Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THEN THE HIGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM...ELEVATED CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING ALONG A LINGERING
BOUNDARY. ONE CLUSTER ENTERING THE CENTRAL NC MTNS...AND ANOTHER
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. THERE IS ENUF INSTBY FOR
STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...BUT WIND THREAT PROBABLY SUBDUED DUE
TO THE COOL BL.

MEANWHILE...ATMOS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACRS KY/TN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW QUICKLY WE CAN
DEVELOP SBCAPE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE BNDRY THIS
AFTN. I HAVE POPS GRADUALLY RAMPING UP FROM WEST TO EAST...PEAKING
EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WITH
MUCAPES 2000-3000+ J/KG ACRS KY/TN. AND THE RUC PROGS THIS
ENVIRONMENT TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW THE
BL WILL EVOLVE. THE LATEST FCST SNDGS SHOW SLOW EROSION OF COLD POOL
AND 100+ J/KG OF SBCIN. THE NEW DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS THE
MTNS AND UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY IN A SLIGHT...BUT NOT TO THE EAST.
HIGH RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH ORGANIZATION WITH THIS
AFTN/EVENINGS CONVECTION. SO HAIL MAY REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT...WITH
SOME WIND THREAT IN THE MTNS.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT UNDER THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.

FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE THEIR TREND OF A MORE SOUTHERN PUSH OF THE
COLD FRONT. THEY ALSO AGREE ON DECENT INSTBY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
BNDRY AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTN.
TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE NE GA AND UPSTATE
ZONES. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT 5% FOR THOSE AREAS. SHEAR
WILL BE WEAKER...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THRU QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH FCST SNDGS SHOWING LESS CIN THAN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SAT NIGHT
BEFORE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA SUN. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH N AS A WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT-EARLY SAT WITH BEST FORCING N OF
THE CWA. WE KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE MTNS AND N ZONES
THRU SAT. AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE WITH SE
SFC FLOW SETTING UP. UPSLOPE FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS THRU THE DAY SUN...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. EXPECT
TEMPS ABOVE AVG SAT AND SUN WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NE
DURING THE DAY SUN TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVG IN THE FAR NE CWA IN THE
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM THURSDAY...HEIGHTS RISE SUN NIGHT-MON AS UPPER TROF
MOVES OFF THE NE COAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SE US. COLD
AIR DAMMING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SUN NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
MON. STILL EXPECT ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WEDGE WEAKENS TUE AND SFC BOUNDARY MOVES N OF
THE AREA AND STAYS N THRU THE PERIOD. THIS PUTS CWA BACK IN THE WARM
SECTOR SO WITH MOIST S FLOW DEVELOPING WE HELD ON TO MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC OF MAINLY AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS TUE-WED DEVELOPING MOIST
SLY FLOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVG MON...THEN
BACK ABOVE AVG TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE A SMALL LINE OF
CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. NOT EXPECTING A DIRECT
IMPACT ATTM...BUT THE SUBTLE BNDRY THIS ACTIVITY IS FIRING ALONG IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING NWD. SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST MAY
AFFECT KCLT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTN
AFTN. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AS A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
THIS TIME...BUT MOST LIKELY TIME OF IMPACT SHUD BE IN THE 00Z TO 06Z
TIME FRAME. WINDS WIL SHIFT NW BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN NE FRIDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN LIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION SHUD BE VFR.

ELSEWHERE...A CLUSTER OF STORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL NC MTNS
ATTM...AND WILL BE VCTS AT KAVL FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTION
MAY START TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...SO VCTS WILL BE CARRIED. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU THE EVENING...AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONVECTION SHUD WANE
AFTER 06Z AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT. DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS SHUD BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER INVOF THE FORECAST AREA THRU
FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY PM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY...BUT THEN DROPS BACK IN SUNDAY. SO PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1149 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-271600-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
1149 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OR
LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST
REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-271600-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1149 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

NCZ052-262015-
HAYWOOD-
340 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF COSBY...OR 15 MILES EAST OF
GATLINBURG...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
  THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
  INDICATED COUNTY.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3570 8299 3559 8315 3561 8318 3564 8318
      3564 8320 3567 8318 3570 8322 3569 8326
      3571 8326 3573 8324 3573 8321 3575 8318

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
356 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     HAIL             WAXHAW                  34.92N 80.74W
04/26/2012  E1.00 INCH       UNION              NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WAXHAW VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENT HAD HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
            OF A QUARTER.

0332 PM     HAIL             2 NW FLETCHER           35.45N 82.53W
04/26/2012  E0.88 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL WITH THE LARGEST BEING NICKEL SIZED. SOME WIND BUT
            NOT BAD.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
402 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             FLAT ROCK               35.27N 82.44W
04/26/2012  E1.00 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAM RADIO REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT LITTLE RIVER
            ROAD AND HIGHWAY 25 SOUTH.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HAIL             TALLULAH FALLS          34.72N 83.38W
04/26/2012  E1.00 INCH       RABUN              GA   POST OFFICE

            TALLULAH FALLS POST OFFICE REPORTED NICKEL TO QUARTER
            SIZED HAIL.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

NCZ052-053-262030-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-
406 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HAYWOOD AND
SOUTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COVE CREEK...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO I-26 AT
  I-40...LAKE JUNALUSKA...CRUSO...COVE CREEK...CLYDE...CANTON AND
  CANDLER.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3556 8256 3545 8268 3545 8271 3542 8275
      3541 8274 3539 8278 3560 8311 3568 8292

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
417 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

NCZ051-262100-
SWAIN-
417 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SWAIN COUNTY THROUGH 500
PM EDT...

AT 415 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CADES COVE...OR 16 MILES
NORTH OF ROBBINSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BRYSON CITY...

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3553 8383 3557 8375 3558 8364 3552 8327
      3547 8333 3546 8336 3545 8335 3537 8345
      3543 8359 3544 8359 3543 8360

MCAVOY