Frost Advisory 6, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1117 AM PST MON DEC 17 2012

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR TODAY...AS SOME SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SUNNIER SKIES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN ANEMIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO ALREADDY
EXCEED THE MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON
REMAINS IN EFFECT AS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD MEET CRITERIA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY WILL SEE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR IN HZ/BR THROUGH
20Z MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN LIGHT
RAIN WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 20Z MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY IN RAIN/SNOW.

KERN COUNTY DESERTS...VFR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THEN AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 310 AM PST MON DEC 17 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NEAR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE LOOPS...A
DISTURBANCE NEAR 43N/147W IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SHORT-WAVE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO TRIGGER SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.

THIS IS A COLD SYSTEM...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3500 FEET
IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FORECASTED QPF
FOR YOSEMITE VALLEY IS 0.79 INCH...AND MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW INCHES FALLING ON THE YOSEMITE
VALLEY FLOOR TONIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE COLD AIRMASS ALSO WILL BRING THE THREAT OF FROST TO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS AS A
SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN THE STATE BETWEEN STORMS. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDEST RURAL AREAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE 28-32-DEGREE RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES THOSE MORNINGS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER ANY FOG
DEVELOPS. THE COLDEST OUTLIER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE FOR FRESNO HAS A
LOW OF 29 WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND 27 THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST LOWS IN THE OUTLYING AREAS COULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S. WILL
ADD A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE FREEZE TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ABOUT THIS WEEK/S UNSETTLED WEATHER.

THE NEXT STORM IS FORECAST TO REACH THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS STORM...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE GFS STILL HAS A TROUGH
OVER CALIFORNIA NEXT MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-17       70:1958     40:1963     52:1962     25:1967
KFAT 12-18       71:1979     41:1963     52:2010     26:1965
KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965

KBFL 12-17       75:1977     41:1985     54:1977     23:1901
KBFL 12-18       75:1979     35:1908     53:1938     23:1908
KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET
FOR THE CAZ096.

&&

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

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