Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY FOR NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A WIDELY SCT
CU FIELD CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. BEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE LOW LVLS HEAT UP. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO RISE SO FAR TODAY
WITH THE GOOD RAINFALL WE GOT YESTERDAY ACTING AS A BUFFER TO THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG INSOLATION. BASED ON THIS
TREND...I BUMPED MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST HIGHS. GOING FOR A HIGH OF AROUND 96 FOR GSP AND
AROUND 90 FOR KAVL. I ALSO TRIMMED POPS BACK ABOUT 5 TO 10% BUT KEPT
A SOLID CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER CALM NIGHT IS IN STORE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE AGAIN FOR
SOME MT VALLEY FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IF TEMPS CAN DROP ENOUGH.
OF COURSE...IF WE WIND UP NOT SEEING MUCH PRECIP TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE LOWER.

FOR TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN AND THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA...BUT THE OVERALL
POPS ARE LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. ANY MID TO UPPER LVL SUPPORT
SHOULD ALSO BE LESS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MID LVLS
WARMING A BIT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AGAIN BUT RELIEF IS IN
SIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SAT
NIGHT-SUN...THEN WEAKENS SUN NIGHT-MON AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE AREA. EVEN WITH A RIDGE OVERHEAD
SUN...THE AREA DESTABILIZES WITH HEATING IN THE AFTN AND CAPE VALUES
GET QUITE HIGH. WITHOUT MUCH SHEAR...ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD BE
MINIMAL BUT SCT LATE DAY SHWRS/TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED...MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS WHERE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION SUN NIGHT AS UPPER
FORCING IMPROVES WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROF. THEN POPS RAMP UP ON MON AS GULF MOISTURE IS PULLED UP
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC
FRONT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVG THRU THE PD. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE U90S E OF THE MTNS SUN...THEN 5-8 DEG COOLER ON MON WITH
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BREAK DOWN
BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE MONDAY AND STALLS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A PROLONGED WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OUR AREA ALONG WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE BAND SETTLING ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMIAN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR
VISBY EARLY THIS EVENING IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING. I INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS FROM 22 TO 24Z WITH BKN CB. OTHER THAN
THAT...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT S TO SELY BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA AND WINDS OUT OF THE SW.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF VCTS AT ALL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT IF CONVECTION CAN INITIATE. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE
OVER KAVL AS LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING DEWPTS HIGHER AND
GENERATING MORE INSTABILITY THRU THE EVENING. KAVL COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VALLEY FOG TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN ABOUT 9 AND 12Z IF
TEMPS DROP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT AND IF THEY RECEIVE ANY PRECIP. I AM
THINKING THEY PROBABLY WONT GO BELOW VFR VISBY SO I DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM
THE EAST WITH CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SWLY WINDS DEVELOPING
AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE...
ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN FALLS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JULY 6TH  93 IN 1993
JULY 7TH  95 IN 1993

GSP
JULY 6TH  100 IN 1993
JULY 7TH  100 IN 1993

CLT
JULY 6TH   99 IN 1930
JULY 7TH  100 IN 1993

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JPT
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-071900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
259 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO- GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1051 AM EDT FRI JUL 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE MONROE            34.93N 80.51W
07/05/2012                   UNION              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON MECEDONIA CHURCH AND MEDLIN ROADS.

&&

JOH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1102 AM EDT FRI JUL 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONROE                  34.99N 80.54W
07/05/2012                   UNION              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON WEST FRANKLIN
            STREET AND BRAGG STREET.

&&

JOH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1240 PM EDT FRI JUL 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E EDGEMOOR            34.81N 80.96W
07/05/2012                   CHESTER            SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WIND.

&&

LGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

NCZ053-062000-
BUNCOMBE-
333 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM EDT...

AT 328 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WOODFIN...OR 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  I-26 AT I-40...
  LEICESTER...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3552 8266 3564 8274 3569 8256 3560 8250

MCAVOY