Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
807 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY
RETURN AGAIN AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 745 PM...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
SC PIEDMONT...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY OF CONVECTION HAS EXHIBITED A
DEFINITE DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. CELLS
HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO REDEVELOP UPSTREAM...AS THERE IS A NARROW
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPSTATE WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTION FREE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS PROVIDING THE BOUNDARY WITH
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE INFLOW FOR NEW CELL GROWTH. THEREFORE...POPS
WILL TAPER OFF RELATIVELY SLOWLY THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE OTHER
AREA TO WATCH IS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...PARTICULARLY WITH
EASTWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER THAT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR
GEORGIA COUNTIES. WITH THE EXPANSIVE COLD POOL AIR OVER THE WESTERN
UPSTATE AND OUR NORTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...BUT WILL NEED TO INCLUDE
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA.

OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH A RATHER MOIST NE FLOW DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. HENCE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO BE THE
RULE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM DOES NOT GENERATE ANY QPF LATE
TONIGHT SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES.

ON SATURDAY...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE NAM WHICH INDICATES THE DAY
WILL BEGIN WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE WEDGE. HOWEVER...THE MODEL
TRIES TO WASH OUT THE WEDGE BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS NO
MODEL RESPONSE...SO HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. ALSO...STAYED ON THE LOW
SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPS WITH HIGHEST TEMPS STRATIFIED FROM SW TO
NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THRU
FAIRLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW SAT NIGHT-SUN. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE N OF
THE CWA SO TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVG. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT
EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING AND FORCING ACROSS THE N TIER...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE U.S.
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH FARTHER S SUN AFTN AND DRIVE THE E EXTENT OF THE
FRONT DOWN INTO CNTRL NC...SO BUMPED POPS UP OVER THE NE ZONES FOR
LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT-MON WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA. COOLER
NE FLOW DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE MTNS IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A WEAK
COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO MON AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...BLO AVG
OVER THE NE ZONES...NEAR AVG CNTRL CWA...AND ABOVE AVG TO THE SW.
LOW LVL E FLOW WILL INCREASE AND PUSH AT LEAST SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TOWARD THE MTNS SO HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THRU MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO SLOWLY BUILD TUE-THU
BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVG THRU THE UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP HEIGHTS
FLUCTUATING OVER THE REGION WITH LITTLE NET LOSS OR GAIN DAY TO DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS IN WARM...
MOIST S FLOW WHICH MEANS ABOVE AVG TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION EACH DAY.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES E FRI AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W.
EXPECT SLIGHT CHC POPS...PSBL CHC MTNS...FRI AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL...A STRAY SHOWER MAY COME RELATIVELY CLOSE TO KCLT
THIS EVENING...BUT THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD...NO VCSH/VCTS WILL BE CARRIED. (KAVL/KHKY ARE
WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THOSE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING NE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE
LATER TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE
LIFTING OVER THIS COOL/DRY RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFTER
12Z. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT SATURDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR A CHANGE.

ELSEWHERE...TS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM KGSP/KGMU...AND VCTS
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ONLY THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS (AT MOST).
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
GEORGIA MAY REACH KAND BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS THE RAIN COOLED AIR THAT
CURRENTLY EXISTS AROUND KAND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY FOR A
POSSIBLE TEMPO. OTHERWISE...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AT
KAND...WHILE DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERING INTO THE AREA SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KGSP/KGMU. STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR AT SOME LOCATIONS
BY AROUND 12Z. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL SAT
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY...ENHANCING SHOWER/TS CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER/PM
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JDL/LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
856 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-501>510-
SCZ001>005-290100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
856 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-NCZ082-SCZ006>010-290100-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-UNION NC-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-
856 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA. THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ029-SCZ011>014-019-290100-
ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
856 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

SCZ003-006-272330-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
650 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREENVILLE COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 644 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF TIGERVILLE...OR 12 MILES NORTH
OF DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE ROBINSON...
  TAYLORS...
  GREER...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3487 8239 3505 8250 3507 8237 3500 8222
      3486 8223

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
751 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ011-280030-
ABBEVILLE-ELBERT-FRANKLIN-HART-
751 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ELBERT...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...
SOUTHERN HART AND SOUTHWESTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM
EDT...

AT 749 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF
APPLE VALLEY TO PAOLI...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ELBERTON...
  CARNESVILLE...
  BOWMAN...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3403 8295 3417 8311 3423 8308 3426 8313
      3423 8317 3426 8331 3422 8335 3426 8334
      3432 8340 3436 8340 3440 8290 3424 8274
      3421 8274 3422 8272 3405 8255 3402 8258

JOH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
818 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW TRAVELERS REST    34.94N 82.51W
04/27/2012                   GREENVILLE         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ALONG OLD HUNTS BRIDGE ROAD AT FAITH DR.

&&

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
834 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

NCZ082-280115-
UNION-
834 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH
915 PM EDT...

AT 832 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF WAXHAW...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF
LANCASTER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MINERAL SPRINGS...
  STURDIVANTS...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3482 8031 3481 8032 3481 8079 3482 8080
      3485 8080 3494 8079 3499 8084 3501 8084
      3492 8030

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
843 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ010>012-019-280145-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-ELBERT-FRANKLIN-GREENWOOD-HART-LAURENS-
843 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ABBEVILLE...ELBERT...GREENWOOD...
SOUTHERN ANDERSON...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN HART AND SOUTHERN
LAURENS COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 839 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARCADE TO 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HODGES...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RUCKERSVILLE...
  LAKE RUSSELL...
  ABBEVILLE...
  ELBERTON...
  LAKE GREENWOOD...
  CROSS HILL...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3401 8224 3397 8231 3406 8234 3407 8248
      3401 8259 3396 8256 3398 8266 3398 8287
      3417 8311 3423 8308 3426 8313 3423 8317
      3426 8331 3422 8335 3436 8339 3443 8174
      3430 8189 3420 8194 3413 8187 3395 8202

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
913 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

NCZ082-280200-
UNION-
913 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL UNION COUNTY THROUGH
1000 PM EDT...

AT 911 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MONROE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONROE...
  UNIONVILLE...
  WINGATE...
  MARSHVILLE...

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3503 8029 3492 8030 3487 8063 3505 8068
      3516 8028 3510 8028

JOH