Areal Flood Warning 20, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN CONCERN: WIDELY SCATTERED MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AM ALONG/EAST OF
I-135 IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850 MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT SLN/ICT/CNU FOR
NOW. MIXING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HOLD UP TONIGHT ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF.

JMC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SYNOPSIS:
ANOTHER MCS HAS TRACKED ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.  THIS
MCS WAS AIDED BY A WEAK PIECE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY ENERGY.
OTHERWISE A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO
HOME...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...AND AS THOSE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...LOW STRATUS IS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.

TODAY:
IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
SUBSIDENCE TO BE DOMINANT AND HAVE CUT POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING HOURS.  LOW STRATUS HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND EXPECT IT TO BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY IN THE WARM MOIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS.  THE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HELP LIFT THE
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY BREAK OUT TO SUN.  THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST SOME AND FEEL IT COULD REACH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS.  THIS WILL CLEAR OUT SKIES AS THE VERTICAL PROFILE BECOMES
DRY ADIABATIC NEAR RUSSELL AND HAYS.  BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90 FOR THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE LAST FEW NIGHTS OF MCS'S HAVE A
LARGE GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER 70S IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

FEEL THAT PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ARE MINIMAL.  BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND MINIMUM INHIBITION WILL EXIST
FURTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA...IOWA AND NORTH.  OVERALL THE CIN NEAR
THE DRYLINE ACROSS KANSAS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...BUT IF THE AREA NEAR HAYS/RUSSEL IS ABLE TO
BECOME DRY ADIABATIC...A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP...CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS FAIRLY LOW.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY:
OVERALL THROUGH MID-WEEK THE PATTERN REMAINS MUCH THE SAME.  THE
DRYLINE WILL HANG OUT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHILE A STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY.  THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO KEEP KANSAS
RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL KANSAS PUSHING 90.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL
PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY.  CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES EAST AS LIKE TODAY...THE BETTER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN FARTHER
NORTH.

FRIDAY - MONDAY:
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS
PLUNGING A DISTURBANCE SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDING IN OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE DISTURBANCE
FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  WITH THESE DISCREPANCIES
HAVE PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
AND WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MAY...IN THE 80S...BUT COOL SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST WITH THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LATE
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE.

BILLINGS

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL NEAR 12Z.

THE MCS THAT IMPACTED THE REGION IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND
CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE STRATIFORM RAIN AREA TO IMPACT KCNU FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AFTER THE MCS EXITS TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD...IMPACTING REGIONS THAT HAVE HAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COULD CAUSE CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES TO DROP INTO MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
08-09Z. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO MIX FROM GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  85  67 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      84  66  87  67 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          82  66  85  67 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        82  67  85  67 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  67  85  68 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         89  62  89  64 /  20  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      90  62  89  65 /  20  20  10  20
SALINA          85  66  88  68 /  20  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       84  66  87  67 /  20  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     79  68  84  68 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         79  67  84  67 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            79  66  84  67 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  68  84  68 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-021145-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
641 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING CONTINUES TO AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS DUE TO
RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 135. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIME SIZE HAIL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT IN CENTRAL
KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC/BILLINGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
620 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012

KSZ052-053-011145-
CHASE-MARION-
620 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHASE AND MARION COUNTIES...

AT 614 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF CEDAR POINT...OR 7 MILES
EAST OF MARION...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS MARION
AND CHASE COUNTIES...AND A FEW OF THESE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 9644 3824 9728 3850 9727 3853 9637
TIME...MOT...LOC 1120Z 271DEG 32KT 3831 9682

CARUSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE SEDAN             37.13N 96.18W
05/01/2012  M2.78 INCH       CHAUTAUQUA         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED 2.78 INCHES OF RAIN FROM LAST
            EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. TIME OF REPORT IS
            ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

VJP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>