Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
MONDAY...AND LINGERING IN THE VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS KICKING OFF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY A LITTLE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THERE
AREN/T ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE FA...AND
I/M EXPECTING QUIET CONDITIONS UNTIL MID AFTN. THEREAFTER ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND SW
MOUNTAINS. THE OLD GFS AND NEW NAM HAVE MODEST LLVL CONVERGENCE
ALONG A WEAK SFC BNDRY OVER THE REGION...AND SCT CONVECTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTN. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS
REFLECT ALL OF THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
/TODAY/ PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING TO THE EAST...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL THE TYPICAL DIURNAL ACTIVITY GETS GOING LATER TODAY.

MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MARKED WITH
DNVA ACROSS OUR AREA. THE NAM ACTUALLY IS DEVELOPING AN AREA OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY 12Z ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST TAIL OF THE VORT MAX. THIS IS
INTERESTING...BUT IT SHOULD ALSO BE SAID THAT THE NAM NEVER ALLOWS
SBCAPE TO FALL BELOW 3000 J/KG THIS MORNING. AS OF 07Z...THE CAPE IN
THIS AREAS WAS LESS THAN 500 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. THE NAM JUST
HAS COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC THERMO PROFILES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY (CAPE
> 4000 BY 15Z). IN FACT...IT DEVELOPS A SECOND CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ALMOST IN THE SAME PLACE AS THIS MORNING/S. VERY
LITTLE ABOUT THE NAM MAKES A LOT OF SENSE TODAY. THEREFORE...IT HAS
ESSENTIALLY BEEN DISREGARDED IN FAVOR OF THE MORE MUTED GFS AND
SREF. THIS MEANS POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES.

CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE SECOND PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING
BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...ANTICIPATE A PERSISTENT PATTERN FRI THROUGH SAT
OF A SRN U.S. RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THE FIRST DAMPENING SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MAY
REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE FRI. IN ADDITION...MOIST SRLY FLOW
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE LATE FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT COULD CREATE SOME
LOCALIZED HYDRO PROBLEMS. MOIST LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE SAT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY H5 WAVE POSSIBLY ARRIVING IN
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPENING
MOISTURE IN THE PROFILES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND SOLID CHC POPS WILL
BE NEEDED FRI AND SAT...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE
SAT. MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND THEN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THU...A DEEP AND MOIST SW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. WILL NEED
FAIRLY SOLID POPS BOTH DAYS.

UPPER LEVEL NW WINDS BEHIND THE ATLANTIC COAST TROUGH AXIS COULD
BRING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...BUT THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON
THIS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT ISOLD TO
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KAVL...AS THERE IS
SOME FOG AND STRATUS SHOWING UP IN SATELLITE DATA JUST DOWN-VALLEY
OF THE TERMINAL...AND THEY HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN REPORTING FEW004.
IF A CIG DOES DEVELOP THERE...IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF...AND GONE BY
13Z. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY AS
SPARSE IN COVERAGE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF
CONVECTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...ISLD/SCT AFTN-EVE TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. MTN VLYS
WILL SEE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-031800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
150 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1006 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNE NEWTON            35.74N 81.18W
08/02/2012                   CATAWBA            NC   PUBLIC

            TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN AROUND THE ROCK BARN GOLF COURSE.

&&

TW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
111 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ504>506-508-021800-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-GREATER RUTHERFORD-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
111 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTHERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM
EDT...

AT 108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN RUTHERFORD...SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTHERN
BURKE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

MARION...GLENWOOD AND DYSARTSVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3562 8172 3546 8195 3569 8210 3577 8200

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ068-508-021815-
CLEVELAND-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
152 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 148 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF CASAR...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF
MORGANTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

CASAR AND POLKVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3553 8156 3536 8159 3546 8183 3560 8174

NED