Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
506 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER TO OUR NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN
PLACE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2100 UTC UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST. SKY COVER
WILL BE TWEAKED TO ACCOUNT FOR STCU DISSIPATING AND REDEVELOPING
WHILE GENERALLY SHIFTING EAST. POPS WILL BE LEFT AS IS WITH LOW END
CHANCES ACROSS THE FARTHER NW ZONES. RADAR RETURNS AND THE LATEST
HRRR SUPPORT A LOW MENTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...ESP ACROSS THE
ERN MOST NC COUNTIES.

THIS AFTERNOON...STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER UPSTATE
TERRAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT FROM THE EDGES INWARD. SCATTERED
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN THE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER CLEARING OCCURS.
SURFACE FRONT STILL ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY NOW PRODUCING SOME
LIGHT PRECIP WITH A FEW SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER NE TN. THIS
IS VERY SIMILAR TO DEPICTION ON 15Z HRRR RUN. THE NE TN ACTIVITY
AFFECTS MAINLY THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THAT DEPICTION WHILE
THE LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM ACTIVITY DOES NOT MAKE IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SUPPORTS EARLIER DECISION TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
NRN CWA NEAR THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. IN THE FAR EASTERN
CWA WHERE SKIES CLEARED EARLIER AND THERE HAS BEEN MORE TIME TO
DESTABILIZE...PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW 500 J OR SO OF CAPE WHICH
WARRANTED A CHC MENTION THERE. DEPENDING ON HOW SOON THE STRATUS
CLEAR OUT IN THE WEST AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...SUBSEQUENT
REVISIONS MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA.

FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY MID EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AS WINDS WILL
KEEP THE AREA FROM EXPERIENCING PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
LIKELY KEEPING FOG AT BAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AS WELL.

CLEAR SKIES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE DEEP MIXING ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...GENERALLY
IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND REACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LARGE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. HENCE...EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED SAT THROUGH SUN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION.

MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER CHILLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR BOTH FRI NIGHT
AND SAT NIGHT WITH GENERALLY MID 30S FOR LOWS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
WIND/CLOUDS FRI NIGHT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST...BUT CONDITIONS
SAT NIGHT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD FROST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO PER A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE QUIET
WITH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUILD AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AND
IT THEN HOLDS SWAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THU PER HPC/GFS GUIDANCE...BUT THE 00Z ECM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2100 UTC UPDATE...DIDN/T SEE MUCH REASON TO KEEP TEMPO TS GOING
UNTIL 23Z SO REMOVED MENTION. SOME -SHRA ARE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF
THE TERMINAL ALONG A LINE N/S. THE HRRR HAS PREDICTED THIS WELL AND
WILL GO WITH A NON/THREAT TSTMS AT KCLT AS ADVERTISED BY THAT
MODEL.

AT KCLT...LOW VFR CU HAVE RAPIDLY BROKEN OUT NEAR THE AIRFIELD.
EXPECT BASES OF THESE CU TO GRADUALLY RAISE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
STILL NOT THAT CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY...BUT THEY
ALL SEEM TO HAVE OVERDONE PRECIP THIS MORNING AROUND THE REGION.
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FORECAST BY NAM AND RUC MODELS TO
WARRANT A TEMPO FOR THUNDER THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW GIVEN
THE POOR PERFORMANCE SO FAR TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THE NORTH BEING
NEARER A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE EAST SEEING THE MOST
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KHKY LOOKS LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY SITE TO BE AFFECTED BY PRECIP/THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ENOUGH I WILL ONLY MENTION VCTS. BEHIND THE FRONT SOME CIRRUS
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD INTO TOMORROW WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
SPINNING TO OUR NORTHWEST. CLEAR ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
CALM COMPLETELY AND WE WILL ALSO SEE MOISTURE DIMINISH AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT OR MORE AT TIMES OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MTNS AND 70S FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY WILL COMBINE WITH DRIER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION TO PUSH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FRI AFTN. IN ADDITION...BREEZY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT PASSING THIS
AFTN/EVENING...FUELS COULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO CREATE HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER IN SOME AREAS FRI AFTN. RAIN CHANCES ARE BEST OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AND ERN PIEDMONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGH THU.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...SBK/WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
524 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-192130-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
524 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
730 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             3 W CHERRYVILLE         35.39N 81.43W
10/18/2012  E0.75 INCH       GASTON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED A TOTAL OF NO MORE THAN TWO MINUTES WITH THE
            LARGEST BEING ABOUT DIME SIZED. ALSO HAD GUSTY WIND WHEN
            THE STORM ARRIVED BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN ANY
            LIMBS AT THEIR RESIDENCE.

&&

OUTLAW

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