Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
333 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT RECENTLY FORMED ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAVE
MOVED FURTHER NORTH INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. OTHER ACTIVITY WAS TRYING
TO FORM OVER NW ALABAMA AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE
LATTER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. EARLIER...12Z ANALYSIS OF 500MB NOTED -20C TEMPS OVER
WESTERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW.

THIS ACTIVITY FORMED ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT AS OF THIS WRITING
WAS NOTED APPROXIMATELY FROM NEAR NASHVILLE AND WINCHESTER...WEST OF
FORT PAYNE...AND NEAR BIRMINGHAM. ANOTHER MCS CONTINUED MOVING TO
THE SE FROM THE GULF COAST. A SIMILAR FEATURE YESTERDAY DELAYED
STORM DEVELOPMENT HERE. DRY SLOTTING WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
FURTHER SURFACE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MAKES FOR
A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...WITH 700MB TEMPS -2 TO -4C WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE OUR LOCAL ATMOSPHERE...AND HELP BRING MORE BROAD SCALE
UPWARD MOTION/OMEGA. GIVEN STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES...DESPITE
RATHER SLIM SURFACE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...IT IS LIKELY THAT MORE
STORMS WILL FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...THE MAIN THREAT POSED BY THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE STORM THREAT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA. COLDER AIR
MOVING BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOMEWHAT COOLER
CONDITIONS THAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED AS OF LATE. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...WITH HIGHS
GOOD FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

DESPITE THE COOLER SHOT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NICELY...
WARNING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR SATURDAY AND EASTER SUNDAY. THIS
WARMUP WILL SHORT LIVED...AS AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL REDUCE
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S NE ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND SOUTH. THIS AGAIN IS SUGGESTIVE THAT PATCHY
FROSTING AND/OR A LIGHT FREEZE COULD OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LAST NIGHTS GFS ENSEMBLE NUMBERS FOR HUNTSVILLE GO AS LOW
AS 39 TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MODEL ITSELF SHOWING 40...AND THE
MORE RECENT 12Z RUN...41. TEMPERATURES AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S...A TAD BELOW RUNNING
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 70S.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1241 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CEILING HEIGHTS AOA 20K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
20Z BEFORE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND 4K FT OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO
E. UPPER LOW/WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
ALSO RESULT IN CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY. IFR VIS/ADDITIONAL FUEL REQUIREMENTS MAY DEVELOP
IN/NEAR THE HEAVIER TSRA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CEILING HEIGHTS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS EVENING/AFTER 00Z FRI...WITH
SHRA/TSRA DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL ALSO BE TURING TOWARD THE N AOA 10KT LATER TONIGHT.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    48  67  46  75  51 /  30  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        48  67  45  74  50 /  30  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      47  67  47  73  51 /  30  10   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  47  66  44  72  50 /  40  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   47  67  47  72  51 /  60  10   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    49  68  44  74  47 /  60  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
138 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-061000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
138 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SLIDES EAST...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

JLL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
147 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

TNZ076-096-051930-
LINCOLN-MOORE-
147 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN AND MOORE COUNTIES UNTIL
230 PM CDT...

AT 148 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOLINO...OR NEAR FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  KELSO.
  MIMOSA.
  MULBERRY...SMITHLAND.
  BOONEVILLE.
  BOONEVILLE.
  LOIS...HURDLOW.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 8626 3528 8627 3527 8628 3524 8628
      3522 8631 3522 8630 3519 8631 3518 8630
      3517 8632 3514 8633 3501 8660 3514 8667
      3540 8629
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 238DEG 16KT 3512 8655

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
447 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

ALZ003-052245-
FRANKLIN-
447 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

AT 448 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ATWOOD...OR 9 MILES EAST OF RED BAY...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  DEMPSEY.
  BELGREEN.
  DUKETON.
  ROCKWOOD...ISBELL.
  SPRUCE PINE...RUSSELLVILLE.
  PHIL CAMPBELL...PLEASANT RIDGE.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3453 8757 3431 8758 3435 8810 3448 8808
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 271DEG 21KT 3442 8799