Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS. SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WITH CONVERGENCE RATHER WEAK...WILL KEEP CNU TAF DRY.
WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PROGGED TUESDAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. DECENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROGGED BUT FORCING IS ON THE WEAK SIDE. THIS
MAY RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH. DUE TO
COVERAGE CONCERNS THIS FAR OUT...WILL LEAVE TS MENTION OUT OF TAFS
BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE STORMS NEAR HUT...ICT...AND
CNU IN PARTICULAR.

JMC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT:
RELATIVELY DRY AIR HAS BEEN OVERSPREADING NORTHWEST HALF OF
FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY COOL NIGHT. HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD. WITH
FRONT SLOWING...WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS GOING IN SE KS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES...AS NAM APPEARS TO BE OVERLY
GENEROUS WITH QPF DURING THE DAY. 1200 UTC RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF ARE
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY DISPLACED IN LOCATION OF MUCH
SMALLER QPF. WRF-KF FOR THAT TIME FRAME IS DRY. WILL RUN WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTH OF KICT AND THEN ROUGHLY  SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 400 TUE NIGHT. THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LEAST CAPPING. WITH ONLY LIMITED CLOUDS AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
WELL INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.

WED-THU:
MODELS ALL COMING AROUND TO THE SAME SOLUTION WITH BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SW AND LEAST IN THE NE. HAVE TWEAKED
GRIDS TO SHOW THIS GRADIENT. MAINLY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THE WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. MUCH BETTER CHANCES APPEAR
TO BE ON WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU WHEN DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FLOW.

FRI-MON:
ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WORTH INCLUDING AT THIS POINT IS ON
SAT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. WHILE ECMWF/GFS NOT
IDENTICAL...BUT BOTH HINT AT PRECIPITATION IN MOIST RETURN FLOW.
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER ON FRI BEHIND FRONT AND ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST KS WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE WARMING TREND
SHOULD COMMENCE STARTING SAT. BELIEVE FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN WHAT IS INDICATED...WITH THICKNESSES
FROM GFS/ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE ALL SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
INTIALIZATION GRIDS AND NO CONSENSUS TO DEVIATE FROM IT. SUSPECT
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S SAT/LOWER-
MID 90S SUN-MON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER
90S. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  87  63  86 /  10  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      57  85  60  85 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          61  88  60  86 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        60  89  61  87 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  88  65  87 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         49  85  54  81 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      52  87  56  82 /  10  20  10  20
SALINA          56  87  56  86 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       58  88  57  85 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     66  87  68  86 /  20  10  30  20
CHANUTE         62  86  62  85 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            61  87  60  84 /  10  10  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    63  88  63  86 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
827 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

KSZ100-290215-
LABETTE-
827 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LABETTE COUNTY...

AT 825 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALTAMONT...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF PARSONS...
AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 9508 3711 9507 3709 9539 3722 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 257DEG 13KT 3719 9530

CARUSO