Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
718 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-135.

LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE EAST OF
I-135. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS SITUATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO REMAIN OVER SE KS ALL
NIGHT AND THROUGH TUE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 12Z AS ANOTHER JET MAX LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ONCE AGAIN PLACING MOST OF EASTERN KS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. EVEN WITH THIS PERSISTENT RAIN...NOT
EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY IT...WITH WORSE CASE SCENARIO
BEING MVFR CIGS. ALSO EXPECTING SHOWERS TO EXPAND OVER CENTRAL KS BY
TUE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME FOG OVERNIGHT WEST OF I-135.
BASED ON CURRENT MOISTURE PROFILES FEEL THAT IF IT DOES DEVELOP IT
WOULD HAVE TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS MOISTURE JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE
DECREASES FAIRLY QUICK.

LAWSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-TUE:
WHILE THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS EARLY ON...INCREASING LIFT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY TUE SHOULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL
LIFT/QPF SUGGEST FAR SOUTHEAST KS WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVIEST/LONGEST
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...SO GOING FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME...AND NOT ANTICIPATING AN EXTENSION FOR NOW. BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN ALLEN...NEOSHO AND LABETTE. NOT A LOT OF
CHANGE EXPECTED IN TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER OF NOTE...NAM/ECMWF BOTH
SUBSTANTIALLY CLEAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS TONIGHT...WHICH IF IT
VERIFIES COULD LEAD TO EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOG/STRATUS IS
ANTICIPATED AS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IF SKIES CAN SUBSTANTIALLY CLEAR...CHANCE OF DENSE FOG
WILL INCREASE.

WED-THU:
GFS/ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW...WHICH
WILL KEEP THREAT OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME NARROW DRY SLOT BEING WRAPPED UP INTO THE
LOW...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO BRIEF AREAS OF LITTLE OR NO POPS AND
SOME CLEARING. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR TIMING/LOCATION AND WILL
KEEP POPS GOING AREA WIDE AND SHADE VALUES A BIT TO THE MORE
TOWARDS BOTH THE WET/DRY AREAS. MAXES BOTH DAYS WILL LIKELY BE
HELD TO AROUND 60 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

FRI-MON:
RAIN MAY LINGER INTO FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY UPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH. DRYING/WARMING TREND APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY MON. SUSPECT MOIST GROUND WILL REQUIRE A
COUPLE DAYS TO DRY OUT...BUT GIVEN 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES
BY MON...HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 AREAWIDE.

-HOWERTON

FIRE WEATHER...

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AREAWIDE. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD HELP GREEN AREA UP THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN LESS FUELS.
-HOWERTON

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. REDUCED VISIBILITIES
HAVE LEAD TO MVFR ALTHOUGH CEILINGS HAVE PREVAILED IN THE 6-8K FEET
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA OF RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE KSLN-KICT AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT KCNU. SOME CONCERN
THAT LOW STRATUS/CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND TRENDED AREA
TAFS TOWARD DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  59  44  60 /  20  60  20  70
HUTCHINSON      44  60  41  61 /  20  40  20  50
NEWTON          46  57  43  60 /  20  70  20  70
ELDORADO        45  59  43  59 /  30  90  30  90
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  60  44  60 /  30  80  20  70
RUSSELL         38  61  42  60 /  20  20  20  50
GREAT BEND      39  60  40  58 /  20  20  20  50
SALINA          47  59  44  62 /  20  50  20  60
MCPHERSON       46  59  42  62 /  20  50  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     53  59  46  62 / 100 100  50  70
CHANUTE         54  60  46  65 / 100 100  50  80
IOLA            55  61  47  65 / 100 100  60  80
PARSONS-KPPF    52  60  46  64 / 100 100  50  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ071-072-095-096-
098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
721 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-202115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
721 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY RECEIVE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THE THREAT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG OR SEVERE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...HOWEVER
ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

LAWSON