Special Weather Statement, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AND THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA ON FRIDAY WITH THE ADVECTION OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
POPPED UP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF KERN COUNTY AND OVER
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF TULARE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINING AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT ARE PRONE TO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FEEDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE THETA-E RIDGE
AND CONVERGES WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD STABILIZE A BIT BY SUNSET ONCE DAYTIME HEATING HAS ENDED.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR...THE AIR IS HEATING UP
LIKE GANGBUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FRESNO
WILL SCORE ANOTHER DAY ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK TO BRING THE TOTAL
NUMBER OF 100-DEGREE DAYS THIS MONTH TO 23. IF NO OTHER DAY THIS
MONTH REACHES 100 DEGREES IN FRESNO...IT WILL TIE FOR 3RD PLACE
AND RIVAL THE YEAR 1910 FOR THE MOST NUMBER OF DAYS IN AUGUST
WITH MAX TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 100. IF THE HIGH TEMP REACHES THE
CENTURY MARK IN FRESNO FRIDAY...AND IT IS A POSSIBILITY...THEN
IT WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN AUGUST OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WHICH OCCURRED IN 1891 AND
1967 RESPECTIVELY.

IN THE BROADER SCALE OF THINGS...IT IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT CAN BE
BLAMED FOR THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS LATELY. THIS RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN ITS GRIP ON THE PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD US FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
WITH ITS APPROACH...THE TROUGH WILL PULL UP ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT TO REJUVENATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WEST OF I-5. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ANY ONE OF THEM COULD INITIALLY SPARK NEW FIRES OR BRING HEAVY
RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER...DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS DRIER AIR WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY. IF SO...A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD STILL POP UP ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST OR IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RESIDENTS OF
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL CERTAINLY NOTICE A MORE COMFORTABLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. THE AMOUNT OF COOLING THAT OCCURS IN THE
SJ VLY WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE MARINE LAYER GETS ALONG THE
CENTRAL CA COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WHATEVER THE
CASE...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE OUR COOLEST
PERIODS IN THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE FOUR CORNERS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO CA. AFTERWARD...THE FOUR CORNERS
RIDGE WILL BASICALLY DOMINATE THE PATTERN ACROSS CA BUT NOT
WITHOUT COMPLICATIONS. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE MOISTURE FROM ILEANA BETWEEN LABOR
DAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER THAN THE ECM
AND BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ILEANA INTO THE CWA AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS PARTICULAR MODEL
DOES NOT EXEMPT THE SJ VLY FROM MEASURABLE RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND... THE ECM SOLN IS DRY AND
KEEPS MOISTURE FROM ILEANA WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF CA.
WFO CONSENSUS IS IN FAVOR OF THE ECM SOLN AT THIS TIME SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT WHERE MONSOONAL MOISTURE MIGHT NOT BE
TOO FAR EAST FROM LABOR DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN IN THIS REGION...
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT.
OF COURSE...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE ECM COMES INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE ILEANA TRACKS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HER COULD STILL FIND ITS WAY
INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHATEVER THE CASE...
IT BEARS WATCHING. HENCE THE REASON FOR OUR LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MOST OF OUR 4 TO 7 DAY PERIODS. MORE CONFIDENTLY...HOWEVER...WE
CAN SAY THAT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY TO MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. IF DRY WEATHER PREVAILS...FRESNO WILL GET PLENTY
MORE OPPORTUNITIES TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK NEXT WEEK. COUNTING
TODAY...THE ANNUAL TALLY IS 41 DAYS. THE RECORD IS 63 WHICH LAST
OCCURRED IN 1984.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS
UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AFTER 19Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY AUGUST 30 2012... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
401 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

CAZ095>099-311115-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
401 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1158 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

CAZ095>099-310600-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
1158 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVE INTO THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BRING A THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
128 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

CAZ099-302145-
KERN CA-
128 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

UNTIL 245 PM PDT

AT 122 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES EAST OF EDWARDS AFB...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   BORON...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3482 11763 3482 11782 3508 11772 3506 11763
      3486 11762
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 205DEG 4KT 3489 11768

MOLINA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
251 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

CAZ099-302230-
KERN CA-
251 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

UNTIL 330 PM PDT

AT 242 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EDWARDS AFB..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   EDWARDS AFB...BORON AND CALIFORNIA CITY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3482 11768 3491 11810 3524 11793 3513 11762
      3505 11762
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 221DEG 38KT 3499 11782

MOLINA

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