Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
915 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ON SUNDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LAY OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION TAPERING OFF FROM THE SW SO LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY THRU
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE COVERAGE RAMPS BACK UP FOR THIS AFTN. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMP/DP AND RH FOR THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
STEADILY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
FORCING FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS EVENING... AS PERIODIC VORT LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND
PATCHES OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE OVERHEAD. IN PARTICULAR...THE
MODELS FOCUS ON A VORT CENTER THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THINK THE GFS IS DEFICIENT IN SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS FORCED BY THIS WAVE...AND MUCH PREFER THE NAM
DEPICTION. OF NOTE IS A MID LEVEL JETLET THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AT 700MB THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CAUSE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR TO ORGANIZE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON JUST EAST OF THE
MTNS...WITH STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT MOVES OVER
THE PIEDMONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PRODUCES NUMEROUS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. I WILL NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO EITHER...
BECAUSE WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH BOUYANCY AND SHEAR FOR A FEW MINI
SUPERCELLS. THINK THE NEW DAY1 OUTLOOK IS RIGHT ON THE MONEY AND
WOULD EXPECT A WATCH OVER THE PIEDMONT SOME TIME LATER TODAY. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING AND PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN...BUT NOT COMPLETELY GO AWAY OVERNIGHT WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN. TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...THE SHORT TERM PICKS UP AT 12Z ON SUNDAY
WITH THE CLOSED H5 LOW CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND UPPER RIDGING
READY TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE. THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES
OFF THE EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES ABSORBED BY A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE UPPER TROF. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT 12Z ON TUES...THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE JUST TO OUR WEST WITH NWLY H5 FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR SE. MOIST WRAP AROUND
NWLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWFA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THRU MOST OF MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF FROM THE SW TO THE NE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LINGERING OVER
THE NC MTS FROM THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. BY 00Z MONDAY...ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS WITH SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE LINGERING OVER THE MTS FOR
ANOTHER 6 TO 12 HRS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
1000-500MB MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA THRU MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE IT
FINALLY DRIES THINGS UP. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS DRY FASTER...SO
AGAIN I HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THE NAM SOLUTION. IN TERMS OF SVR WX
POTENTIAL...SPC HAS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK...IE
5% AREA...FOR SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...YET THIS IS PROBABLY TOO
OPTIMISTIC BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL PROFILES. BY 18Z SUN...OUR CWFA
SHOULD BE UNDER PREDOMINATELY NEGATIVE VORT ADVECTION WITH THE H5
LOW SLIDING TO OUR EAST. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY WEAK AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY AND UNFAVORABLE LOW LVL SHEAR PROFILES...SHOULD KEEP OUR
ACTIVITY TO MOSTLY SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW TS.

TEMPS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND WILL REMAIN
ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EVEN WITH THE COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
PUSHING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE LATEST EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PUSHING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
INDICATE THAT THE LOWER PIEDMONT AREA WILL STAY MOSTLY DRY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WEAKENS AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY.
HOWEVER..DECENT LLVL NW FLOW LIFTING ALONG WITH WEAK DIURNAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS MAY SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
HENCE...I MENTIONED 20-30 POPS THERE WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIGS NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AIRFIELD BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD
REDEVELOP AT ANY TIME IN THE BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. WIND WILL REMAIN S TO SW.
CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP BY MIDDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OR WRN UPSTATE OF SC
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST...PERHAPS AS A SQUALL LINE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.  BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS ARE NOT
INDICATED IN THE TAF BECAUSE TIMING CANNOT BE SPECIFIED RIGHT NOW.
ONCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN THE EARLY
EVENING...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...AFTER A LATE MORNING LULL...MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTIVE STORMS GENERALLY BY 16-18Z.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW CENTER MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS
SUN MRNG AND WITH HEAVIER SHWRS AND TSTMS. DRYING IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...PM/RB
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM/RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
455 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-250900-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
455 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THAT
COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
ORGANIZE THE THUNDERSTORMS INTO A SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT SUCH THAT AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-250900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
455 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE WILL BE BETTER
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MOORE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1102 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

NCZ504-506-508-241545-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
1102 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTHERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM
EDT...

AT 1059 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DYSARTSVILLE TO 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DYSARTSVILLE...
  MORGANTON...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3557 8163 3556 8165 3558 8169 3548 8170
      3537 8208 3558 8203 3578 8164

JOH