Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
431 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...UPDATED FORECAST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. BEST CHC OF
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE UPSTATE/NE GA.
LESS CHC OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND TN BORDER.

AT 1430 EDT SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE UPSTREAM CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE DOING SO ON
SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN MOIST BETWEEN 850 AND 700
MB...AS THE REMAINS OF A FRONT LINGER IN OUR VICINITY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER FROM THE NE TO THE E OR SE TONIGHT...BEFORE
VEERING TO S ON SUNDAY. POPS WILL FAVOR THE BLUE RIDGE IN A WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AN
EARLIER START SUNDAY THAN TODAY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
IMPULSE. MODEL INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO BE GREATER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY...WITH LESS CHANCE OF A MID LEVEL CAP. SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE AT BENEATH THE MOIST LAYER BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND DOWNDRAFTS.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN A MOIST AIR MASS WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS WELL AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY EVENING
WITH ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD LINGER INTO THE
MID/LATE EVENING BEFORE DYING. A CHANCE POP SHOULD COVER THAT
POSSIBILITY. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AN
AMPLIFYING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DIVES DOWN THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND AND AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE SPINS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL VEER AND STRENGTHEN FROM THE NW AND NNW THROUGH MONDAY WHICH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE N IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER
FORCING LOOKS MINIMAL AND THE MODELS SHOW ONLY RELATIVELY SHALLOW
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE AMT OF BUOYANCY SHOWN BY THE MODELS IS
COMPELLING WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE GOOD LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GUIDANCE WAS DISAPPOINTING
WITH THE MOSGUIDE HAVING A VERY LOW CHANCE AND THE SREF HAVING A
VERY HIGH CHANCE. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WHICH PUTS AREAS ALONG
AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE 30-50 PCT RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFT S WITH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE BOUNDARY IS THROUGH...DRY AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY WITH VERY LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS TO
BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS. THE
RESULTING NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP US DRY UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY RISING
ABOVE NORMAL. THE PATTERN STARTS TO EVOLVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
WAVELENGTH OF THE RIDGE BROADENS AND ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM CROSSES
CANADA TO KICK OUT/REPLACE THE EASTERN UPPER LOW. THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY WNW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MTNS AND ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE HELD BACK ON TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON DAY 7...SO HPC GUIDANCE WAS CUT BACK BY A
CATEGORY OR SO. THE OTHER RESULT MIGHT BE THAT WE COME A LITTLE MORE
IN ALIGNMENT WITH AN MCS TRACK BY SATURDAY...WHICH IS INDICATED BY
THE GFS BUT NOT THE OLDER ECMWF. WILL ALLOW PRECIP CHANCES TO COME
AROUND TO A CLIMATOLOGICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM TYPE REGIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. AT ANY RATE...UNLESS THERE IS SOME
MAJOR CHANGE...NONE OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF BRINGING ANY
TROPICAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...WE LOOK INSULATED
FROM WHATEVER BECOMES OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE GULF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE STILL RATHER LIMITED...AS A MID
LEVEL WARM NOSE MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. FOR NOW A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE
CARRIED LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDER AND A LOW VFR CIG...BUT NO
RAIN OF VSBY RESTRICTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT NE UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THEY VEER TO THE ESE.
GUIDANCE DOES NOT RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IF RAIN
FALLS...FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY... POSSIBLE EARLY...IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL
IMPULSE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CARRY POPS AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OT DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS. AT THIS TIME ONLY
VCTS WILL BE CARRIED UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON LOCATION AND
TIMING. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SE BY EVENING. THE BEST
BET FOR A RESTRICTION WILL BE KAVL...WHERE GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE.
MVFR VSBY WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL TO START WITH...BUT IF RAIN FALLS
THERE...IFR OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER SITES WILL REMAIN VFR
IN THE TAF...BUT AGAIN RAINFALL COULD CHANGE THIS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
ARRIVING MID LEVEL SYSTEM....BUT CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP MONDAY...AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-
082-507>510-SCZ001>014-019-240900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
459 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-501>506-240900-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
459 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...AND NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL
AS LARGE AS QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

GAZ028-SCZ004-010-232100-
ANDERSON-GREATER OCONEE-HART-
413 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HART...SOUTHEASTERN
OCONEE AND WESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OAKWAY...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEMSON...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FAIR PLAY...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3440 8303 3447 8306 3450 8305 3451 8308
      3460 8304 3464 8295 3452 8278

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

NCZ504>506-508-232115-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-GREATER RUTHERFORD-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
426 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN RUTHERFORD...SOUTHERN
BURKE AND SOUTHERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF SUGAR HILL...OR 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MARION...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MARION...
  GLENWOOD...
  DYSARTSVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3572 8175 3549 8180 3557 8217 3571 8215

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

SCZ002-005-232145-
GREATER PICKENS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
458 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PUMPKINTOWN...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF PICKENS...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3482 8270 3503 8281 3506 8276 3505 8274
      3506 8271 3507 8258 3505 8260 3503 8258
      3501 8260 3501 8254 3498 8254 3491 8251

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
537 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

SCZ007-012-013-232215-
LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
537 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LAURENS...SOUTHERN
SPARTANBURG AND WESTERN UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 536 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ENOREE...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF LAURENS...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ENOREE...
  CROSS KEYS...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3469 8171 3449 8189 3464 8221 3475 8208

KRENTZ

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