River Flood Warning 16, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
542 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

.AVIATION...
COASTAL-PARALLEL SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN ENCOUNTERING INTERIOR DRY
AIR THROUGH THE MORNING...DRY AIR WINNING OUT AND SHUNTING -RA TO
THE COAST AND OVER GULF. ALTHOUGH WHAT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IN SAN ANTONIO'S AREA MAY AFFECT HUBS LATTER THIS
MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE DRIER AIR BEING TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME.
DUE TO THE SLOW (OR NO) MOVEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT AND
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...THERE WILL BE STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME AIR MASS OVER COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE -RA POINTS SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. THICK VFR CEILINGS UNDER EARLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...WEAKENING
AS THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/

DISCUSSION...
A DISTURBANCE RIDING ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW RAIN CHANCES WELL INLAND AND MUCH BETTER SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE FIRST PART
OF TODAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TOO UNDER A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY AND ON THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS FOR ONLY
THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE THESE POPS
A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS HARD TO TIME DISTURBANCES
BEGIN TO RIDE ACROSS THE AREA AS THEY EJECT OUT OF A DEEPENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA REGION BY THURSDAY. HAVE
RAISED POPS A LITTLE BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST...AND WE'LL PROBABLY END UP CARRYING
HIGHER POPS AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WILL KEEP READINGS ON THE COOL SIDE. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.  42

MARINE...
IN THIS POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...A TIGHT OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF A LARGE CENTRAL U.S HIGH WILL HAVE STRONG TO
MODERATE NORTHERLIES IN PLACE THROUGH MID TO LATE MONDAY. WINDS
SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST UNDER LOWERING SEAS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...COMMENCING A LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH. THIS WILL PUSH A
SWELL INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE WEEK...5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS FORECAST
BY WEEK'S CLOSE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE AROUND
MID-WEEK AS DISTURBANCES MOVE UP WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL (BAJA REGION) LOW. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  38  59  42  62 /  30  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              53  41  59  42  63 /  50  30  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  46  59  49  63 /  70  50  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
357 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-061300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
357 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.