Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
352 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL AND ERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EARLY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WELL EVIDENT IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM REPORTS RECEIVED THUS FAR
HAVE BEEN PREDOM LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SPORADIC REPORTS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL SIZE HAIL.
TORNADO WATCH 7 CURRENTLY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL
AND ERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH COUNTIES ALONG AND W OF THE
ADVANCING SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HRS AS THE SVR WX THREAT CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD. SOME LINGERING
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE SHOWERS IN NATURE. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT ITSELF REMAINS LOCATED WELL TO THE W OF THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
FROM THE MIDWEST REGION SWD INTO THE EXTREME NW GULF. MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD WELL INTO THE LATE MORNING
PERIOD...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE W. CLOUD COVER THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO BREAK WITH THE
FRONT LAGGING WELL TO THE W. THE LATEST MODEL SUITES HAVE THE FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO WORK INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

AFTER TODAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET FOR AT LEAST A
DAY OR SO AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SE REGION. ANY GLIMPSE OF SEASONAL LIKE CONDITIONS
THOUGH LOOK TO BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS
DEVELOPS OVER EXTREME SE TX. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS STATES HEADING
TOWARD MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.
THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE LATEST MODELS WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE PATTERN BY WED. IN ANY CASE...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS ENERGY/SFC LOW LIFTING TOWARD THE NE WED AND THU
WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY INITIALLY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...MOST OF
THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE PREDOM SHOWERS AT LEAST THROUGH WED. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY THEN BE ABLE TO LIFT NWD ALONG A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT ON THU...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN
NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA TO
THE ENE FRI WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF.

A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO BUILD SEWD ACROSS THE
MID PLAINS BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD. AS THIS NEXT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION...OVERALL TEMPS AND CONDITIONS
LOOK TO TREND MORE SEASONAL HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH THE WX
PATTERN LOOKING FAIRLY NICE AND QUIET.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
ADVANCING BANDS OF +TSRA IN MS. LLWS IS LIKELY ALREADY IN PROGRESS AS
WELL WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE SFC. INITIAL STORMS
WILL ARRIVE IN THE KMSL VCNTY BFR 07Z WHILE THE MAIN SQUALL LINE WILL
ARRIVE 07-09Z. IN HSV...THIS WILL BE IN THE 09-11Z TIMEFRAME. THE
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE STORMS MONDAY MORNING
AROUND 12-15Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO ~250-260DEG WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VFR CONDS XPCTD DURG THE
REMAINDER OF THE PD.

KULA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    64  36  60  40  62 /  40   0  10  20  40
SHOALS        64  35  61  40  61 /  20   0  10  20  40
VINEMONT      64  36  60  41  62 /  40   0  10  20  40
FAYETTEVILLE  62  34  60  38  59 /  20   0  10  10  40
ALBERTVILLE   65  35  62  40  62 /  50   0  10  20  40
FORT PAYNE    65  34  62  39  62 /  50   0  10  20  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALZ001>010-016.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TNZ076-096-097.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-230900-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
634 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
THRESHOLDS. AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
THIS EVENING ...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
3 AM...AND THEN EXIT INTO GEORGIA BY 6 AM.

THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WITH THE
GROUNDS ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY HEAVILY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. PONDING OF
WATER ON SOME AREA ROADS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN
SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS REQUESTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FIRST RESPONSE AGENCIES ARE ALSO REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
253 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW MADISON           34.75N 86.77W
01/23/2012  E45 MPH          MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT BALCH ROAD AND
            HIGHWAY 72.

&&

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
301 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

ALZ006-009-TNZ096-097-230945-
FRANKLIN-JACKSON-LINCOLN-MADISON-
301 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN...JACKSON...LINCOLN AND
MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CST...

AT 257 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALABAMA A AND M UNIVERSITY...MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MAYSVILLE...NEW MARKET...PLEVNA.
  PRINCETON...HOLLYTREE...ESTILLFORK...SKYLINE AND HYTOP.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CST MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 8574 3469 8665 3499 8674 3517 8588
      3500 8586 3499 8578
TIME...MOT...LOC 0901Z 255DEG 44KT 3480 8656

RSB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
314 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NNW GURLEY              34.70N 86.38W
01/23/2012                   MADISON            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF GURLEY
            PIKE AND CAPERS ROAD. WATER WAS UP TO A PORCH OF AN
            APARTMENT AT THE 200 BLOCK OF GURLEY PIKE.

&&

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
322 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

ALZ005>007-230945-
LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
322 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIMESTONE...MADISON AND MORGAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CST...

AT 316 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TRINITY...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PRICEVILLE...MOORESVILLE...BELLE MINA.
  MADISON...TRIANA.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CST MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 8711 3464 8711 3479 8668 3458 8658
      3446 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 251DEG 33KT 3457 8701

RSB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
402 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

ALZ007-016-231030-
CULLMAN-MORGAN-
402 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CULLMAN AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL
430 AM CST...

AT 358 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARLEY...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF JASPER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LOGAN...JONES CHAPEL...WEST POINT.
  CULLMAN...BALDWIN...FAIRVIEW...BAILEYTON.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CST MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3400 8714 3400 8712 3419 8712 3438 8664
      3419 8654 3416 8657 3404 8694 3398 8714
      3399 8715
TIME...MOT...LOC 1002Z 247DEG 44KT 3409 8712

RSB