Areal Flood Warning 27, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE ONGOING AND CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AFTER SUNSET. COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AND IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...EXPANDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WEST TO EAST. TIMING AT
KRSL IS MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.

BILLINGS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012/

DISCUSSION...

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR WICHITA TO
EMPORIA BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED AFTER 03-04Z ALONG/NORTH OF THE
FRONT WHEN A STRONG LLJ NOSES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 25+ KNOTS MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1.3-1.6
INCHES OR 150-160 PERCENT OF NORMAL THROUGH WED SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG/NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE 1-2+ INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED MORNING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...MAINTAINED MID POPS/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN AREA IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WAS HANDLED
WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE AT
THIS TIME. TIMING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS PROGGED TO
SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...TRENDED POPS DOWN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA HELPING TO DRIVE THE
REMNANT FRONT FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIMITING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS BUT MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN/PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH. A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS WE MOVE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS MON-TUE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S RETURNING.

MWM

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO NORTHERN MO. ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED TS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS PM/EVE ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT WITH MODEST CONVERGENCE/WEAKENING CAP. AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 03Z IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AS
A 45-50 KT SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVING. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT CNU...ICT AND
HUT SITES TONIGHT. THE FRONT MAY SAG SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY DEPENDING
ON TONIGHTS COVERAGE OF STORMS. A LIGHT NE-ERLY WIND CAN BE
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH A S-SWRLY WIND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS THIS PM.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  82  64  78 /  80  30  50  50
HUTCHINSON      62  79  62  76 /  70  30  50  50
NEWTON          62  80  62  76 /  70  40  50  50
ELDORADO        63  81  63  77 /  80  40  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  84  65  80 /  80  30  60  50
RUSSELL         59  79  58  76 /  30  30  40  40
GREAT BEND      60  79  60  75 /  40  30  40  50
SALINA          61  81  61  77 /  60  30  40  40
MCPHERSON       62  80  61  76 /  70  30  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  64  80 /  80  40  60  50
CHANUTE         64  84  64  78 /  80  50  60  50
IOLA            64  83  64  77 /  80  50  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    65  85  64  79 /  80  50  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
447 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-262200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
447 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL OF DIME
TO QUARTER SIZE...AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT... WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OCCURRING THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1013 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     HAIL             WEST WICHITA            37.69N 97.46W
09/25/2012  E0.75 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ARL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1015 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     HAIL             WICHITA MID CONTINENT A 37.66N 97.44W
09/25/2012  M0.75 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

JMB

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