Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

July 28, 2012Polk County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this special weather statement at Jul 28, 2012, 3:37 PM EDT for Polk County, North Carolina. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 28, 2012, 3:37 PM EDT (19:37 UTC)
Expired: Jul 28, 2012, 4:15 PM EDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

County Polk County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 228 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 733 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -49 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 936 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 48 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 28, 2:04 PM EDT, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 28, 2:04 PM EDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN UPSTATE AND THE NC FOOHILLS DOWN TO CHARLOTTE.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO POOL TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE LEE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE TO SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE WITH LOW TO MID
70S THERE. BASED ON THE DRYER AIR WORKING IN...EXPECT THAT
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT AND
WHERE SBCAPES ARE THE HIGHEST IN EXCESS 2000J. LOOKS LIKE 55DBZ
CORES TO 24K WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE TODAY BASED ON DCAPES
>1000J. DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SHORT WAVE MOVING SE
THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL SLIP INTO THE LEE TROUGH POSITION TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER WAVE
DEPARTS AND WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS BY 04Z. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AGAIN WITH LOWS REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE WEAK FRONTAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY MOVES SE OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL SERVE TO
CAP ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. WITH STRONG INSOLATION ON SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER
VERY WARM/TO HOT DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH
EVEN SOME 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...SO HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE BELOW
MID SUMMER AVERAGE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEAN EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ROUNDING ITS BASE ON MONDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW THE GREATEST MOISTURE OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH ALONG
THE REMAINS OF A SURFACE FRONT...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A THIN
MOIST LAYER AT AROUND 800 MB. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THEIR USUAL
DISPARITY IN REGARDS TO INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN A MEAN OF THE TWO
WOULD HAVE CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR EXISTS
FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. WITH WEAK SHEAR...PULSE TYPE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEAK STEERING FLOW
MAY ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
BUT WITH MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED...NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGICAL
PROBLEMS ARE FORESEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND NORMAL.

AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW MORE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AS THE REMAINS OF THE OLD
BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THE GFS
SOUNDING FOR TUESDAY APPEARS QUITE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...EXCEPT THAT
IT HAS SLIGHTLY BETTER WIND SHEAR. AGAIN...PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THE MAIN MODE OF CONVECTION...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER STEERING FLOW
KEEPING RAINFALL TOTALS FORM BECOMING PROBLEMATIC...DESPITE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPICTED IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...AN EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN WILL DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...WITH NORMAL
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE EXPECTED. WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT WILL BE THE BEST FORCING FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN HEAT OR OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION. POPS
WILL BE HELD AT NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH CHANCE POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE LEE...MAXIMIZED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. THE LOWEST POPS WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WITH THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER TROUGH
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER
THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS CONVECTIVE THREAT. BASED
ON LATEST STORM SCALE MODEL RUNS...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE AIRFIELD IN THE 22Z-01Z TIMEFRAME AS AN
UPPER WAVE PASSES BY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER
CONVECTION PASEES SE OF THE AIRFIELD AROUND 01Z...EXPECT SCATTERING
VFR DEBRIS CLOUDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE IF RAIN OCCURS AT AIRFIELD. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A VFR
DAY AS A CAPPING INVERSION WILL KEEP CONVECTIONIN CHECK.I

ELSEWHERE...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN
AREAS...SO WILL CARRY A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KHKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...POPS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANYTHING BUT A VCTS/CB FOR NOW.
CONVECTION WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH SCATTERING VFR DEBRIS
CLOUDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KAVL LATE
TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH A CAPPING INVERSION KEEPING
CONVECTION IN CHECK.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 28, 2:42 PM EDT, 55 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-291930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
242 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 28, 9:43 AM EDT, 5 hours 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
943 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW GREENWOOD         34.20N 82.18W
07/27/2012                   GREENWOOD          SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN IN CEDAR LAKE SUBDIVISION

&&

PTANNER

Local storm report, Jul 28, 9:59 AM EDT, 5 hours 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
959 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE TIGERVILLE        35.04N 82.30W
07/27/2012                   GREENVILLE         SC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN AND TREE DOWN ON FEWS CHAPEL ROAD NEAR
            HWY 101

&&

PTANNER

Local storm report, Jul 28, 10:32 AM EDT, 5 hours 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WSW CROSS KEYS        34.60N 81.87W
07/27/2012                   SPARTANBURG        SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE IN ROADWAY AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN IN MUSGROVE MILL ST
            PK.

&&

PTANNER

Local storm report, Jul 28, 11:05 AM EDT, 4 hours 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 ESE GREENWOOD         34.15N 82.04W
07/27/2012                   GREENWOOD          SC   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN IN NINETY-SIX NATIONAL HISTORIC SITE.

&&

07

Special weather statement, Jul 28, 3:11 PM EDT, 26 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

NCZ504-506-281945-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-
311 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTHERN
BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 307 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEBO...OR 7 MILES EAST OF MARION...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DYSARTSVILLE...
  MORGANTON...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3570 8156 3556 8166 3558 8171 3561 8172
      3560 8173 3561 8175 3559 8178 3559 8180
      3558 8180 3557 8183 3568 8203 3573 8200
      3581 8185

ARK

Special weather statement, Jul 28, 3:37 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

NCZ065-508>510-SCZ007-282015-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
337 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...EASTERN
HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
EDT...

AT 332 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DANA...OR 5 MILES EAST OF HENDERSONVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  EDNEYVILLE...TRYON...SALUDA...MILL SPRING...LAKE ADGER...
  HENDERSONVILLE...FLAT ROCK...EAST FLAT ROCK...DANA...COLUMBUS...
  LANDRUM AND CAMPOBELLO.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3543 8227 3540 8226 3540 8221 3542 8217
      3540 8196 3510 8213 3514 8222 3520 8222
      3519 8232 3528 8250 3544 8241

07

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 28, 3:33 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Graham, Haywood, Madison, Swain	57 min
Jul 28, 3:11 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Burke	34 min
Jul 28, 3:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Cleveland	46 min
Jul 28, 3:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Polk	46 min
Jul 28, 4:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Burke, Catawba, Cleveland, Gaston, Lincoln	45 min
Jul 28, 4:51 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Gaston, Lincoln	39 min
Jul 28, 5:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Alexander, Iredell	44 min
Jul 28, 7:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Davie, Rowan	35 min
Jul 27, 8:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Greenwood	55 min
Jul 27, 9:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Greenville	47 min
Jul 27, 9:51 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Spartanburg	39 min
Jul 27, 10:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Spartanburg	40 min
Jul 28, 1:04 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Chester	26 min
Jul 28, 6:02 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Spartanburg	28 min
Jul 28, 7:31 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Chester	44 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.