Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

098 
WGUS74 KHGX 041033
FFSHGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
433 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

TXC185-225-313-455-471-041046-
/O.EXP.KHGX.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120204T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRIMES TX-HOUSTON TX-MADISON TX-TRINITY TX-WALKER TX-
433 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
WALKER...NORTHERN TRINITY...MADISON...HOUSTON AND NORTHEASTERN GRIMES
COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE WARNING AREA...SO 
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 430 AM CST. 

STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOW BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE... 
ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE 
REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DEPTH AND SPEED OF FLASH FLOOD WATERS. ACT QUICKLY IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS
TO RISE.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3131 9489 3129 9488 3126 9489 3070 9580
      3102 9612 3107 9605 3110 9598 3110 9577
      3114 9578 3116 9574 3121 9575 3127 9573
      3133 9566 3140 9571 3157 9551 3160 9529

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1121 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING AS AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CROSS
SE TX EARLY SAT MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR A PART OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS IS THE FIRST FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA SINCE SEPTEMBER 7TH 2010. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

UPDATE...
UPDATED DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...
EVENING SUPERCELL THAT MOVED THROUGH BURLESON AND BRAZOS COUNTY
HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT LEAVING A NUMBER OF DAMAGE...FLOODING AND
HAIL REPORTS IN ITS WAKE. NOW NEED TO MONITOR STORMS POISED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE ARE PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED FLOODING
EARLIER THIS EVENING SO AM EVALUATING NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR AT LEAST NORTHWEST COUNTIES. FRONT PROGGED TO CATCH UP TO THIS
LINE OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS MOVING NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AND ISOLATED SEVERE A POSSIBILITY. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION FIRING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTN AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NEWD OVER THE AREA. TSRAS MOVING AT
A FAIRLY STEADY CLIP AND OBS NOT INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A SFC
BOUNDARY IN THE FA. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAINING/FLOODING ISSUES
ATTM. HOWEVER THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM REMAINS THE FCST
OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. SE TX LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE "STARTING POINT" OF
THE BETTER/STRONGER JET DYNAMICS WHEN TIMED WITH FROPA. WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE APLENTY...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
WITH THE PROGS OF A FAST MOVING FRONT SHOULD THEN KEEP A MAJORITY
OF THE STORMS ON THE SIDE OF STRONG (VS. SEVERE) AS WELL AS BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS (VS. TRAINING HEAVY RAINS). AN UPDATED HAZARD-
OUS WX OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN...ACCOUNTING FOR THIS
LINE OF THINKING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS KEEP THE TRENDS
ON THE WET/ACTIVE SIDE. AS PER THE GFS (IN PARTICULAR)...A RATHER
WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS FCSTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. ANY STORMS THAT FORM
SHOULD BE ELEVATED AT THAT TIME. AFTER A SHORT BREAK ON MON THERE
ARE HINTS OF YET ANOTHER S/WV ON TUES AS THE PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW
ALOFT DRAGS THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS. MOST NOTABLY...LONG-RANGE PROGS
NOT REALLY OFFERING UP A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THIS COOL/WET PAT-
TERN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP SWLY UPPER FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE AS WELL AS THE OFFSHORE SFC FLOW. 41

MARINE...
THE SEA FOG HAS NOT BEEN AS PREVALENT TODAY AS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WERE JUST TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE AND SOME PATCHY SEA FOG HAS DRIFTED ONTO GALVESTON
ISLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE FOG TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FOG MAY BEGIN TO LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
BAYS IN THE MID AND LATE MORNING AND OFF THE COAST DURING MIDDAY TO
MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
THEN DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  64  43  56  36 /  70  70  20  50  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  71  49  58  39 /  60  70  30  50  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  71  54  57  44 /  50  70  40  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...MADISON...WALKER...
     WASHINGTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
116 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-041200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
116 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG AND NORTH OF BRENHAM TO CONROE TO
LIVINGSTON LINE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE COMMON AND
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

FOG...SOME DENSE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS...IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL
REACH THE COAST LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. FOG
WITH SOME DENSE AREAS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT...AND ON
SATURDAY MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1014 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

TXZ176-177-196-198-040515-
BRAZOS-GRIMES-MADISON-WALKER-
1014 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 1007 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...NORTH ZULCH...IOLA...
MIDWAY AND MADISONVILLE.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL TREE BRANCHES TO BE BROKEN...AND
UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. AVOID TALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT CAN
ATTRACT LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE OR NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FOR THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3110 9577 3109 9576 3109 9574 3108 9573
      3086 9563 3070 9622 3087 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 248DEG 18KT 3082 9615

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1122 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

TXZ176-177-198-040615-
GRIMES-MADISON-WALKER-
1122 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN GRIMES...MADISON AND
NORTHWEST WALKER COUNTIES...

AT 1117 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CRABBS PRAIRIE...BEDIAS
AND MADISONVILLE.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL TREE BRANCHES TO BE BROKEN...AND
UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. AVOID TALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT CAN
ATTRACT LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE OR NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
WATCH OUT FOR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3100 9566 3099 9568 3095 9565 3072 9559
      3074 9601 3092 9604 3103 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0520Z 263DEG 14KT 3084 9592

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1153 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N KURTEN              30.84N 96.26W
02/03/2012                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER ON FM 974.

&&

DREILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             7 E CALDWELL            30.53N 96.59W
02/03/2012  M0.25 INCH       BURLESON           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA SIZED HAIL ON HIGHWAY 21 AT CR 240...7 MILES EAST OF
            CALDWELL.

0648 PM     TORNADO          SNOOK                   30.49N 96.47W
02/03/2012                   BURLESON           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN SNOOK...POWER LINES
            DOWN. FEDEX FACILITY SEVERELY DAMAGED.

0720 PM     HAIL             COLLEGE STATION         30.60N 96.31W
02/03/2012  M1.00 INCH       BRAZOS             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN COLLEGE STATION AT MARION PUGH AND
            GEORGE BUSH DRIVE...OTHER PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTS AT
            BIZZELL STREET AND LINCOLN AVENUE.

0735 PM     HAIL             COLLEGE STATION         30.60N 96.31W
02/03/2012  M1.00 INCH       BRAZOS             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ONE INCH HAIL CAUSED A BROKEN WINDOW ON HOME AT MARION
            PUGH AND GEORGE BUSH DRIVE.

0735 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COLLEGE STATION         30.60N 96.31W
02/03/2012                   BRAZOS             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            THE BASEMENT OF THE COMMONS DORMITORY ON A AND M CAMPUS
            IS FLOODED.

0738 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLLEGE STATION         30.60N 96.31W
02/03/2012                   BRAZOS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER POLES DOWN ON ASHFORD ROAD AND FINFEATHER ROAD.

0738 PM     HAIL             COLLEGE STATION         30.60N 96.31W
02/03/2012  M2.00 INCH       BRAZOS             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            2.25 INCH HAIL JUST NORTH OF THE A AND M CAMPUS.

0750 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COLLEGE STATION         30.60N 96.31W
02/03/2012                   BRAZOS             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            BIZZELL STREET ON THE A AND M CAMPUS IS UNDER 2 TO 3 FEET
            OF RAIN WATER.

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WSW COLLEGE STATION   30.58N 96.39W
02/03/2012                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM 60 AT JONES ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ESE BRYAN             30.65N 96.32W
02/03/2012                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM 158 AT FM 1179 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

1130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N KURTEN              30.84N 96.26W
02/03/2012                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER ON FM 974.

&&

DREILLY