Areal Flood Warning 6, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

.MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVE UPDATE...
AT 725 PM CDT...WHAT HAD BEEN A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA HAD MORPHED INTO
ONE DOMINANT CELL THAT WAS MOVG E/SE ACROSS THE HARVEY/SEDGWICK COUNTY
LINE. PER KVNX DOPPLER...STRONGEST CORE SITUATED OVER SEDGWICK/VALLEY
CENTER WHERE 1 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED 4 NNW OF VALLEY CENTER AT
722 PM CDT. CELL SHOWING SIGNS OF SWD DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL SEDGWICK
COUNTY. THRU 830 PM GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL TO SHIFT E/SE TOWARD...THEN
ACROSS...MUCH OF BUTLER COUNTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS ON STG-SVR TSRA POTENTIAL OVER KICT TIL ~03Z
WHERE SVR #116 IS IN EFFECT. COLD FRONT ALONG WHICH CELLS HAD
DEVELOPED IS MOVG SLOWLY SE BUT TSRA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS
AIRMASS OVER SC KS IS SLOWLY STABILIZING. TSRA RISK FOR KICT TO
DIMINISH BY 03Z. OTHERWISE...ALL 5 TERMINALS TO REMAIN IN VFR STATUS
THROUGHOUT 03/00Z TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012/

DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH
PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE AID OF MID-LEVEL
COOLING WITH SHORTWAVE TROF COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE 22Z-01Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS ALONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. SBCAPE OF 3000 J/KG
AND 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY
MAY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET VEERS TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DECREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT IN CENTRAL KS BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. -JMC

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA ON FRIDAY. A STABLE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY AND PULLED LOW POPS ANCHORED IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ZONES.
PREFER THE GFS DEPICTION WITH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND NO
FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AS THE DIFFUSE FRONT WEAKENS AND IS
FORCED SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED MILD
SPRING WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S SAT. THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY LEADING TO THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. SOME CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. THIS PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY-EARLY
MONDAY AND THE PAST COUPLE OF GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWED A LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE LACK OF
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND CONTINUE WITH
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FROPA AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION.

MON-THU...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. MAINTAINED LOW POPS THROUGH EARLY
MON EVENING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF BUT A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN MORE RAPID CLEARING MON NIGHT.
MID/UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD MIDWEEK. -MWM

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND BEFORE RISING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH GREENUP IS WELL UNDERWAY...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUN-MON.

MWM

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

EXPECTING ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS
IN THE 22Z-03Z TIME PERIOD...ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT AND
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED.
WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT HUT AND ICT...WITH ONLY CB CLOUD DECK AT SLN
AND CNU. CONVERGENCE WEAKENS LATER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
VEERS TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
FRONT IN CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  80  57  82 /  70  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  56  83 /  40  10  10   0
NEWTON          57  79  56  81 /  70  10  10   0
ELDORADO        59  80  56  81 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  80  57  82 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         48  80  53  83 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  80  53  83 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          52  80  58  85 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       54  79  57  83 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  82  58  84 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  80  56  82 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            59  79  56  82 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  80  56  83 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
442 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302145-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
442 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BEFORE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
OF 60 TO 70 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO MCPHERSON.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
826 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     HAIL             2 N WEST WICHITA        37.72N 97.46W
03/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
837 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             3 SE MAIZE              37.74N 97.43W
03/29/2012  E1.75 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AT 29TH N AND RIDGE RANGING IN
            SIZE FROM MARBLES TO GOLF BALLS

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
842 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             5 SE COLWICH            37.73N 97.47W
03/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 MINUTES OF HAIL RANGING FROM DIME SIZE TO A FEW JAGGED
            PIECES TO 1 INCH

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
846 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             2 N DOWNTOWN WICHITA    37.72N 97.34W
03/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
847 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HAIL             4 WSW BEL AIRE          37.75N 97.34W
03/29/2012  E1.75 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   STORM CHASER

            HALF DOLLAR TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT 37TH AND
            BROADWAY IN WICHITA

&&

MWM