Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL DRIFT NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST ALONG
THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BERYL WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WHILE A FRONT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF LATE AFTERNOON...CURRENT FCST BASICALLY ON TRACK.  WILL
CONTINUE TO ADJUST AREAS OF HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO UPSTATE SC AND NE
GEORGIA THROUGH SUNSET. A BRIEF SHOWER MAY BREAK OUT AT ANY TIME IN
THOSE AREAS. A MORE COHERENT BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL
MOVE UP FROM THE SE THROUGH SUNSET. TEMP TRENDS LOOK OKAY OUTSIDE
WHERE LARGER CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE COOLED IT OFF.

REMAINDER OF PREV DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACE A GOOD FIX ON
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BERYL REMNANTS ALONG THE FL/GA
BORDER THIS AFTN. SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE HAS FILLED IN ALONG THE
OUTER BANDS WELL N OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY
POPS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS SE OF THE INTERSTATE
85 CORRIDOR...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE SE FRINGE WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 AND LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL WITH VERY LIMITED SHEAR
IN THE PROFILES AND TEMPS ALOFT QUITE WARM. THERE IS A MID LEVEL DRY
PUNCH IN SOME SOUNDINGS...AND BRIEF GUSTINESS WITH ANY TROPICAL
BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH THE BERYL REMNANTS SPINNING WELL S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY FALL FROM THE WEST. ISOLD TO SCT
COVERAGE OF AT LEAST SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY KEEP GOING THROUGH
TONIGHT BETWEEN ANY DECAYING TROPICAL BAND ACTIVITY AND E TO SE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD LOWERING STRATUS IS
LIKELY AGAIN...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINS
WILL BE VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN.

MOISTURE SHEARING NWD FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL FUEL
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS EAST OF THE MTNS...WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
CONVERGENGE IMPROVING THE COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W UNDER FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE BETTER
WESTERLIES DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH THE LATE DAY SHOULD FINALLY START
TO PICK UP THE TROPICAL REMNANTS AND CARRY THEM EASTWARD. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT AS
A PLUME OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ROTATES NWD AHEAD OF THE BERYL
REMANTS...HOWEVER...THE 2+ STANDARD DEVIATION PWAT VALUES SHOULD
PASS WELL EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS TODAY IN THE PIEDMONT...SOME HYDRO PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP
ON TUESDAY AFTN IF MORE BANDS FORM. TEMPS SHOULD BE A CATEGORY
COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...AS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. BERYL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SC COAST TUE NIGHT...AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE EASTERN ZONES. LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...
BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL AREA OF WEAK NVA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE SHORT TERM MODELS NEVERTHELESS FORECAST MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...WITH SOME WEAK QPF RESPONSE LATE IN THE
DAY...ESP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY...THIS IS
DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN
THE TYPICAL HIGH TERRAIN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BY THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PROMOTE WARM FRONTAL ACTIVATION ACROSS THE
REGION...SETTING UP A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AIR MASS. MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS QUITE ROBUST DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED
IN MOST AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH LINGERING TROPICAL CLOUD COVER IN THE EASTERN ZONES MAY
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE STILL APPARENT BETWEEN
THE SLOWER OP 12Z GFS AND THE 00 UTC OP ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO THE
EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF POTENTIALLY ROBUST COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. BUT
AT THIS JUNCTURE...GIVEN THE PROGGED AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN FOR
THE UPCOMING FIRST DAY OF JUNE...EXPECTING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE
MODERATELY FORCED AND UNSTABLE LEADING TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
PROBABLY SOME STRONG TSTMS INTO SOME PORTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL
FCST THE ENCROACHMENT OF A MUCH DRIER BUT STILL SEASONABLY WARM POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST A TOKEN SMALL OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POP ACRS THE MTNS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. WITHIN
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SFC RIDGING...A DRY SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEG F ABOVE CLIMO. UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE PROGGED TO RISE NEXT MONDAY...KEEPING OUR WX DRY BUT ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT OR NEAR THE AIRFIELD. THE BAND OF
TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS LINING UP SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL SHOULD PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST TEMPO THUNDER 19Z TO 21Z. SFC
WINDS HAVE TOGGLED ENE FROM UZA TO EQY...BUT ALL OF THE NEAR TERM
MODEL PROFILES AND LAMP GUIDANCE KEEP KCLT WINDS ESE THROUGH THE
AFTN HOURS. BRIEF EASTERLY CROSS WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EVENING...BECOMING MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE WILL STEADILY EXPAND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY WITH MAINLY LOWER VFR CIGS AND SE SFC WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TSTM COVERAGE IS STEADILY IMPROVING IN THE OUTERMOST
BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BERYL. HAVE
FEATURED VCTS AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES...BUT MAY NEED TEMPO TSRA
CENTERED AROUND 20Z THIS AFTN IF THE BAND HOLDS TOGETHER. EXPECT
MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW...EXCEPT SE AT KAVL...BECOMING MORE SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD THROUGHOUT. VFR CIGS THIS AFTN AND EVENING SHOULD RETURN
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR LIKELY AT KAVL AND POSSIBLE AT THE
UPSTATE SITES. SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN BY
LATE TUE MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND IMPROVING FORCING IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TUE AFTERNOON AND
TUE NIGHT AS THE BERYL REMNANTS PASS BY TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. BRIEF DRYING IS INDICATED
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A RETURN TO INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY THU AND
FRI AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ001>003-291945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-
YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
333 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ004>014-019-291945-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
333 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

SCZ007-012-013-282015-
LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
334 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LAURENS...
SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF WHITMIRE...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
UNION...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SANTUC...
  WOODRUFF...UNION...SEDALIA...ROEBUCK...PAULINE...MOORE...MONARCH
  MILLS...ENOREE...CROSS KEYS...CROSS ANCHOR AND BUFFALO.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3452 8164 3450 8166 3464 8211 3491 8196
      3467 8145 3448 8157

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

GAZ028-SCZ010-011-282230-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-HART-
538 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN HART...NORTHERN
ABBEVILLE AND SOUTHERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JONESVILLE...OR 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF UNION. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SECESSION
  LAKE...BROADWAY LAKE...STARR...IVA...DUE WEST...ANTREVILLE AND
  ABBEVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3428 8276 3429 8277 3429 8279 3432 8288
      3456 8274 3435 8233 3432 8233 3432 8231
      3428 8231 3425 8227 3424 8226 3413 8233

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
553 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

NCZ036-056-057-282245-
CATAWBA-IREDELL-ROWAN-
553 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CATAWBA...SOUTHERN
IREDELL AND SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 549 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHINA GROVE...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SALISBURY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TROUTMAN...
  STATESVILLE...MOUNT ULLA...MOORESVILLE...LANDIS...ENOCHVILLE AND
  CHINA GROVE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3550 8057 3550 8066 3562 8106 3584 8094
      3564 8049

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
558 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

NCZ065-SCZ002-003-006-282245-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
558 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...NORTHERN
GREENVILLE AND SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 554 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARIS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...
OR 9 MILES NORTH OF DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO JONES GAP
  STATE PARK...CHERRYDALE POINT...LAKE ROBINSON...FURMAN
  UNIVERSITY...TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...TRAVELERS REST...TIGERVILLE...
  TAYLORS...PARIS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...MARIETTA...CLEVELAND AND
  CAESARS HEAD.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3494 8252 3497 8253 3496 8256 3505 8272
      3513 8264 3512 8263 3514 8261 3514 8258
      3518 8259 3524 8254 3500 8222 3498 8222
      3485 8235

07