORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS CEN KS JUST TO THE NW OF KRSL AND KHYS.

EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY VCTS FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES IN
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THU.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WHICH MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OFT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THU AFTERNOON.
SO WILL PLACE VCTS IN THE KICT/KCNU TAFS FOR THU AFTN FOR THIS
CHANCE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY.

SYNOPSIS:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING A VERY WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
LIFTED OUT OF NW TX WHICH IS PROVIDING SOME ACCUS AND LIGHT RETURNS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM NORTH OF OMAHA TO NORTH OF GARDEN CITY AND IS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH.

TONIGHT-THU:
HOW WIDESPREAD THE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
REMAINS THE MAIN QUESTION. CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS HIGH THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER W-NW KS. FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT NOW THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN SOME COVERAGE AFTER DARK GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF ACCUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT THERE INDICATING MINIMAL
ELEVATED CAPPING IN PLACE...WHICH THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING THE LAST
FEW RUNS. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THU MORNING.

MODELS HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH SE
KS BY THU AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE AGAIN BEING THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. GIVEN SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SE KS ALONG
WITH SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SHOULD SEE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM
ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOME MINOR RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI-WED:
WE WON'T WAIT LONG TO GET BACK INTO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT THROUGH THESE
EXTENDED PERIODS.

BY 00Z SAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTENDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT DOWN SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE BACK-IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE POSITION OF THIS HIGH WILL REALLY ALLOW
THE SUMMER MONSOON TO GET CRANKED UP OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE/ENERGY MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO NW KS
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.
BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO STILL FORECASTING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN 850MB TEMPS WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  98  74 101 /  30  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75  97  72 101 /  40  20  10  10
NEWTON          75  96  73 101 /  40  30  10  10
ELDORADO        76  97  74 100 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  99  74 101 /  20  30  20  10
RUSSELL         70  99  70 101 /  40  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      72  99  71 101 /  40  10  10   0
SALINA          74  98  73 101 /  40  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  97  73 101 /  40  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     79  99  74 102 /  20  50  20  10
CHANUTE         77  95  73 100 /  30  40  10  10
IOLA            77  95  73  99 /  30  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    78  97  73 101 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
709 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-270015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
709 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER STORMS OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.

VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY LATE THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 135.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED
THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SCATTERED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT.

EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY...HEAT INDICES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN WARM BACK INTO THE 100 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN HOTTER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO THE
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE STORM CHANCES.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

BILLINGS/LAWSON/KETCHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

KSZ032-260030-
RUSSELL-
643 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF PARADISE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 9904 3913 9904 3914 9903 3914 9878
      3904 9874 3899 9905 3905 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 252DEG 10KT 3909 9902

MCGUIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
647 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     WILDFIRE         2 S LITTLE RIVER        38.37N 98.01W
07/25/2012                   RICE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE FIRE SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER WHICH HAS IMPACTED A FEW
            HOMES AND A BARN.

&&

RBL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
707 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

KSZ071-072-260030-
ALLEN-WOODSON-
707 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALLEN AND WOODSON COUNTIES...

AT 704 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YATES CENTER...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS 40-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9577 3804 9577 3805 9547 3804 9538
      3773 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 262DEG 27KT 3784 9562

LAUGEMAN

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