Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1038 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALLOW A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SUNDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER DEVELOP EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN BECOME THE PRIMARY LOW WITH TIME
AND STALL OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS IT
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
2230...HAVE ALLOWED WIND ADV TO EXPIRE AS CORE OF LL JET HAS
SHIFTED TO THE NE...KMWN ONLY 36G40KT ATTM.

ALSO HAVE DROPPED THE FFA FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS IN THAT AREA. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE ON THAT THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW STALLS IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS
VERTICALLY WITH TIME AS THE GT LAKES LOW DROPS SEWD AND BEGINS TO
MERGE. BANDS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME WRAPAROUND MSTR WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY OVER MAINE BUT AT TIMES WORK INTO NH. WINDS WILL BECOME
NNELY AND TEMPS TO REMAIN COOL. FOR POPS USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS. THE FLOOD WATCH AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL.  OVERALL PREFERRED POPS FROM GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP LAYER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS CLOUDY SKIES...AND ON AND OFF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. THEREAFTER...SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED...BUT WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPPING IN...WE CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG THRU SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR TO LOWER END VFR BKN SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE NEARBY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING OVER THE OUTER WATERS
AND SCA IN THE BAYS THRU SUNDAY. STRONG ESELY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE IOS C-MAN ATTM AND THIS AREA OF STRONG
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL THE
OUTER WATERS BY THIS EVENING. A STG LO LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WATERS WITH POSSIBLY A 3-6 HR WINDOW OF STG GALES. SEAS
WILL CONT TO BUILD AND SWAN MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE SEAS FCST WELL
REACHING 12 FT. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT SO WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NELY FLOW SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT BANDS OF STG WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM...NORTHEAST GALES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE NEARBY. EVENTUALLY...THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE STARTING LATER
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT SET UP ALONG THE ME/NH
BORDER HAS PRODUCED TWO TO FOUR INCHES OR RAIN...AND ALTHOUGH THE BAND
IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST...ANOTHER INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST...EXPECT TWO TO FIVE INCHES
ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL ME BY LATE SUNDAY...AS THE BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN SHIFTS EAST.

A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SACO RIVER AT CONWAY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
CAMPGROUNDS ALONG CREEKS AND RIVERS... PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH
CONWAY AREA... WILL NEED TO TAKE NOTICE AND WE HAVE CONTACTED THE
LOCAL FIRE CHIEF FOR THAT REGION. LAST YEARS TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED THE GEOMORPHOLOGY OVER THESE RIVERBEDS...WITH PILES OF
COBBLESTONE IN THE RIVERBEDS. OTHER STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO
VULNERABLE TO FLOODING DEPENDING ON RAINFALL TOTALS. POOR DRAINAGE
URBAN FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES HAVE PEAKED ALONG THE COAST...WITH PORTLAND RECORDING A HIGH
AROUND 12.3 FT. THE TIDAL FLOOD STAGE IN PORTLAND IS 12 FEET. WILL
CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS HIGH TIDES
AS WELL. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE ESPECIALLY THE HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT MAY POSE MORE PROBLEMS SINCE THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS
EVEN HIGHER THAN ITS PREDECESSORS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ023>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ014.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

NHZ001>003-005-007-031015-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-
SULLIVAN-
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-NHZ004-006-008>010-013-031015-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN CARROLL-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-
INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ023>028-NHZ014-031015-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ151-153-031015-
PENOBSCOT BAY-CASCO BAY-
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY AND PENOBSCOT BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTHEAST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ150-152-154-031015-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ENFIELD                 43.64N  72.14W
06/02/2012                   GRAFTON            NH   NEWSPAPER

            TREE DOWN

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CANAAN                  43.65N  72.01W
06/02/2012                   GRAFTON            NH   NEWSPAPER

            TREE DOWN ON CAR

0520 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LYME                    43.81N  72.16W
06/02/2012                   GRAFTON            NH   NEWSPAPER

            POWER LINES DOWN

0600 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BETHLEHEM               44.28N  71.69W
06/02/2012                   GRAFTON            NH   STATE POLICE

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1200029 GYX1200030 GYX1200031 GYX1200032

MJC