Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
249 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. IN THE SOUTHEAST...MID
LEVEL FLOW IS VERY ILL-DEFINED...SAVE FOR A RETROGRADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NEARING THE GEORGIA COASTLINE. ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
DEPARTING FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES...MOISTURE NEAR THE APPALACHIANS
LEAD TO MORNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS THE CWFA. ITS ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...AND H5 FLOW
SUGGESTS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
HERE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE SURFACE
FLOW...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. SCOTTSBORO
REPORTED VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/4 SM...AND THE EVENING SHIFT WILL
NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO SEE IF THIS TREND IS AGAIN EXPECTED
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...MUCH LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

FOR TOMORROW...LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY FOG THAT LINGERS PAST THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE...AND TEMPERATURES WILL ROCKET INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S BY NOON. IN FACT...BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN
THIS WARM AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWFA...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED IN
THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE RICHEST MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED AS
THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE
OR SO WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S.
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING...AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BY DIURNALLY
MAXIMIZED...AIDED BY THE REMAINS OF THE RETROGRADING SHORTWAVE. BY
THURSDAY...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE AREA AND H5 FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA.
ULTIMATELY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
CWFA...HOWEVER A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN MID LEVEL WINDS AND THE HIGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER STORM COVERAGE...ALONG
WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S FOR HIGHS...AND
LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

JLL

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1218 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/ERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HRS. AT THIS POINT...PROB IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...AMD/UPDATES
MAY BE REQUIRED IF ANY CONVECTION APPROACHES EITHER ONE OF THE MAIN
TERMINALS. ONLY OTHER ITEM MAY BE SOME BRIEF/TEMPO -BR/MVFR VIS
BETWEEN 09-13Z TUE.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  95  73  94  73 /  10  30  20  40  30
SHOALS        71  94  72  95  73 /  10  30  20  30  30
VINEMONT      72  92  73  91  74 /  20  30  20  40  30
FAYETTEVILLE  71  93  72  93  73 /  10  30  20  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   69  93  71  91  70 /  20  30  20  40  30
FORT PAYNE    68  93  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-171000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING OF SOME ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
343 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

ALZ008-162130-
MARSHALL-
343 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARSHALL COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

AT 340 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLUMBUS CITY MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  COLUMBUS CITY.
  GUNTERSVILLE.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 8630 3450 8631 3453 8617 3437 8610
      3436 8611
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 339DEG 3KT 3448 8621

SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
347 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

ALZ004-162130-
LAWRENCE-
347 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAWRENCE COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

AT 344 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WHEELER AND CADDO MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  HILLSBORO.
  CHALYBEATE SPRINGS.
  CADDO.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 8740 3473 8734 3469 8712 3451 8710
      3450 8712
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 325DEG 6KT 3463 8727

SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
402 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

ALZ008-010-162145-
DE KALB-MARSHALL-
402 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEKALB AND MARSHALL COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITON...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ALBERTVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LATHAMVILLE.
  KILPATRICK.
  MCVILLE...HUSTLEVILLE.
  ARONA.
  ALBERTVILLE.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 8608 3420 8610 3430 8627 3443 8610
      3435 8593
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 040DEG 11KT 3434 8609

SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
410 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

ALZ006-162200-
MADISON-
410 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

AT 408 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR REDSTONE ARSENAL...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  REDSTONE ARSENAL.
  MADISON.
  TRIANA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8651 3458 8657 3458 8660 3455 8664
      3455 8667 3458 8668 3459 8671 3456 8675
      3456 8679 3464 8679 3477 8674
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 024DEG 9KT 3470 8666

SL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
430 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

ALZ003-004-162215-
FRANKLIN-LAWRENCE-
430 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES
UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 427 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF HALEYVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PHIL CAMPBELL.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8761 3431 8772 3438 8773 3443 8748
      3430 8743 3430 8760
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 344DEG 12KT 3431 8759

SL