Areal Flood Warning 12, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE...WITH STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KSLN AND NOT TOO FAR FROM KHUT AT
START OF FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS AT KRSL/KICT...AS
TIMING OF STORMS IS A BIT UNCLEAR AND IMPACT IF INCLUDED WOULD BE
SIGNIFICANT. 00-06 UTC WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE AT
KHUT/KICT/KSLN. WITH DRYLINE REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE
AREA...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO REGENERATE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS...LARGE HAIL AND 50KT+ WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THE SEVERE STORMS. ANTICIPATE DRYLINE SHOULD ENTER THE
AREA AROUND 0700 UTC AND NOT EXIT SOUTHEAST KS UNTIL AFTER 1200
UTC. VERY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED BEHIND DRYLINE.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN: THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MOST
CONCERNING PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH AMPLIFIED SEVERE THREAT FOR
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. OTHERWISE...THE ISSUES INCLUDE THE POPS FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA AND ANY
POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND.

TONIGHT:
DRYLINE WILL BE EVEN SLOWER TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR ALREADY IN
PLACE...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS JUST WEST OF AREA AT THIS
TIME. BELIEVE CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THESE TO CONTINUE AS
THEY MOVE EAST...WITH WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY HAVING BETTER
INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNSET. GIVEN HODOGRAPHS...SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...WELL INTO THE EVENING. DRYLINE
SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUASI STEADY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GRADIENT WINDS. -HOWERTON

SUNDAY:
BETTER ALIGNMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO SLIDE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS FIRST
THEN THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS CONCERN OF STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANY WIND
HEADLINES RIGHT NOW...BUT THE NEXT FORECAST MAY DECIDE TO GO FORWARD
WITH IT. THERE MAY BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
EXITING LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
HIGH WITH THE MAJOR SOURCES OF INSTABILITY DIMINISHING. DID DECREASE
THE POPS SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY:
A SECONDARY WAVE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AT
500MB THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON MONDAY...YET HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE TO 850MB. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL AND POTENTIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PV DOES INDICATE A PIECE ENERGY MOVING WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER
MODELS VARY IN LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION. THUS
DECIDED TO WAIT ON CHANCES FOR NOW.

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY:
THE NEXT TROUGH WILL START TO DO MOST OF ITS DEVELOPMENT WHEN IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES FOR WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...HOWEVER  850MB
INDICATES THE MAIN SYSTEM TO STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...THERE IS INDICATION OF THE LOW PASSING THROUGH ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THUS KEPT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT TROUGH IN THIS EXTENDED IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE
WITH MODEL VARIATION IN THE TIMING...DEPTH AND EXACT LOCATION. THIS
COULD CHANGE ANY POTENTIAL IN POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO
CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE GOOD SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

VP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/

UPDATE...

12 UTC AND LATER RUC MODEL RUNS SUGGEST DRYLINE WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL
IMPACT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...BEST
INSTABILITY/WEAKEST CAP IS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS WITH CAP HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL/
SOUTHEAST KS. GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
SO FAR...MAY BE TOUGH TO BREAK CAP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT IN
VISIBILITY SATELLITE SOUTH/WEST OF ICT. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN
THIS AREA...CLEARLY ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/
SEVERE STORMS. BIGGEST THREAT TONIGHT IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 400 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...EAST TO HIGHWAY 99 IN
THE 00-04 UTC TIME FRAME...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED STORM RISK
03-06 UTC ACROSS CENTRAL KS EAST OF I-135. -HOWERTON

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE...WITH STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KRSL AT START. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
KSLN/KHUT/KICT...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO RAMP UP TOWARDS
0000 UTC...WITH 0000 UTC-06 UTC THE MOST ACTIVE AT KHUT/KICT/KSLN.
IFR CONDITIONS...LARGE HAIL AND 50KT+ WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE SEVERE STORMS. DRYLINE SHOULD ENTER THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING END TO PRECIPITATION AND LOSS OF
CEILING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED BEHIND DRYLINE.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  71  44  66 /  60  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      52  69  44  66 /  50  10   0  10
NEWTON          54  70  45  65 /  60  10  10  10
ELDORADO        57  71  45  67 /  70  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  72  45  69 /  60  10  10  10
RUSSELL         48  63  39  64 /  50  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      49  64  39  64 /  60  20  10  20
SALINA          52  69  43  65 /  60  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       52  69  44  65 /  60  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  74  47  68 /  50  50  10  10
CHANUTE         63  73  47  67 /  50  50  10  10
IOLA            63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  73  47  68 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
440 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-152145-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
440 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH.
SOME TORNADOES ARE PROBABLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND THE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DIME TO NICKEL SIZED
HAIL.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE FLINT HILLS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

HOWERTON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     TORNADO          5 E BENTON              37.79N 97.02W
04/14/2012                   BUTLER             KS   STORM CHASER

            ROPE TORNADO.

&&

BDK