Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GREAT BEND AT
18Z.  THIS LOW WAS PART OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA /AND AREAS FURTHER NORTH/...TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  THIS WILL BRING DESTABILIZING COOLER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS TO THE REGION...CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.  THESE ARE ALSO A BIG PART OF THE STORMS
ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS OF
1945Z...THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CAN BE SEEN WELL ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

TONIGHT...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.  RUC SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.  DURING THE DAY...THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS HAD A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AS THE WINDS HAVE VEERED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  THIS HAS ADDED TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT SHOULD BE BY 23Z.  0-6KM SHEAR IS MARGINAL
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 30-35 KNOTS.
THAT SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE.

SUNDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FAR REMOVED FROM THE FRONT...ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
STORMS EXPECTED.

MONDAY-SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
FRONT THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND BY WEDNESDAY...STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN AT THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL ALL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND IN THE MIDDLE AND LATTERN PORTION OF THE
WEEK.  BY FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL KEEP ALL
OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE NORTH.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN HAZARDS: WINDS AHEAD OF/BEHIND COLD FRONT...AND THUNDERSTORMS.

S-SWRLY GUSTS 25-35KT WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF FRONT THIS PM/EARLY
EVE. COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH RSL AROUND 20-21Z...SLN/HUT
01-02Z...AND ICT ~03-04Z. SCATTERED-BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS PM/EVE WHICH COULD
PRODUCE OUTFLOW AHEAD OF ACTUAL FRONT. WIND GUSTS 40-50 KT AND
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. WILL CARRY TEMPO
TS AT HUT/SLN SITES WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF STORMS AFFECTING
THOSE SITES...AND VCTS AT ICT. WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH SOME GUSTS
20-25 KT THIS EVE IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  79  57  80 /  50  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      56  78  54  80 /  50  10   0   0
NEWTON          57  77  53  78 /  50  20  10   0
ELDORADO        59  78  54  79 /  40  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  79  58  80 /  40  30  20  10
RUSSELL         52  77  51  81 /  20  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      53  78  52  81 /  20  10   0   0
SALINA          56  78  51  80 /  50  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       57  77  52  79 /  50  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     65  81  59  79 /  30  40  30  10
CHANUTE         64  79  57  78 /  40  40  10  10
IOLA            64  78  57  77 /  30  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    65  80  58  78 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
326 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

KSZ047-192100-
BARTON-
326 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON COUNTY...

AT 322 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF PAWNEE ROCK...OR 8 MILES SOUTH
OF GREAT BEND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3853 9880 3852 9848 3851 9848 3826 9867
      3826 9898
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 214DEG 39KT 3829 9882

LAWSON