Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
210 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY REMAINS FAIRLY
CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER CLEARING OR
MOVING SWD INTO CNTRL/SRN AL. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE TRYING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MID TN INVOF A WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAX.
CU FIELD TRYING TO FORM ACROSS THE ERN PLATEAU MAY ALSO SUGGEST THE
CAP WEAKENING A BIT...AS TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA CLIMB INTO THE
80S RANGE. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE HINTING AT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...AS FURTHER DISTURBANCES
ALOFT TRAVERSE SEWD EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK NW FLOW PATTERN. WITH BULK
SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION ALMOST NIL...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TREND MORE PULSE IN NATURE BEFORE TURNING A BIT MORE LINEAR
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PROVIDED THE MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH
ADDITIONAL MCS LIKE FEATURES DEVELOPING UPSTREAM.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WX CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FIND THEIR WAY INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS MAY BE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INCREASING A BIT ON MON...AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
A WEAK COLD FRONT OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE
MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS. STRONG EMBEDDED/UPPER SHEAR AXIS
LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE SFC FRONT...AS IT PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD MON. WITH THE THERMO PROFILE ACROSS THE
REGION XPCTED TO BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH ABUNDANT CAPE/STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON/INTO TUE ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY. BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LOOK TO BE THE
PRIMARY WX THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...TO GO ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY ON TUE...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THOUGH ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT MAY
INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION...TO GO
ALONG WITH A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN. THIS CERTAINLY
DOESN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
TSTMS TUE...ALTHOUGH THE PROB IS LOWER COMPARED TO LATE MON AT THIS
POINT. THE FRONT IS THEN XPCTED TO EXIT THE AREA TO THE E TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COOLER/DRIER AIR...OR
MORE SEASONAL LIKE CONDITIONS IN TOW AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. ISOLD/SCT
TSRA ARE PSBL THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN KMSL/KHSV TAFS. CONDS COULD DECLINE TO MVFR/IFR WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VARIBABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS PSBL IN THE
VCNTY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

PATCHY BR DVLPMT LATE TNGT MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTN OR EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO 5SM
GROUP FROM 09-13Z AT KMSL.

KULA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    65  86  65  84  61 /  30  50  60  50  30
SHOALS        64  88  65  83  60 /  30  50  60  50  30
VINEMONT      66  84  64  82  61 /  30  40  60  60  30
FAYETTEVILLE  62  83  63  82  58 /  30  50  60  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   65  84  64  82  61 /  30  40  60  60  30
FORT PAYNE    62  84  62  82  59 /  30  40  60  60  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-071000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL TO UP TO QUARTER SIZE...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MULTIPLE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

AREA WIDE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED
TO RELAY REPORTS OF LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
500 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ003-062245-
FRANKLIN-
500 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

AT 458 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BELGREEN...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
RUSSELLVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ROCKWOOD.
  DUKETON...ISBELL.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 8767 3431 8783 3442 8801 3456 8789
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 305DEG 9KT 3444 8786

SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
520 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ008-009-062300-
JACKSON-MARSHALL-
520 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 516 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF LARKINSVILLE MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LANGSTON.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 8608 3450 8623 3465 8618 3466 8605
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 018DEG 5KT 3461 8612

SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
531 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ010-062315-
DE KALB-
531 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEKALB COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GUEST...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF RAINSVILLE...
MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  SKIRUM.
  COLLINSVILLE...CROSSVILLE.
  RODENTOWN.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 8571 3425 8578 3425 8580 3424 8581
      3424 8584 3421 8584 3420 8604 3448 8594
      3450 8572 3433 8569
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 006DEG 16KT 3438 8584

SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
541 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ003-062330-
FRANKLIN-
541 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 536 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RUSSELLVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ROCKWOOD...PLEASANT RIDGE.
  ISBELL.
  SPRUCE PINE...PHIL CAMPBELL.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3448 8786 3457 8771 3457 8770 3441 8755
      3431 8775
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 323DEG 6KT 3449 8777

SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
552 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ008-009-062330-
JACKSON-MARSHALL-
552 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACKSON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES
UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 549 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LANGSTON...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SCOTTSBORO...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LANGSTON.
  COLUMBUS CITY.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3448 8604 3448 8606 3443 8611 3440 8611
      3439 8612 3442 8626 3466 8619 3462 8601
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 001DEG 5KT 3456 8612

SL

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