Small Craft Advisory 52, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1038 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC GRIDS FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS APPEARING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL KEEP CURRENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IS...AS MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS STRONG WINDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGIN TO MIX DOWN BUT WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TODAY. 38

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 3 AM AND ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISSUING A
GALE WARNING IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS...A
LITTLE LESS NEARSHORE WHERE COOLER WATER LOWERS ONSHORE WINDS
TODAY WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ALREADY BEING REPORTED AND THESE
SHOULD BUILD A BIT MORE BEFORE THE WINDS RELAX JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AOA GALE. STILL SOME THREAT FOR PATCHY SEA
FOG TONIGHT BUT WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LIMITED DURATION OVER
THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND LARGER T/TD SPREADS THE FOG WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE DENSE.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS IMPROVED EARLY WITH GUSTY WINDS ON THE INCREASE. LLWS WILL
DIMINISH AS MIXING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. LLJ FROM PSX-CLL WILL
SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST BUT STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LLJ AXIS ENTRANCE REGION RIGHT OVER THE MAJOR HUBS OF IAH/HOU OF
40-50KTS AT 850MB.

PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST MAY LOWER VISBY TO MVFR CATEGORIES JUST
AFTER SUNSET FOR A FEW HOURS.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE ON TIMING FOR FROPA. EXPECTING THE
SHOWERS TO GET MORE ORGANIZED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES CLL AND NEARS
DWH-CXO AREA.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  47  58  29  59 /  30  30  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  54  60  33  60 /  30  40  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  59  63  42  58 /  20  50  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012

TXZ163-164-177>179-199-200-213-201300-
HARRIS-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-
630 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE...TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG IN GUST...ONSHORE WINDS AHEAD
OF AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT BE BLUSTERY ENOUGH TO BLOW LIGHT
WEIGHT ITEMS...SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE OR WEAK TREE LIMBS...AROUND
OR DOWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE..STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH...
GUSTING TO 35 MPH...CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DUE TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH WINDS AND LOWERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO UNDER 30 PERCENT...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TXZ176-195>198-210>212-214-226-227-235>238-201300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-JACKSON-MADISON-MATAGORDA-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
630 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE...TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG IN GUST...ONSHORE WINDS AHEAD
OF AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTERNOON WINDS MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW LIGHT
WEIGHT ITEMS...SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE OR WEAK TREE LIMBS...AROUND
OR DOWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
SUSTAINED THURSDAY NORTHERLIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 30
MPH...GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES THURSDAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 MPH. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DUE TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH WINDS AND LOWERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO UNDER 30 PERCENT...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-201300-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
630 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO OCCANSIONALLY STRONG NEARSHORE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE HAS CAUTION FLAGS UP TODAY...STRONGER NEAR 20 KNOT
OFFSHORE WINDS HAS HOISTED ADVISORY FLAGS. VERY MOIST AIR
OVERRUNNING COOLER SHELF WATERS HAS A CHANCE OF LOCAL BAY AND
NEARSHORE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG LOCAL MARITIME WINDS IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANTLY HEIGHTENED
SEAS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS...GUSTING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GALE FORCE...RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT.