Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
432 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POP/TEMP/DWPT GRIDS TO FIT
LATEST TRENDS. OVERALL...NO MAJOR CHANGES. THE BULK OF CONVECTION IS
FIRING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING SE
INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SO THE HIGH POPS ACRS THE
EASTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE NEARLY AS
EXPECTED. SHRA NEAR KCLT MOVING EASTWARD A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS
THE CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE MTNS MOVES OFF INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRES OVER THE ERN CWFA. THE
UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY AND IMMEDIATE TN BORDER AREA HAS THE LEAST
CHC OF ANY CONVECTION...BUT TOO SOON TO SAY THEY WON/T SEE ANY. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
CONFIRMS THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO DCAPE OVER THE AREA. DCAPE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER NC. WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR IN
PLACE...ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR SEEMS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO
DEVELOP IF STORMS CAN TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA GIVEN THE MOIST PW
VALUES IN PLACE.

EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT SHRA
MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS WEAK FORCING CONTINUES WITH A
WEAK FRONT MOVING IN. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AS WELL...UNLESS THE FRONT
MOVES IN FASTER WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS AND WEAK MIXING. LOWS WARM
ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WED. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL LINGER/POOL OVER THE SWRN MTNS AND NC/SC/GA ESCARPMENT IN THE
DEVELOPING ELY FLOW. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE BEST COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE REST OF THE AREA SHUD SEE CU. COULD BE SOME BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS THU MORNING AS MIXING TAPS THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ENCROACHING AIR MASS. HIGHS SHUD BE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY... BY WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE DRIFTED INTO EASTERN CANADA WITH SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORIGA. AIR MASS
GENERALLY WILL BE DRY... BUT EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH WILL ADVECT SOME F MOISTURE WEST INTO THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT THE PRESENT
TIME... AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY AND STABLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM BOTH DAYS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
AND MID 60S WITH SOME 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING FOR A STRONG NORTHERLY JET
TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING SW ACROSS OUR CWA. I WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST OVER THE
PIEDMONT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG CAPPING INVERSIONS DURING
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPING OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS EACH DAY. SO I CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH SHUD BECOME LOW VFR BY 20Z AS THE SHRA
MOVE EAST. TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE IN TAF. TIMING OF ANY
RESTRICTIONS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO KEPT TSRA VFR FOR NOW AND
WILL AMD AS CELLS NEAR AIRFIELD. TSRA END BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME
SHRA POSSIBLE TIL MIDNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE MVFR FOG A GOOD BET...BUT
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE OFF...ESP IF WEAK FRONT MOVES IN A LITTLE
FASTER WITH DRIER NLY FLOW. EXPECT VFR CU WITH NLY TO NELY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE GUSTS WITH MIXING WED MORN.

ELSEWHERE...XCPT FOR KHKY WHERE MVFR SHUD LIFT SHORTLY...VFR WITH
INCREASING CHC OF TSRA THRU THE AFTERNOON. AS AT KCLT...COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE IN TAF. TIMING OF ANY RESTRICTIONS
IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO KEPT TSRA VFR FOR NOW AND WILL AMD AS
CELLS NEAR AIRFIELDS. TSRA END BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME SHRA
POSSIBLE TIL MIDNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE MVFR FOG A GOOD BET MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE OFF...ESP IF WEAK FRONT MOVES
IN A LITTLE FASTER WITH DRIER NLY FLOW. EXPECT VFR CU WITH NLY TO
NELY WINDS AND POSSIBLE GUSTS WITH MIXING WED MORN.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS EACH DAY...WHICH COULD
HAVE SOME AFFECT ON OPERATIONS AT KAVL.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...LGL/WINESETT
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-130915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
513 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NED

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