Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
629 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE LINGERING CLOUDS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE 620 PM: A SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PARTS OF SWRN ME FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
(ANDROSCROGGIN,CUMBERLAND,OXFORD,YORK) AND SRN/CNTRL NH FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES
(BELKNAP,MERRIMACK,STRAFFORD,SULLIVAN,CARROLL,GRAFTON). LINES OF
TSTMS WITH HISTORIES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISC;
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
60'S. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE UPSTREAM ACROSS QUEBEC
PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND
SHORT WAVE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
WITH SCATTERED STORMS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY
HAIL. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENS AFTER DARK BEFORE ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
SUPPORT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV TEMPS WERE USED TO INITIALIZE MIN
TEMPS THEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND UPPER TROUGH/ COOL AIR ALOFT THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WE SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. A COMFORTABLE SLEEPING NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50'S AND
LOWER 60'S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE RIPPLES IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFT IT EAST. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER BESIDES INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND CROSS
BARRIER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. ON SATURDAY
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WITH MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH WILL BLEED OVER FROM THE REST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES. ALOFT THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
TROUGHING...AND PERIODIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP CLOUDS VARIABLE
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM TIME TO TIME DESPITE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
INITIALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PEAKING IN THE 80S AND 90S.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SCT MVFR THROUGH EVENING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THEN SCT MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LCL IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR EXPECTED THU WITH ISOLD MVFR IN -SHRA.
SCT MVFR THU NIGHT IN VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY DROPPING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN TSRA AND
FOG THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OR 25 KTS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1246 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-051700-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
1246 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS...AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE 1224 AM HIGH TIDE...COMBINED WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
WIND...SHOULD BE JUST UNDER 12 FT MLLW AT PORTLAND. FLOOD STAGE
AT PORTLAND IS 12 FT MLLW. SOME MINOR SPLASH OVER IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST. THE HIGH TIDE MAY ALSO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG AND
NEAR THE WHARFS IN PORTLAND AND IN THE BACK BAY AREA OF HAMPTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ150>154-051700-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
1246 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCHWIBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
655 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

MEZ012-018>021-024-025-050000-
ANDROSCOGGIN-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-INTERIOR
YORK-KENNEBEC-SAGADAHOC-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
655 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY...KENNEBEC
COUNTY...SAGADAHOC COUNTY...OXFORD COUNTY...YORK COUNTY AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTY THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 656 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST
OF SUMNER TO 2 MILES NORTH OF HIRAM...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
11 MILES SOUTH OF RUMFORD TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FRYEBURG...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN
AND AROUND WEST BRIDGTON...WEST PARIS...WATERFORD...SWEDEN...
SUMNER...STONEHAM...MILTON...LOVELL...LOCKE MILLS AND HIRAM THROUGH
800 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4353 7058 4399 7100 4402 7100 4450 7064
      4423 6976

MLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
715 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

MEZ012-018>020-023-024-050000-
ANDROSCOGGIN-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-COASTAL YORK-INTERIOR
CUMBERLAND-INTERIOR YORK-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
715 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY...OXFORD
COUNTY...YORK COUNTY AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 715 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTH WINDHAM...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS IN AND AROUND STEEP FALLS...SEBAGO LAKE STATE PARK...
STANDISH...RAYMOND...NORTH WINDHAM...NAPLES...CASCO...GRAY...SOUTH
WINDHAM AND POWNAL...AND PORTLAND THROUGH 800 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 5
MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4399 7091 4413 7057 4371 6988 4373 6995
      4370 7006 4373 7007 4371 7010 4365 7003
      4367 7005 4366 7011 4369 7013 4365 7017
      4361 7010 4360 7013 4364 7017 4353 7023
      4355 7029 4352 7031 4352 7037

MLE

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