Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
429 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AS A FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA
BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DEPART...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT WILL PASS NEAR THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...MOST CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE NC AND NE GA
MTNS. A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SAV RIVER...AND CELLS MAY
FILL IN EARLY ACROSS NE GA AND THE WRN UPSTATE WHERE INSTABILITY IS
HIGHEST. CONVECTION SHUD THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE ERN
UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. HAVE MODIFIED POPS TO SHOW THIS
TREND. ADJUSTED REST OF THE FIELDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AS WELL.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KTS OVER THE MTNS AND WRN UPSTATE...
WHERE HIGHEST CAPES ARE AS WELL. EXPECT BEST CHC FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
SVR STORMS TO BE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

AS OF 200 PM...AS EXPECTED...THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACRS ROUGHLY
THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN...WITH CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPING. THE
HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON CONVECTION FIRING ALONG
THE HIGH TERRAIN (WHICH STARTED IN THE LAST HOUR)...THEN NEW
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE FRONT AND ALSO ALONG OUTFLOW OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE LATER THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. STILL A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT MAINLY ACRS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA WHERE INSTBY IS GREATEST.
FREEZING LEVELS WERE OBSERVED AROUND 12 KFT ON 12Z SNDGS WITH VERY
DRY MID-UPR LEVELS. SO FIRST GUESS CORE HEIGHTS OF 22.5 TO 23 KFT
FOR 55DBZ SEEMS GOOD FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE BARELY 30 KTS...SO LIMITED
ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL. WITH THAT SAID...SLIGHT RISK AREA STILL
LOOKS GOOD.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN AREA OF STRONG QG FORCING AND JET
DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWFA FROM THE WEST...MAXING OUT
AROUND 12Z WED. A LLVL WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP INVOF CENTRAL GULF
STATES...INCREASING A SELY LLVL FLOW ATOP A STRENGTHENING COLD AIR
DAMMING (CAD) WEDGE. THINGS LOOK LINED UP WELL FOR CATEGORICAL POPS
AND DECENT QPF LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TAKING A BLEND
OF MODEL QPF AND HPC RESULTS IN GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5" OF RAIN THRU
WEDNESDAY AFTN. RAIN SHUD REALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD END OF
AFTN AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE TRICKY WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND CAD. I TRIED BLENDING STRAIGHT NAM WITH BC MOS
GRIDS...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO WARM ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. TEMPS
DROP INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT AND ONLY RISE 5-8 DEGREES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 130 PM TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT FLOW WILL
BE SHIFTING EAST ACRS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT STEADILY DWINDLING
SHOWER CHANCES. CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN CONSIDERABLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LINGERING SFC WEDGE BUT MODEL TIMEHEIGHTS DEPICT ENUF
MIXING TO ALLOW SUNSHINE TO RETURN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MID-APRIL CLIMO IN THE AFTERNOON. BROADENING
RETURN FLOW AND THE ONSET ON GULF TAP IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO BE 6-8 DEG F ABOVE CLIMO. LACK OF
INHIBITION AND DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PROMOTE
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 1105 AM TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WX
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FEATURING PROGRESSIVE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ATOP
THE SE CONUS AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYERED FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF
L/WV TROUGH AXIS AND GULF COAST CLOSED UPPER LOW. ATTENDANT SFC BNDRY
WILL ALSO BE SAGGING SE INTO THE CWFA. IN CONCERT WITH MODERATE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF...DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE NUMEROUS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
FALL.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ABSORB CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE MEAN
FLOW BY MONDAY AND PATTERN PROGRESSION SHOULD TRANSLATE SFC FRONT TO
THE COAST. IF THE 17/00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF IS IN THE BALLPARK...A
PERIOD OF BLUSTERY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH WRAP-AROUND SHOWER
CHANCES SHOULD EXIST ON MONDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW QUICKLY
EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH LIFTS OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
AT THIS POINT...AN EFFECTIVELY DRY FCST AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...STILL EXPECTING SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA
THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...STARTING IN THE NC
MTNS AND THEN NEAR A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY WHICH IS INVOF THE
TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENUF TO KEEP A VCTS MENTION FOR THE 23Z
TO 02Z TIME FRAME. STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE EARLIER AND LINGER
LATER...BUT THIS IS WINDOW OF HIGHEST PROB ATTM. WINDS MAY BE
VARIABLE THRU EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
AND OUTFLOWS FROM NEARBY CONVECTION. LATER THIS EVENING THRU MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH...ALLOWING A NE WIND TO
PREDOMINATE AND TS CHCS DECREASE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD RA/SHRA TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY TO POSSIBLY IFR BY
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHRA AND TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NC MTNS
ALREADY...WITH ONE CELL JUST WEST OF THE KAVL. COVERAGE SHUD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA THRU THE AFTN AND LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE VCTS MENTION AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KHKY
FOR THE TIME PERIODS OF HIGHEST PROB OF TS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...TURNING WINDS TO NE AND DECREASING TS
CHC...BUT WIDESPREAD RA/SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBY TO LIKELY IFR AT ALL SITES BY END OF TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY
INTO WED...WITH A LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY CREATING IFR
RESTRICTIONS WED NIGHT BEFORE DRYING BEGINS IN EARNEST THU. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION AND
RESTRICTIONS BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
322 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-181930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
322 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
421 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

NCZ033-501-503-172045-
AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
421 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BURKE...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM
EDT...

AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF EDGEMONT...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF NEWLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GLOBE...

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN BURKE...NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN
AVERY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATION...

GLOBE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3611 8153 3610 8150 3609 8148 3586 8180
      3592 8192 3593 8193 3594 8193 3612 8178
      3613 8155

NED

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