Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATES WILL FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FOR TONIGHT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS THE
REGION.

TONIGHT
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK
OFF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE THE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR ALOFT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STEERING
WINDS WILL DIRECT SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WEAK UPPER WAVE SPREADS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS.

TUE-THU
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH OF KANSAS DURING THE
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WHICH FAVORS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF KANSAS...HOWEVER SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER SIGNAL FOR
ELEVATED STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER
WAVE. LINGERING ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
COULD COOL DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN MOVING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS RIPE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR
ALOFT. SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTATED MORE PERPENDICULAR TO DRYLINE WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED: FRI-MON
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR KANSAS DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH. THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT THE MOST LIKING TIME FRAME AT THIS
JUNCTURE IS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CHANCES OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXTEND INTO MONDAY WITH UPPER WAVE STILL
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

JAKUB

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LINGERING IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO MAINLY VFR BASES/CIGS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO A SMALL PORTION
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF WICHITA. FOR
NOW WILL RELEGATE MENTION TO CB IN KICT TAF. SOME PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND DAWN OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH WILL ONLY SHOW MVFR CATEGORY WITH THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  66  48  62 /  40  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      47  66  47  61 /  30  10  20  10
NEWTON          47  65  46  61 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        47  66  47  62 /  30  10  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  67  49  63 /  50  10  30  10
RUSSELL         44  67  47  59 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      46  65  47  59 /  20  10  20  10
SALINA          44  65  45  60 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       46  65  46  60 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     49  71  47  64 /  20  10  20  10
CHANUTE         46  68  44  62 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            46  68  43  61 /  20   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    48  69  46  63 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
523 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-102230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
523 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE FLINT HILLS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT
EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF
HUTCHINSON...TO WICHITA...WINFIELD LINE. LARGE HAIL TO GOLF-BALL
SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
BE STRONG WITH HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR THE KANSAS
REGION FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. EPISODES OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER OUTLOOKS AND
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SCENARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF A
HUTCHINSON TO WICHITA...TO WINFIELD LINE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
410 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             N EL DORADO             37.82N 96.86W
04/09/2012  M0.75 INCH       BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MWM

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