Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
403 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
BACK ON AWIPS 2 SOFTWARE...WITH OVERALL GOOD RESULTS GIVEN MOST OF
THE 12Z DATA WAS INGESTED SINCE WE CAME BACK ON-LINE. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR
THE EVENING. THE STORMS OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR THIS REGION
WERE SLOWLY APPROACHING NW ALABAMA IN A WNW TO ESE MOVEMENT. SEVERE
T-STORM WATCH NUMBER 547 IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL 10
PM...INCLUDING OUR FOUR NW COUNTIES OF LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...
FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE. OTHER MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS TRYING TO
FORM ACROSS OUR MORE CENTRAL LOCALS WITH NOT MUCH SUCCESS SO FAR...
GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL CAPPING.

THE HEAT OBVIOUSLY IS ON AGAIN...WITH HEAT INDICES ACROSS WESTERN
ALABAMA AND ADJACENT MS/TN ABOVE 105 IN MANY LOCATIONS. GIVEN
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...AND THAT MORE OF IT IS COMING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF...HAVE OPTED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MORE OF
OUR AREA (ADDED LIMESTONE...MADISON...MORGAN COUNTIES) TO OUR NW
ALABAMA COUNTIES WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS
ACROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 90S WITH A
FEW UPPER 90S POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE HUMID 70S MOST
SPOTS.

SOME RELIEF IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE LATE WEEK...AS A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE NEARS FROM THE NW. THIS WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND A
GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. HAVE STAYED IN THE HIGHER CHANCE/
SCATTERED RANGE POPS (40-50 PERCENT) FROM FRIDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY.
PRECIP WATER FORECASTS FROM THE GFS WERE GENERALLLY STAYING AROUND 2
INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. THUS...HAVE COOLED HIGHS DOWN CLOSER TO 90 WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK. THE RESULTING RETURN OF MORE SUN WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPS WARMING
BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. COULD SEE MID 90S...MAY BE HIGHER BY NEXT
TUE/WED...BUT HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER READINGS
THIS ISSUANCE.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 100 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT
ISOL TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS N AL NEARING 00Z. HAVE NOT INCLUDED
THEM IN THE TAFS ATTM BECAUSE COVERAGE/IMPACTS TO TERMINALS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BOTH SITES...WITH MVFR VIS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 07Z
AND DIPPING TO NEAR ALT REQ BY 10Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WORSE AT KMSL...ESPECIALLY IF ANY STORMS IMPACT THE AREA.

CCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>004.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ001>007.

TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
342 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-020500-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
342 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME STORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AROUND 10 PM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. IN
FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA...TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 100 DEGREES IN A FEW
SPOTS...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GREATER CHANCE OF
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
213 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

ALZ009-TNZ076-096-097-011945-
JACKSON AL-MOORE TN-LINCOLN TN-FRANKLIN TN-
213 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...SOUTH
CENTRAL MOORE...EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LYNCHBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTLAND.

LAT...LON 3529 8628 3500 8599 3485 8626 3494 8631
      3495 8629 3492 8627 3493 8626 3494 8626
      3498 8631 3499 8631 3499 8634 3519 8646
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 326DEG 16KT 3521 8635

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