Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THEN A SERIES
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND NWRN PIEDMONT WITH SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOLID SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND SRN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. CHC OF
CONVECTION LESSENS SOUTH AND WEST OF THESE AREAS. KEPT SCT
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS...WITH ISOLATED MOST OF NE GA AND THE
UPSTATE. STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT EXTREME...DCAPE IS HIGHER THAN PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODERATE THRU THE AFTERNOON. STILL
EXPECT SVR CHC TO BE HIGHER TODAY WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT...AND FLOODING CHC TO BE LOWER WITH LOWER PW VALUES THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS.

CONVECTION SHUD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY BUT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE NRN STREAM FLOW IS GENERALLY TO OUR NE...WE WILL BE
CLOSE ENUF FOR A SHORT WAVE RIDING THRU THE FLOW TO CROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTH AND ERN PORTION OF THE CWFA. H7 TEMPS INCREASE WITH THE
RIDGING...BUT THE NAM DOES NOT INCREASE AS MUCH AS THE GFS. THE TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH ENUF MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT SFC PARCELS WILL
OVERCOME THE CAP SO CONVECTION INITIATES...EVEN ON THE GFS. ALSO THE
SHORT WAVE SHUD PRODUCE ENUF FORCING TO OVERCOME THE CAP AS WELL. A
LEE TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA PROVIDING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POP TO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THE NORTH AND 30 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST CLOSER TO THE
RIDGE. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE WARMER MID
LEVEL TEMPS...BUT DCAPE WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
TODAY...ISOLATED SVR AGAIN POSSIBLE. HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...WITH ENERGY PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS ATOP
THE CWFA WILL LOWER A TAD AND EFFECTIVE NW FLOW WILL INCREASE
LEADING TO DEVELOPING LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGHING. SENSIBLE WX FCST WILL
FEATURE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWFA. AIDED BY A LLVL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...
WILL PLAN ON BOOSTING MAX TEMPS A FEW DEG F ABOVE PERSISTENCE...
FEATURING PIEDMONT MIDDLE 90S.

NOT SURPRISINGLY GIVEN THE LINGERING PATTERN...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MCS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT A PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PLAN ON MAINTAINING A HEDGE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-40 INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MEAN PATTERN CHANGES
LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL A BIT.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED
TSTMS CWFAWIDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND DEEP CONVECTION...AN
INFLUX OF LESS WARM AIR WILL MAKE INROADS INTO W NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THEN THE FRONT PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH BY THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FRI-SAT WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE DIURNAL INSTABILITY...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE AVG THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION ONGOING CLOSE ENUF TO KCLT TO INCLUDE TEMPO VFR
TSRA WITH THIS PACKAGE. WILL KEEP THE TEMPO THRU 00Z AND AMD AS
CELLS APPROACH THE AIRFIELD. CONVECTION SHUD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. ANY LOW CLOUD SHUD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE JUST MVFR VSBY...BUT IF TSRA MOVE OVER THEN MVFR
POSSIBLE. WIND SHUD RETURN SWLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT S TO
CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SWLY WIND MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION APPROACHING KHKY AND HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TSRA
THERE. TSRA WILL BE NEAR KAVL AS WELL...BUT MUCH LESS CHC AT THE SC
SITES. THEREFORE...KEPT THEM CONVECTION FREE. CONVECTION SHUD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUD POSSIBLE BY MORNING AT
KHKY WITH IFR FOG LIKELY AT KAVL. CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE AT KHKY
WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR FOG
AROUND DAYBREAK AT KAND. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHUD LIFT QUICKLY MONDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY SWLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT
WITH W TO SW WIND MONDAY. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WITH SLY WIND BECOMING
CALM OVERNIGHT AND NLY MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FOR THE WORK WEEK TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-231915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
311 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
123 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

NCZ501>504-221745-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
123 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CALDWELL AND NORTHERN BURKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 120 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM PATTERSON TO LENOIR TO TABLE ROCK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RUTHERFORD
  COLLEGE...LAKE RHODHISS...PATTERSON...KINGS CREEK...VALDESE...
  TABLE ROCK...SAWMILLS...RHODHISS...LENOIR...
  ICARD...HUDSON...HILDEBRAN...  GRANITE FALLS...GAMEWELL...DREXEL...
  CONNELLY SPRINGS...COLLETTSVILLE AND CAJAH'S MOUNTAIN.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3608 8141 3601 8132 3592 8135 3588 8133
      3577 8136 3565 8146 3586 8187 3590 8179
      3592 8175 3593 8178 3596 8171 3605 8170
      3609 8144

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

NCZ035-056-501-502-504-221830-
ALEXANDER-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-CATAWBA-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
148 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BURKE...NORTHERN CATAWBA...
SOUTHERN CALDWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM
EDT...

AT 143 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
KINGS CREEK TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TABLE ROCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MORGANTON...
  HUDSON...
  ELLENDALE...
  RUTHERFORD COLLEGE...
  CONNELLY SPRINGS...
  ICARD...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3589 8112 3563 8152 3581 8186 3587 8178
      3589 8173 3591 8174 3592 8174 3602 8157

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

NCZ053-221845-
BUNCOMBE-
159 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

AT 154 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WOODFIN...OR 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...
  ASHEVILLE MALL...
  BILTMORE FOREST...
  SWANNANOA...
  FAIRVIEW...
  FAIRVIEW...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3561 8228 3558 8228 3547 8241 3545 8247
      3544 8253 3560 8273 3573 8257

JOH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LENOIR                  35.91N 81.53W
07/22/2012                   CALDWELL           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND UTILITY LINES DOWN BLOCKING AT LEAST ONE ROAD.

&&

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

NCZ035-036-056-502-221930-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-GREATER CALDWELL-IREDELL-
242 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CATAWBA...SOUTHEASTERN
CALDWELL...SOUTHERN ALEXANDER AND WESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH
330 PM EDT...

AT 238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF ELLENDALE...OR 7 MILES WEST OF
TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ST. STEPHENS...
  TAYLORSVILLE...
  CONOVER...
  CLAREMONT...
  LOOKOUT SHOALS LAKE...
  STONY POINT...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3593 8085 3565 8109 3582 8153 3598 8132

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

NCZ505-221945-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
320 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 316 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OLD FORT...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MARION...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  OLD FORT...

BRIEF PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3553 8208 3553 8211 3555 8222 3556 8224
      3556 8225 3562 8226 3565 8208

LANE