Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES HAVE HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FIRING IN NW HARRIS AND GRIMES
COUNTY. SPC SVR TSTM WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR SOME OF OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND INVERTED VEE PROFILES EXPECT
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT BUT HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.
TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SW EXITING HARRIS COUNTY SOON. STORMS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID EVENING AFTER SUNSET.

RECORD TYING OR BREAKING HEAT AT MANY LOCATIONS. KGLS HIT 96
AROUND NOON TODAY BREAKING THE OLD RECORD BEFORE THE ONSHORE
WINDS/SEA BREEZE MODERATED TEMPERATURES. HOUSTON BUSH (KIAH) AT
104F AT 3PM TIES RECORD AND HOUSTON HOBBY HAS BROKEN OLD RECORD AS
WELL. RECORD REPORTS WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. HEAT INDICES EXCEED 108 AT MANY LOCATIONS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW MAX TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER AND WILL BE IN THE 100 TO 106 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

IN THE LONGER RANGE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SLUG OF
INCREASE MOISTURE/PWATS FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES. WEAKNESS/INVERTED TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTH TX AT 500MB WILL
CONTRIBUTE SOME LIFT AS WELL THIS WEEKEND. 04

&&

.AVIATION...
LOOKS LIKE THE PCPN DEVELOPING THIS AFTN/EVE WILL BE MOSTLY EAST OF
OUR TAF SITES...SAVE FOR CLL. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP WITH TREND OF VFR
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS/EARLY TOMORROW TIME FRAME. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
TOMORROW COULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFI-
DENCE WITH TIMING SO HAVE LEFT VCTS MENTION OUT ATTM. 41

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT FCST ISSUES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT
WINDS/LOW SEAS DEVELOPING/IN PLACE. TIDES REMAINING AT/AROUND 1-1.5
FEET  ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW/GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78 103  76  98  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  99  76  97  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  94  81  92  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION/MARINE...41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-271130-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
630 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS EQUATE TO
AFTERNOON PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES.
THESE FACTORS WILL ALSO AID IN SUPPORTING MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK EASTERN DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITHIN
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRODUCE LATE AFTERNOON PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
417 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

TXZ226-227-262215-
FORT BEND-WHARTON-
417 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 411 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PECAN GROVE TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ROSENBERG...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...HUNGERFORD...
ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...PECAN GROVE...ORCHARD...KENDLETON...FULSHEAR
AND BEASLEY.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS TO
BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR NON-CONVERTIBLE
AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 2956 9574 2943 9587 2937 9601 2938 9618
      2969 9596 2979 9583 2970 9569
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 031DEG 20KT 2968 9582 2962 9588
          2961 9595