Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
242 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES IS WELL NORTH OF THE CONUS...WITH A T/R/T/R
PATTERN PREVAILING SOUTH OF THE BORDER. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW...A SHEARED VORT AXIS IS STRETCHED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...PLENTIFUL CU DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND
SCATTERED SHRA ARE DOTTING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

WITHIN THE SOUPY AIRMASS...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PRODUCING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHERN GOMEX/MOBILE BAY AREA WILL CONTINUE NORTH THIS
EVENING...AND THIS COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT /ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/...SO OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE HUMID
AIRMASS ALONG WITH GENERALLY STAGNANT SURFACE FLOW MAY YIELD PATCHY
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WARM...IN THE LOW
70S.

MIDLEVEL RIDGING SHOULD NUDGE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW FROM THE
EAST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO THE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE. HOWEVER...ANY OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE CAPACITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKET OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE HOT...AND WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING TO AROUND 70...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FEEL
LIKE THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 90S.

DIURNALLY FOCUSED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 70S. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT
STALLING ACROSS THE CWFA BY THURSDAY...SO WILL CARRY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND.

JLL

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS AFTN...SO WILL MAINTAIN
VCTS AT KMSL/KHSV THRU 15/02Z. BRIEF IFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE PSBL...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY CONTAIN +RA...FQT LTG AND GUSTY WINDS.

MVFR BR MAY DVLP LATE TNGT DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AREAS WHERE RAIN FALLS TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF 4-5SM BR
CONDS AT KMSL/KHSV FROM 15/10Z-15/14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  91  71  92  71 /  40  30  20  30  30
SHOALS        73  92  72  92  72 /  50  40  30  30  30
VINEMONT      72  90  71  91  73 /  40  30  20  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  70  91  71  91  70 /  40  40  30  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   71  91  70  91  72 /  30  20  20  30  30
FORT PAYNE    70  90  69  91  70 /  30  30  20  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
459 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

ALZ016-142245-
CULLMAN-
459 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

AT 457 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLACK BOTTOM...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  HANCEVILLE.
  GOOD HOPE.
  PHELAN.
  BALDWIN...CULLMAN.
  SOUTH VINEMONT.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3427 8707 3430 8678 3403 8675 3398 8697
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 171DEG 18KT 3403 8686

SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
504 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

ALZ002>004-142245-
COLBERT-FRANKLIN-LAWRENCE-
504 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLBERT...FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 501 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA GRANGE MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LA GRANGE.
  NE SMITH.
  SPRING VALLEY.
  TOWN CREEK.
  LEIGHTON.
  FORD CITY...MUSCLE SHOALS.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 8764 3478 8768 3481 8759 3482 8748
      3481 8744 3480 8743 3480 8739 3446 8740
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 178DEG 19KT 3454 8753

SL

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