Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
805 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER TO OUR NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN
PLACE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
0000 UTC UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
DEVELOPING PREFRONTAL LINE. SMALL SCALE AND RELATIVELY WEAK QLCS
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SHEAR LEVELS ARE RATHER
HIGH AND BULK SHEAR REMAINS OVER 60 KTS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY...ABOUT 250 J/KG SBCAPE...AND LOW MLVL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.

2100 UTC UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST. SKY COVER
WILL BE TWEAKED TO ACCOUNT FOR STCU DISSIPATING AND REDEVELOPING
WHILE GENERALLY SHIFTING EAST. POPS WILL BE LEFT AS IS WITH LOW END
CHANCES ACROSS THE FARTHER NW ZONES. RADAR RETURNS AND THE LATEST
HRRR SUPPORT A LOW MENTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...ESP ACROSS THE
ERN MOST NC COUNTIES.

THIS AFTERNOON...STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER UPSTATE
TERRAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT FROM THE EDGES INWARD. SCATTERED
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN THE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER CLEARING OCCURS.
SURFACE FRONT STILL ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY NOW PRODUCING SOME
LIGHT PRECIP WITH A FEW SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER NE TN. THIS
IS VERY SIMILAR TO DEPICTION ON 15Z HRRR RUN. THE NE TN ACTIVITY
AFFECTS MAINLY THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THAT DEPICTION WHILE
THE LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM ACTIVITY DOES NOT MAKE IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SUPPORTS EARLIER DECISION TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
NRN CWA NEAR THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. IN THE FAR EASTERN
CWA WHERE SKIES CLEARED EARLIER AND THERE HAS BEEN MORE TIME TO
DESTABILIZE...PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW 500 J OR SO OF CAPE WHICH
WARRANTED A CHC MENTION THERE. DEPENDING ON HOW SOON THE STRATUS
CLEAR OUT IN THE WEST AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...SUBSEQUENT
REVISIONS MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA.

FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY MID EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AS WINDS WILL
KEEP THE AREA FROM EXPERIENCING PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
LIKELY KEEPING FOG AT BAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AS WELL.

CLEAR SKIES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...GENERALLY
IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND REACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LARGE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. HENCE...EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED SAT THROUGH SUN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION.

MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER CHILLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR BOTH FRI NIGHT
AND SAT NIGHT WITH GENERALLY MID 30S FOR LOWS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
WIND/CLOUDS FRI NIGHT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST...BUT CONDITIONS
SAT NIGHT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD FROST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO PER A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE QUIET
WITH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUILD AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AND
IT THEN HOLDS SWAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THU PER HPC/GFS GUIDANCE...BUT THE 00Z ECM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL.
DONT SEE A SIGFNT TSTM THREAT AS THIS AREA HAS REMAINED RATHER
STABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT -SHRA SHOULD MOVE IN AROUND 00Z AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z. THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A
TEMPO ALONG WITH AN MVFR CIG AND VRB LOW END GUSTS. AFTER THE LINE
PUSHES EAST...DONT ANTICIPATE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONE THING THAT WILL BE
WATCHED WILL BE POSSIBLE FG DEVELOPMENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF SOIL SATURATION EXPERIENCED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SW WIND GUST AROUND 20 KTS ARE PROBABLE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE MTNS AND IT IS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING ATTM. IR IMAGERY REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE AND DONT
FORESEE ANY CIG ISSUES AT KAVL NOR KHKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WITH
LITTLE TO RAINFALL ACROSS THE TAF SITES...THE EARLY MORNING FG
THREAT REMAINS LOW...WITH KHKY HAVING A BETTER CHANCE. YET THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. EXPECT VFR AT ALL
OTHER TAF SITE OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED VFR CONDS THROUGH THE DAY
FRI. DEVELOPING WIND GUSTS AROUND 20K IS PROBABLE OUTSIDE THE
MTNS.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT OR MORE AT TIMES OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MTNS AND 70S FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY WILL COMBINE WITH DRIER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION TO PUSH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FRI AFTN. IN ADDITION...BREEZY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT PASSING THIS
AFTN/EVENING...FUELS COULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO CREATE HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER IN SOME AREAS FRI AFTN. RAIN CHANCES ARE BEST OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AND ERN PIEDMONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGH THU.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...SBK
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
524 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-192130-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
524 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
758 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

SCZ007-013-190030-
SPARTANBURG-UNION-
758 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND
UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 754 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PACOLET TO CROSS ANCHOR...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  JONESVILLE...
  BUFFALO...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3465 8197 3492 8176 3490 8165 3487 8163
      3489 8158 3487 8154 3488 8153 3487 8153
      3487 8151 3484 8146 3482 8148 3480 8147
      3452 8156

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
817 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

NCZ037-057-190045-
DAVIE-ROWAN-
817 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DAVIE AND NORTHWESTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

AT 815 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEVELAND...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF STATESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN DAVIE AND NORTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

CLEVELAND AND COOLEEMEE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3584 8039 3584 8041 3582 8047 3579 8047
      3577 8045 3574 8045 3572 8041 3560 8075
      3569 8077 3586 8070 3600 8070 3597 8040
      3589 8039 3588 8041 3587 8039

NED

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