Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
812 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS PER GOING RADAR TREND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
MCS TRACKING INTO NWRN AL IS SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SHOALS. OTHER ISOLD-SCT SHRA (AND FUTURE STORMS) WERE TAKING SHAPE
AHEAD OF THE SYS...MUCH LIKE AN EARLIER ROGUE CELL IN
MARSHALL/JACKSON COUNTIES EARLIER THIS MORNING. INITIAL LOOK AT 12Z
RAOBS AT OHX/BMX INDICATE PLENTY OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/CAPE ALOFT
WITH 20-30KT OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN NWRN/NC AL.

KULA
&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 709 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2012/
FOR 12Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE AT MSL BY 09/13Z
AND HSV BY 09/15Z. ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY OCCUR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED BKN035 WITH VCTS/CB AS
PREVAILING COND THRU 09/21Z. STRATUS MAY BUILD DOWN TO A MORE SOLID
MVFR DECK IN WAKE OF MORNING PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHRA. CIG CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT FROM THIS
EVENING THRU EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS WELL. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA AND LOWER CIGS BY END OF TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BTWN 160-200 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5
KNOTS.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2012/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE RIDGING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TROUGH...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH...INCLUDING ONE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES. AHEAD OF THE MIDSOUTH TROUGH...AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SPILLING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RECENT C-G
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH REGIONAL RADAR INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
SUGGESTING THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWFA...SO HAVE SHOWN A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH PRECIPITATION GRADIENT. WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS
OF STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THESE WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ON ANY
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER...FAVORABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT H85 SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER THE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT
POINT...ATTENTION WILL FOCUS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TIMING THE FRONT...WITH IT ARRIVING
IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...AND REACHING THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 00Z SATURDAY. WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT
TO THE PARENT H5 LOW ON FRIDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
FRONT NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THE CWFA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY OWING TO ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE WILL BE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY EVENING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA...BUT WILL EXIT THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A MUCH ANTICIPATED COOL-
DOWN OF TEMPERATURES AND A DROP IN DEWPOINTS...WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE MID 80S. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MIDDLE AND LOW 60S EACH NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A LESS MERIDIONAL PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY
ALMOST ANY PERIOD GIVEN LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS. MADE VERY FEW
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

JLL

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
421 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

ALZ008-091000-
MARSHALL AL-
421 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY
UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

AT 415 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GUNTERSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GUNTERSVILLE...GRANT AND UNION GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3426 8632 3439 8648 3458 8626 3445 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0915Z 225DEG 20KT 3436 8636

70/DD

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