Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1030 PM EDT UPDATE...RADAR STILL INDICATES SOME DEVELOPING WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CROSSING S/W. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER OCONEE CO IN SC
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EAST OF THE CWFA. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR ISSUES WITH THESE STORMS
BESIDES OCCASIONAL CTG LIGHTNING AND VERY LOCALIZED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FCST SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE UNTIL
THE NEXT UPDATE.

AS OF 930 PM EDT...THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. VERY MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL REMAIN AND -SHRA
COULD LINGER...HOWEVER NO FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL REMAIN IN A VERY
STAGNANT AIRMASS. THEREFORE...NO REALISTIC CHANCE OF A NEW FLOODING
THREAT EXISTS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE GOOD MODEL SOUNDING INDICATIONS
THAT DRIER MLVL AIR WILL MIX IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND THIS
ALONG WITH HIGHLY SATURATED LLVLS COULD ENABLE A DENSE FG THREAT
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS BY DAYBREAK....POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AS WELL.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...ONCE THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN
OFF...INSTABILITY SHOULD RAMP UP QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS MOIST AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUICKLY FROM THE
NW. LESS IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS WILL BE FOUND ON WED...BUT WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST AND DELTA THETA E VALUES AROUND 30 K
WED AFTN WILL MAKE FOR A DECENT WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH ANY
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WED EVENING...GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR-NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
BECOME MODERATELY...IF NOT STRONGLY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE
USUAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AREAS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...AND NEAR
REMNANT BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH W/IN INSTABILITY AXIS JUST
EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA. WEAK SHEAR/FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LIMITED COVERAGE...SO WE WILL JUST FEATURE A SHOTGUN LOW CHANCE POP
FOR NOW. OWING TO VERY DRY MID-LEVELS/FORECAST DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL STRONGLY ACROSS
THE OHIO/MID MISS VALLEY...AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF
VORTICITY DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. A MOIST WAA REGIME DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE...SO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONGLY FORCED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF THE CWFA FOR DAY 4...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE STRONG FORCING AND FORECAST
SOUNDING DEPICTION OF MODERATE CAPE VALUES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
ARGUMENTS AGAINST ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT IS SOMEWHAT STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR PROFILES IS RESULTING IN A MAGNITUDE
OF ONLY 25 KT (AT BEST). ALSO...THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING...WHICH MAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE THE LEVEL OF INSTABILITY DEPICTED IN THE
SOUNDINGS. NEVERTHELESS...IT/S HARD TO BELIEVE THAT WE WON/T ESCAPE
SUCH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM WITHOUT SEEING AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE WEATHER...SO THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SOLID CHANCE/LIKELY
POPS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWFA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. AFTER A
STORMY FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...THE WEEKEND MAY TURN OUT TO BE QUITE
PLEASANT...WITH TEMPS AVERAGING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND POPS/
POSSIBLY RH AVERAGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODELS SUGGEST AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR QUICKLY IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...AS BERMUDA HIGH ALLOWS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO RETURN. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
SHOULD YIELD MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS...WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED ON DAYS 6/7. TEMPS WILL
ALSO LIKELY TO CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS MAKING FOR TRICKY
WIND DIRECTIONS. WENT WITH A PREVAILING SE/LY...BUT ADDED A STRONGER
AND GUSTY VRB WIND IN THE TEMPO THROUGH 03Z. BASED ON THE STORM
LOCATIONS TO THE S...E...AND N OF THE TERMINAL WINDS COULD SWING
NE/LY OR SW/LY AS OUTFLOWS AND INFLOWS ARE GENERATED. DONT SEE A
GREAT CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUING AFT MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING
-SHRA IS PROBABLE. WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND CALM CONDS...EXPECT CIGS
TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR RANGE BEFORE DAYBREAK AND
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND NOON. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR OR AT THE
AIRFIELD AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...A VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTIVE THREAT EXISTS AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON/S SCT TSTMS. EXPECT VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS TO HELP FORM MFVR/IFR CIGS AFT MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A DENSE FG THREAT AT KAVL...KHKY...AND KAND AS
DRIER MLVL AIR PUSHES IN AND ENABLES DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDS. WITH STAGNANT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOOSE P/GRAD...A RETURN
TO VFR AT ALL SITES WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL TSTM PATTERN
IS EXPECTED ON WED AND THU. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON
FRI TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. DRIER HIGH
PRES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...HG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-081945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
332 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD RESULT WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY AFFECT THE SAME LOCATION. IN ADDITION...
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
822 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

NCZ036-056-057-069-071-072-080100-
CABARRUS-CATAWBA-IREDELL-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-ROWAN-
822 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHERN
MECKLENBURG...NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA...
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL AND SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM
EDT...

AT 819 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE NORMAN...OR 17 MILES
EAST OF LINCOLNTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  NORMAN...TERRELL...MOUNT ULLA...MOORESVILLE...LANDIS...
  ENOCHVILLE...DENVER...DAVIDSON...CORNELIUS AND CHINA GROVE.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3539 8096 3539 8097 3540 8096 3540 8099
      3554 8108 3576 8071 3553 8055

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
902 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

NCZ502>504-080145-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
902 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BURKE AND WESTERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 858 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF TABLE ROCK...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF
MORGANTON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TABLE ROCK
  AND MORGANTON.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3597 8182 3595 8178 3593 8178 3593 8175
      3589 8173 3592 8168 3589 8160 3572 8168
      3576 8193 3578 8195 3598 8186

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
922 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

NCZ508-080200-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-
922 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

AT 918 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPINDALE...OR 3 MILES EAST OF
RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BOSTIC...
  THERMAL CITY...SPINDALE...RUTHERFORDTON...FOREST CITY AND ALEXANDER
  MILLS.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3552 8197 3553 8194 3538 8176 3524 8190
      3531 8203 3533 8205 3534 8207 3541 8215
      3555 8200

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
932 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW FORT MILL          35.03N 80.97W
08/07/2012                   YORK               SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS ROADWAY CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER
            AT THE INTERSECTION OF PLEASANT ROAD AND STEELE CREEK
            ROAD.

0815 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WNW PINEVILLE         35.10N 80.93W
08/07/2012                   YORK               SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED A STREAM OF WATER SEVERAL INCHES DEEP
            CROSSING THE SOUTH BOUND LANES OF INTERSTATE 77 ADJACENT
            TO CAROWINDS.

0810 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PINEVILLE               35.08N 80.89W
08/07/2012                   MECKLENBURG        NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW BACK ROADS CLOSED AROUND PINEVILLE DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W PINEVILLE           35.08N 80.93W
08/07/2012                   YORK               SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY 21 AND REGENT PARKWAY.

0834 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W PINEVILLE           35.09N 80.96W
08/07/2012                   YORK               SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            ALTURA ROAD AND PLEASANT ROAD WHICH IS ABOUT A MILE
            SOUTHWEST OF CAROWINDS.

0806 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W CHARLOTTE           35.20N 80.85W
08/07/2012                   MECKLENBURG        NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TWO SWIFT WATER RESCUES OCCURRED ON CHARLOTTES WEST SIDE.
            ONE RESCUE WAS AT A LOW POINT IN THE ROAD NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF ASHLEY ROAD AND WILKINSON BLVD. THE OTHER
            RESCUE OCCURRED DUE TO A CLOGGED UP STORM DRAIN NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF WESLEY VILLAGE AND FREEDOM DRIVE.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

NCZ035-080315-
ALEXANDER-
1035 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER COUNTY THROUGH 1115 PM
EDT...

AT 1032 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 5
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  TAYLORSVILLE...HIDDENITE AND ELLENDALE.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3590 8105 3581 8133 3582 8134 3589 8133
      3592 8135 3600 8132 3603 8127 3604 8121
      3604 8109

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1200 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

GAZ010-080445-
RABUN-
1200 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN RABUN COUNTY THROUGH
1245 AM EDT...

AT 1154 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS NEAR TIGER...OR 3 MILES WEST
OF CLAYTON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3492 8362 3492 8360 3494 8360 3495 8356
      3499 8356 3500 8355 3492 8332 3475 8338
      3477 8356 3479 8356 3483 8360 3483 8365

KRENTZ