Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LLJ CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK WAA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT
14-15Z BEFORE WE GET A BREAK IN THE ACTION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. THUNDESTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NEW
YORK...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE BY MID AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE AS
WELL AND ENHANCED WORDING HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR
NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW LEVEL STABILITY IN MAINE AS THE
WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT APPROACH THE COAST. PWATS
REMAIN HIGH...SO TRAINING STORMS WOULD PRESENT A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT GIVEN INCREASED
FORCING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
MUCH OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP OFF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
IN NORTHERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM THE 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD FRIDAY ACROSS
THE REGION.

CLOSED LOW STILL SET TO DAMPEN THE WEEKEND WEATHER...HOWEVER SOME
TIMING DIFFS SHOWING UP AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ZERO IN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

LONG TERM...VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS
AND BE THE CAUSE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...SCA LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...MLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
528 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

MEZ007-012-018-019-023-NHZ001>010-013-014-300930-
NORTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN OXFORD-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-
COASTAL YORK-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
528 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY FLOODING RAINFALL ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN THEIR REPORTS.

MEZ008-009-013-014-020>022-024>028-300930-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
SOUTHERN SOMERSET-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
528 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY FLOODING RAINFALL ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN THEIR REPORTS.

ANZ150>154-300930-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
528 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN THEIR REPORTS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
412 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

MEZ012-018>020-023-024-NHZ006-290900-
ANDROSCOGGIN-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-COASTAL YORK-INTERIOR
CUMBERLAND-INTERIOR YORK-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
412 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY...OXFORD
COUNTY...CARROLL COUNTY...YORK COUNTY AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY THROUGH
500 AM EDT...

AT 412 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEZAR FALLS...OR
ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FRYEBURG...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND WEST NEWFIELD...
PORTER...PARSONSFIELD...KEZAR FALLS...BROWNFIELD...EFFINGHAM...
NEWFIELD...LIMERICK...HIRAM AND DENMARK THROUGH 500 AM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 5
MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4367 7107 4398 7099 4394 7009 4371 7015
      4372 7017 4370 7022 4369 7021 4370 7020
      4370 7017 4354 7021 4353 7025 4355 7029
      4352 7031

MLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
435 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

MEZ012-NHZ002>004-290915-
NORTHERN CARROLL-NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
435 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OXFORD COUNTY...COOS COUNTY...
CARROLL COUNTY AND GRAFTON COUNTY THROUGH 515 AM EDT...

AT 436 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES EAST OF WHITEFIELD...OR ABOUT 8
MILES SOUTH OF LANCASTER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND TWIN MOUNTAIN...
WHITEFIELD...LANCASTER...JEFFERSON...CARROLL...MOOSE BROOK STATE
PARK...RANDOLPH...PINKHAM NOTCH...MOUNT WASHINGTON AND SHELBURNE
THROUGH 515 AM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 5
MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4439 7081 4410 7097 4429 7164 4450 7158

MLE

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