Special Weather Statement, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT 20Z...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ABOUT
LUFKIN TO BRENHAM TO COTULLA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM ABOUT TXK TO ACT TO JCT. SHRA/TSRA ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
SHRA ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING THE REGION AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
A POOL OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE REGION. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE MID 80S AND LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. FEEL THE
BEST THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER/RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND WILL GO LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF I-10.
THE WET BULB ZERO IS LOW SO FEEL PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
BUT FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED V SO CAN'T RULE OUT GUSTY
WINDS EITHER. EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST AND THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. ELECTION DAY LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS. THERE IS NO
METEOROLOGICAL EXCUSE FOR NOT VOTING. THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD
LOOKS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN TEMPS.

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SAT/SUN
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE BACK TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
SAT/SUN AND SHRAS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS SE TX ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF (GFS IS FASTER). THE LONG RANGE CANADIAN SUPPORTS THE GFS SO
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER SOLN. 43

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE INTERRUPTED
BY A PASSING THUNDERSTORM AND EVENTUALLY BY AN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTIONS WILL BE OUT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. RETURN FLOW BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A LATE WEEK STRONG WESTERN U.S UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP...AND WESTERN PLAINS SURFACE TROUGHING
DEEPENS...THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LONG
DURATION MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. THIS WILL PICK UP SEA
HEIGHTS AND MAY HAVE WEEKEND COASTAL WATER LEVELS RUNNING UP TO A
FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF THE WIND
DIRECTION IS MORE EAST THAN SOUTH. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      50  75  51  81  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              54  74  52  80  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  73  60  77  64 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
915 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-060600-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
915 AM CST MON NOV 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF A BRENHAM TO CONROE TO
CLEVELAND LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

A COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CONROE                  30.32N 95.47W
11/03/2012                   MONTGOMERY         TX   NEWSPAPER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED ACROSS MULTIPLE LOCATIONS
            AROUND THE CONROE AREA AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST. ASOS AT
            KCXO REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 53 KNOTS AT 1548 PM CDT.

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POINT BLANK             30.75N 95.22W
11/03/2012                   SAN JACINTO        TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE DOWNED WITH ONE TREE COLLAPSING ONTO A POWER
            LINE THAT CAUSED A FIRE.

0930 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LA MARQUE               29.37N 94.99W
11/04/2012                   GALVESTON          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WINDOW DAMAGE TO A COMMMERICAL BUILDING WITH MINOR DAMAGE
            TO RESIDENTIAL HOMES. THERE WAS MINOR DAMAGE TO THE
            CORNER OF A RESIDENCE WHEN A VEHICLE WAS TURNED IN PLACE
            AND STRUCK THE HOME.

&&

BLOOD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012

TXZ178-200-052115-
LIBERTY TX-SAN JANCINTO TX-
245 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIBERTY AND SAN JACINTO
COUNTIES...

AT 235 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF CLEVELAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...PLUM GROVE...AND NORTH CLEVELAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST
MONDAY EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3013 9502 3022 9512 3034 9516 3032 9523
      3033 9523 3035 9520 3038 9524 3039 9528
      3049 9522 3036 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 301DEG 19KT 3039 9521

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012

TXZ213-052145-
HARRIS TX-
319 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARRIS COUNTY...

AT 314 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPRING...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRING...CLOVERLEAF...HUMBLE...ALDINE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...
CROSBY...AND SHELDON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST
MONDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2973 9522 2999 9550 3009 9540 3008 9535
      3005 9531 3003 9531 3003 9526 3005 9523
      2993 9502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 310DEG 22KT 3003 9539

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012

TXZ200-214-052200-
CHAMBERS TX-LIBERTY TX-
339 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 335 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DAYTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIBERTY...DAYTON...ANAHUAC...OLD RIVER-
WINFREE...AMES... KENEFICK...AND DAYTON LAKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST
MONDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2963 9467 2967 9470 2972 9469 2974 9470
      2976 9469 2974 9470 2976 9470 2976 9473
      2979 9473 2978 9477 3008 9497 3016 9481
      2984 9440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 317DEG 36KT 3009 9486

40

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