Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME RELIEF WILL
BEGIN BY MID WEEK...HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
0230 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR IN SC BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS.

AT 10 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS. OUR AREA REMAINS AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CAPE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THE LEAST
CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED. WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL EXTENDED IN TIME ONE HOUR IN UPSTATE
SC. THE NC COUNTIES WILL BE CLEARED FROM THE WATCH. RADAR SHOWS NEW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING FORM THE GREAT SMOKE MOUNTAINS TO THE KGSP
AREA...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY...
THAT MAY SURVIVE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. IT APPEARS THAT IF THIS
SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA...IT WOULD BE THE
NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF OUR AREA IN NC. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...BUT FORECAST VALUES HAVE BEEN LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AS RAINFALL HAS ALREADY LOWERED TEMPERATURES
BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MINIMUMS.

WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT...AND THE ASSOCIATED ENHANCED
MCV POTENTIAL...NOT TO MENTION ANOTHER DAY OF VERY UNSTABLE
AIR...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER
TOMORROW...ESP ACROSS THE NC ZONES. 30-40 POPS WILL BE CARRIED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT TOMORROW...DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESS VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY
BE REACHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...IT DOESNT APPEAR AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS NECESSARY ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE H590 RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE SHIFT IN
THE RIDGE WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY WARM
SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN SHALLOWER LAPSE RATES.
I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS OVER THE MTNS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN CHC POPS EXPANDING EAST OF THE MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH WELL INTO
THE U90S EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT LIKELY BREAKING OUR CURRENT STREAK
OF 100 OR GREATER. RECORD TEMPS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL RIPPLE TOWARD THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE SOME MID
LEVEL SUPPORT. IN ADDITION...A LEE TROF SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AIDING IN LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THESE
FEATURES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE A
LITTLE GREATER ON THE 4TH. I WILL FORECAST 50 POPS OVER THE RIDGES
AND 30S EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 90 WITHIN THE
MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO U90S EAST...LIKELY SHORT OF RECORDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HAD
IN THE EXT RANGE FCST. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE SE CONUS WX...WHILE THE 12Z GFS/CMC
ALLOW FOR MORE DEEP LAYERED MERIDIONAL FLOW AND THUS A MORE ACTIVE
MCS TRACK SCENARIO THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE
LLVL MOISTURE SUPPLIED BY THE H85 HIGH FLOW RETURNING EAST OUT OF THE
GULF AND A FAIRLY DEFINITIVE LEE SIDE TROF FOR A FOCUSING REGION OF
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE
PROBABLE NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY...THE EXT RANGE SHOULD BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL CONVECTIVELY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING
EACH DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STAGNANT SFC-H5 AIRMASS ON THU
AND PW/S AROUND 1.7 INCHES. NO LLVL JET WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY...YET STILL THE THREAT MAY BE THERE FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY
PRECIP AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE HOT AS THE
LLVL FLOW MAINTAINS A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN A GENERAL
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PATTERN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE L/M90S
NON/MTNS AND U80S MTN VALLEYS EACH DAY. MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN A
COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION WILL LEAVE THE AREA AND DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE CARRIED AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONVECTION IN
THE OH VALLEY WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT CHANCE IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT...AND LIGHT FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE WILL
NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
AT KAVL...WHERE GUIDANCE LENDS SUPPORT...AND KHKY...WHERE RAINFALL
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTIVE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...GRADUAL INCREASE IN AIR MASS MOISTURE AND CHANGES IN
STEERING FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JULY 1ST  96 IN 1954
JULY 2ND  93 IN 1970
JULY 3RD  93 IN 1970

GSP
JULY 1ST   99 IN 1970
JULY 2ND  101 IN 1954
JULY 3RD   99 IN 1931
JULY 4TH  100 IN 1993

CLT
JULY 1ST   99 IN 1954
JULY 2ND  101 IN 1931
JULY 3RD   99 IN 1970
JULY 4TH   99 IN 1993

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/JDL
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1258 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-082-509-
510-SCZ001>014-019-030500-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-UNION NC-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1258 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA AND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THESE
STORMS COULD HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A MAJOR HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WORK
WEEK. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD REACH
OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY
REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN MANY LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY...AS A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-501>508-030500-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
1258 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA AND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A MAJOR HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WORK
WEEK. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD REACH
OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY
REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN MANY LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY...AS A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
105 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE MONROE            34.93N 80.51W
07/01/2012                   UNION              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON MACEDONIA CHURCH ROAD AND PAGELAND HWY.

&&

MOORE

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