Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Huntsville, AL

094 
WGUS74 KHUN 120054
FFSHUN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
754 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

ALC095-120109-
/O.EXP.KHUN.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-120712T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARSHALL AL-
754 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MARSHALL COUNTY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3429 8646 3431 8658 3452 8656 3453 8655
      3454 8655 3448 8650 3448 8642 3452 8638
      3451 8633 3460 8631 3460 8615 3455 8615
      3451 8610 3446 8608 3447 8607 3440 8612
      3419 8610 3418 8619 3410 8630 3410 8631

$$

70/DD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
322 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS REMAINED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY. WELCOME RAINS HAVE BEEN THE RESULT OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FIRST OF
TWO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA AT 19Z...WITH THE SECOND AREA SHIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL ALABAMA/EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME.

FOR THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES AND NEAR
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUES IN THIS TROPICAL
TYPE OF PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM AROUND TWO INCHES TO 2.3
INCHES OVERNIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH THE
EXPECTED NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...COMBINED WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AT 500
MILLIBARS WILL LEAD TO EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. FOR NOW...BASED UPON ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD/FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN CLOSE TO
THREE INCHES IN AN HOUR AND AROUND 4.5 TO 5 INCHES FOR A SIX HOUR
TIME PERIOD INTO THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO BE MOVING
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST LIKELY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING
THE FRIDAY DAY FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR
AGREEMENT INVOLVING SLOWLY PUSHING THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOME RIDGING AT 500 MILLIBARS OFF OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND MOVE DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVELS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM 18Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LESSENING CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE GFS TEMPS INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY/NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS CLOSER TO THE GFS NUMBERS FOR MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED
INCREASED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST DIURNAL
CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME PERIODS. BY
TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PERSISTENT BOUNDARY WILL
SLIGHTLY DROP SOUTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE GFS TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 111 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
ONGOING SHOWERS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL MEANDER BETWEEN ALTERNATE REQUIRED AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NEXT BATCH OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED FOR ALTERNATE MINIMUM CONDITIONS AT BOTH
KHSV AND KMSL OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY NEAR DAYBREAK. BETWEEN ROUNDS
OF ACTIVITY...FOG/DRIZZLE MAY BE AN ISSUE...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE WITH
THIS ISSUANCE FOR NOW.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  84  70  89  71 /  90  80  40  60  30
SHOALS        71  84  71  89  71 /  90  80  40  60  30
VINEMONT      71  82  70  86  71 /  90  80  40  50  30
FAYETTEVILLE  71  81  72  87  71 /  90  80  40  60  30
ALBERTVILLE   70  81  69  87  71 /  90  70  40  50  30
FORT PAYNE    69  83  69  86  70 /  90  70  40  50  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1228 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-120300-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1228 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING FROM REPETITIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
511 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

ALZ005>008-016-112300-
CULLMAN-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MARSHALL-MORGAN-
511 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CULLMAN...LIMESTONE...MADISON...
MARSHALL AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CADDO TO FLINT CITY
TO EVA TO BAILEYTON. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  HULACO.
  RYAN CROSSROADS...JOPPA.
  DECATUR...ARAB.
  VALHERMOSO SPRINGS...EDDY.
  MOORESVILLE...MORGAN CITY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3426 8671 3441 8697 3451 8711 3490 8709
      3480 8684 3468 8658 3451 8630 3423 8643
      3425 8645 3425 8651 3416 8658
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 194DEG 12KT 3459 8714 3450 8694
          3436 8668 3423 8655

70/DD