Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

March 31, 2012Cabarrus County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this special weather statement at Mar 31, 2012, 7:22 PM EDT for Cabarrus County, North Carolina. It was in force for 23 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 31, 2012, 7:22 PM EDT (23:22 UTC)
Expired: Mar 31, 2012, 7:45 PM EDT
In force: 23 min
Issued by: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

County Cabarrus County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 163 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 99 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 66 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -19 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 604 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 23 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Mar 31, 5:49 PM EDT, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 5:49 PM EDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
549 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN MOVE IN AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER NORTHERN GULF WEATHER DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE PICTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...PLENTY OF INSTBY ACRS THE CWFA...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ATTM. WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
OVER 1000 J/KG ACRS THE PIEDMONT...A FEW SVR STORMS POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. UPDATED THE POPS TO RELFECT RADAR TRENDS.
OVERALL...HIGH-RES MODELS SEEM TO FAVOR THE UPSTATE FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION TILL ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WHILE ISOLD CONVECTION WANES ACRS
THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE.

AT 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FORM
THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FRONT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF TI WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN IN A NW FLOW WITH
DRYING BELOW 850 MB IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING SYSTEM. NAM CAPE
EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND UP TO
1000 J/KG APPEARS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT. ENOUGH VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR IS PRESENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND.

THE FRONT EXITS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG
BY DAYBREAK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT NO MORE THAN PATCHY DENSE
FOG IS SUPPORTED AT THIS TIME. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES AWAY FROM
OUR AREA...LEADING TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DEPARTING
TROUGH...AN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOWS SOME BRIEF MOISTURE AT 850 MB
WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE MAV CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THE
NAM ONLY SINGLE DIGITS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL BE NEAR MID MAY
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH NW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A TROUGH AND EASTERN PORTION OF A MISS VALLEY
RIDGE.  MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING SE FROM GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
AND OFF THE JERSEY COAST EARLY MONDAY.  DISSIPATING ENERGY WILL
LEAVE SOME CLOUDINESS OVER NC MOUNTAINS MONDAY.  THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR CLT AND GSP IF THE
FORECAST HOLDS.  MOUNTAIN HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
THE RECORD AT AVL OF 87 DEGREES...BUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WOULD
BREAK THE RECORD OF 84 AT GSP AND THE 86 RECORD AT CLT.

THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE CENTERED OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT NO
LONGER A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD
CERTAINLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORDS OF 87 AT GSP AND 90 AT
CLT.  CLOUDINESS WILL BE INCREASING ON TUESDAY AS WE WILL HAVE A
FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A FRONT MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GULF STATES AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.  GFS HAS
CAPES IN THE 1500 TO 1600 RANGE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE GA
AND UPSTATE AND NOSING INTO THE SHELBY AND GASTON AREA OF NC.
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER ON THE PROGRESS OF THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS OPPOSED TO
FRIDAY WHEN THOSE WERE EXTREMELY DIFFERENT BY DAY 7.  AT 00Z
WED...BOTH HAVE THE LOW GENERALLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THE GFS
HAS IT MOVING FARTHER NORTH AND OPENING IT UP BY 00Z FRIDAY AS THE
WAVE MOVES SE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM KENTUCKY.  THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A CUT OFF LOW FROM OKLAHOMA TO REACH SAVANNAH GA AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THERE ARE VARIOUS SMALL SCALE FEATURES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN FEATURE WHICH AFFECTS OUR WEATHER IN MID TO
LATE WEEK.  HPC WENT CLOSER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AND THAT ONE HAS
MORE OF A DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH CENTERED EASTERN GREAT LAKES / PA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE ECMWF HAS THE CUT OFF LOW BECOMING
ALMOST STATIONARY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NEAR SAVANNAH.  THIS
BEING DISCOUNTED...WE SHOULD HAVE DRYING CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEKEND...UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM REACHES OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
THAT NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS DELAYED UNTIL SOMETIME THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
GOING WITH BEST CONVECTION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHEAR
VALUES LESS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK
AND CLOSE TO NORMAL BY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRYING IN A
WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITHOUT
RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION MORE THAN CB. GUIDANCE LIKES VERY LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS AND FOG
AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS AMOUNT IS EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR A CIG. IFR VSBY IN FOG LOOKS MORE PROBABLE. VFR
RETURNS BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.WINDS VEER FROM WNW TODAY...TO NE LATE
TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE TOO SCATTERED TO MENTION
ANYTHING MORE THAN CB.WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NW TONIGHT AND NE
ON ENE SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
VERY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH MVFR VSBY...
EXCEPT LIFR AT KHKY. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH
FOR CIGS HOWEVER. VFR RETURNS BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHRA AND TSTMS INTO THE REGION TUE AND WED. IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...DEO
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 6:02 AM EDT, 13 hours 20 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
602 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
613 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL             5 S CAESARS HEAD        35.03N 82.63W
03/31/2012  M1.00 INCH       PICKENS            SC   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CSH

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:26 PM EDT, 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
626 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             5 WNW GREENVILLE        34.88N 82.45W
03/31/2012  M1.25 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            PITTMAN CIRCLE...NW SIDE OF GREENVILLE.

&&

CSH

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:28 PM EDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
628 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HAIL             4 WSW GREENVILLE        34.83N 82.43W
03/31/2012  E0.75 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            WASHINGTON AVE

&&

CSH

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:31 PM EDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     HAIL             4 SSE GREER             34.89N 82.20W
03/31/2012  E0.75 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MARBLE TO DIME SIZED HAIL FELL AT THE GREENVILLE
            SPARTANBURG AIRPORT FOR ABOUT 3 MINUTES.

0602 PM     HAIL             5 S TRAVELERS REST      34.90N 82.45W
03/31/2012  E0.75 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL FELL ABOUT 1 MILE SOUTH OF THE
            FURMAN UNIVERSITY WEST GATE. HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

0605 PM     HAIL             5 NW GREENVILLE         34.89N 82.43W
03/31/2012  E1.00 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER AT INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY 183 AND HIGHWAY 25 WHITE HORSE ROAD.

0607 PM     HAIL             3 N GREENVILLE          34.88N 82.37W
03/31/2012  E1.00 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER NEAR CHEERYDALE
            POINT.

&&

OUTLAW

Special weather statement, Mar 31, 6:41 PM EDT, 41 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
641 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ001-004-312330-
FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-HART-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-STEPHENS-
641 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN STEPHENS...HART...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

AT 639 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF WESTMINSTER...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WALHALLA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE HARTWELL...
  MARTIN...
  WHITWORTH...
  LAVONIA...
  LAVONIA...
  REED CREEK...

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3470 8329 3477 8309 3453 8294 3448 8299
      3448 8291 3431 8280 3423 8304 3422 8308

RB

Special weather statement, Mar 31, 7:22 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
722 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

NCZ057-072-312345-
CABARRUS-ROWAN-
722 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CABARRUS AND SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 719 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KANNAPOLIS...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF CONCORD...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CONCORD...
  MOUNT PLEASANT...

LAT...LON 3533 8041 3530 8042 3520 8053 3521 8056
      3523 8059 3550 8077 3560 8059 3537 8037

RB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 30, 8:13 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Cabarrus	32 min
Mar 31, 1:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Davie	41 min
Mar 31, 5:18 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Henderson	27 min
Mar 31, 4:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Greenville	34 min
Mar 31, 4:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Greenville, Laurens, Pickens, Spartanburg	61 min
Mar 31, 5:33 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Pickens	27 min
Mar 31, 5:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Greenville, Laurens, Pickens, Spartanburg	60 min
Mar 31, 5:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Anderson, Greenville, Oconee, Pickens	26 min
Mar 31, 6:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Anderson, Greenville, Pickens	59 min
Mar 31, 6:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Abbeville, Anderson, Greenville, Greenwood, Laurens	65 min
Mar 31, 7:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Anderson, Greenville	29 min
Mar 31, 7:03 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GSP	Greenville	117 min
Mar 31, 7:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Abbeville, Anderson, Greenville, Greenwood, Laurens	63 min
Mar 31, 7:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Cherokee	25 min
Mar 31, 6:41 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Hart	49 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.