Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY.

SYNOPSIS:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING A VERY WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
LIFTED OUT OF NW TX WHICH IS PROVIDING SOME ACCUS AND LIGHT RETURNS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM NORTH OF OMAHA TO NORTH OF GARDEN CITY AND IS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH.

TONIGHT-THU:
HOW WIDESPREAD THE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
REMAINS THE MAIN QUESTION. CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS HIGH THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER W-NW KS. FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT NOW THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN SOME COVERAGE AFTER DARK GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF ACCUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT THERE INDICATING MINIMAL
ELEVATED CAPPING IN PLACE...WHICH THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING THE LAST
FEW RUNS. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THU MORNING.

MODELS HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH SE
KS BY THU AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE AGAIN BEING THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. GIVEN SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SE KS ALONG
WITH SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SHOULD SEE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM
ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOME MINOR RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI-WED:
WE WON'T WAIT LONG TO GET BACK INTO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT THROUGH THESE
EXTENDED PERIODS.

BY 00Z SAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTENDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT DOWN SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE BACK-IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE POSITION OF THIS HIGH WILL REALLY ALLOW
THE SUMMER MONSOON TO GET CRANKED UP OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE/ENERGY MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO NW KS
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.
BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO STILL FORECASTING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN 850MB TEMPS WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  98  74 101 /  30  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75  97  72 101 /  40  20  10  10
NEWTON          75  96  73 101 /  40  30  10  10
ELDORADO        76  97  74 100 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  99  74 101 /  20  30  20  10
RUSSELL         70  99  70 101 /  40  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      72  99  71 102 /  40  10  10   0
SALINA          74  98  73 101 /  40  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  97  73 101 /  40  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     79  99  74 102 /  20  50  20  10
CHANUTE         77  96  73 100 /  30  40  10  10
IOLA            77  95  73  99 /  30  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    78  97  73 101 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

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