Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Gray, ME

028 
WGUS71 KGYX 160112
FFSGYX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
912 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

MEC025-160215-
/O.CON.KGYX.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120716T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOMERSET ME-
912 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY...

THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA... HOWEVER 
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PERSISTENT FLOODING 
PROBLEMS AND RAPID WATER RISES ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL 
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOOSEHEAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR
CREEKS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING
TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4564 6969 4558 6970 4554 6977 4535 6970
      4532 6971 4522 7012 4544 7023 4567 6974
      4566 6970

$$

KIMBLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
556 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
OXFORD...FRANKLIN...AND SOMERSET COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NH. WE ARE GENERALLY
SEEING AN AVERAGE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER THE MORE ROBUST CELLS. STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB
SEVERE SO FAR. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL
AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS UPDATE.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE ON TRACK.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER VERMONT
AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...ALONG WITH A FEW CELLS OVER SOMERSET
AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUPPORT FOR SOME
DECENT CONVECTION THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND ISOLATED AT BEST. LARGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS MAY BE FROM VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF STORMS TONIGHT...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. WITH DEW POINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH.

WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT FOG TO BE A
PROBLEM TONIGHT. THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT INTERIOR
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE THE EARLIEST TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND IT
WILL LIKELY LAST LONGEST IN THE SAME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...PATCHY
FOG WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STORMS SHOULD BE DONE ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MID-COAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY JUST
BE FINISHING UP THERE BY TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF SUN.
HOWEVER...WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN
AREAS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS OROGRAPHIC
LIFTS TRIGGERS A FEW ISOLATED CELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON WITH
RELATIVELY MEAGER POPS EXPECTED WHICH WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
NRN AREAS. THE TRIGGER FOR THIS PCPN WILL BE DEPARTING DURG THE
DAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE EXITS THRU THE GULF OF MAINE.

THE HEAT IS ON FOR TUESDAY AS LOW PRES TRACKS N OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. H8 TEMPS REACH AS HIGH AS +20C AT H8 DURG THE AFTN. THIS
SHOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER SRN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO PRIME THE ATMOS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF STG TO SVR TSTMS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOST LKLY NOT REACH THE CSTLN UNTIL
MRNG...SO WILL KEEP POPS GOING THRU THE NGT ALONG THE COAST.

THEREAFTER...A COOLER...UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CROSS NRN
NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE RGN DURG THE
THU/FRI TIMEFRAME. WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT TSTMS AND HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING SUNNY/DRY WX TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT TO CAUSE
VSBY AND CIGS PROBLEMS AT ALL TAF SITES. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
TOMORROW MORNING BY 14-15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

LONG TERM...LCLY MVFR CONDS IN SCT TSTMS MON AND PATCHY FOG MON
NGT. A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION IS PSBL LTR TUE AND TUE
NGT WILL BRING LCL IFR CONDS TO THE ROUTES. CONDS BEGIN TO IMPROVE
WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED
THEREAFTER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...SCAS MAY BE PSBL TUE OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STG
COLD FRONT...AND ON WEDNESDAY IN NW FLOW AND CAA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BLO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...HANES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
547 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-162200-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
547 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ150>154-162200-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
547 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
202 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

MEZ009-151845-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-
202 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

AT 201 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONG POND...OR
ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND LONG POND...
ROCKWOOD...MOOSEHEAD AND BRASSUA THROUGH 245 PM EDT.

HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL PONDING IN STREETS AND
LOW-LYING AREAS FROM A QUICK ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. SMALL
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 5
MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4574 6978 4571 6979 4568 6976 4568 6974
      4562 6969 4561 6970 4558 6970 4553 6977
      4546 7017 4560 7027 4581 6984

KIMBLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
246 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

MEZ009-151930-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-
246 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM
EDT...

AT 245 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOOSEHEAD...OR
ABOUT 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKMAN ON HIGHWAY 201...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN
AND AROUND MOOSEHEAD THROUGH 330 PM EDT.

HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL PONDING IN STREETS AND
LOW-LYING AREAS. A QUICK ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...
ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 4566 6974 4560 6970 4558 6970 4554 6977
      4541 6973 4532 7004 4549 7016

KIMBLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
648 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

MEZ009-152330-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-
648 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET COUNTY THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

AT 647 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES WEST OF THE FORKS...OR ABOUT 19
MILES NORTHEAST OF EUSTIS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND THE FORKS AND LAKE MOXIE
THROUGH 730 PM EDT.

HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL PONDING IN STREETS AND
LOW-LYING AREAS. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 4549 6976 4533 6970 4528 6970 4523 7022
      4540 7028 4552 6976

KIMBLE