Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR REGION TODAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE EAST OF
OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM...THE SFC WARM FRONT WAS RUNNING JUST NORTH OF KAND
EAST ACROSS LAURENS CO AND INTO NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT SFC DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE L60S WITH SITE ALONG THE I-40
FOOTHILLS CORRIDOR IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LATEST CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND TRACKING STEADILY
NORTHEAST. AT 905 AM...FREEZING LEVEL OVER TCLT WAS 10.6 KFT WITH
THE -20C LEVEL AT 20.8 KFT...YIELDING A CORE HEIGHT FOR SVR HAIL
PRODUCING STORMS AROUND 22 KFT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GAIN
NORTHERN GROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...SERVING AS A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND POSSIBLY EARLY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA MID DAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE HIGH SHEAR MODERATE INSTABILITY
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A BAND OF TSRA
ACROSS EAST TN AND NRN GA. THIS BAND WILL SWEEP EAST ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...REACHING THE NC BORDER COUNTIES MID TO LATE
EVENING. THIS LINE MAY REACH THE NC LINE PRODUCING SEVERE TSTM WINDS
AND HAIL. THE BAND MAY TREND WEAKER EAST OF THE TN BORDER COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A STRONG TO SEVERE BAND
ACROSS THE NE GA COUNTIES AND SC UPSTATE COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 655 AM...MAINLY TWEAKED POP GRIDS TO LINE UP WITH RADAR
TRENDS. A WARM FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHUD PUSH THRU THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...MAINLY JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTN. THE TEMP/SKY
TRENDS WERE LEFT FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR NOW.

AS OF 315 AM...A DEEP SFC LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL OK...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACRS THE TN VLY THRU THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
CWFA. A MARKED CONTRAST OF AIR MASSES ALONG THE BNDRY...ESPECIALLY
WRT DEWPTS. DEWPTS RUNNING IN THE 30S N OF THE FRONT AND LWR 60S S
OF IT. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS ABOUT A 1000 J/KG OF CAPE S
OF THE FRONT...AND THIS IS PLENTY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE. A BROKEN
LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE SW ACRS THE CWFA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS ACTUALLY PLENTY OF SHEAR
(EFFECTED LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS). SO SOME STORM ROTATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS...AND AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT
(MAINLY HAIL) EXISTS.

LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN...THE FCST QUICKLY BECOMES
CHALLENGING...AS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING MORE WEDGY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE...WITH PERSISTENT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295-300 K
SFCS KEEPING FAIRLY HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. SFC HIGH PRES
OFF THE EAST COAST IS QUITE WEAK (1020 MB)...BUT MAY BE ENUF TO HOLD
AN IN SITU WEDGE. WITH THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO
BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS BY LATE AFTN. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE 00Z NAM TEMPS/DEWPTS FOR HOURLY GRIDS...KEEPS THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND BLUE RIDGE IN WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING THRU THE AFTN...WITH FAIRLY
WARM CONDITION SOUTH AND EAST OF I-85.

TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE OH/TN VLYS. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED
TO REACH THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SAT. THE ENVIRONMENT UPSTREAM WILL
BE CONDUCIVE TO A SVR WX OUTBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
CONVECTION TRACKING INTO THE CWFA THIS EVENING...AND ACRS THE
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT.  INSTBY WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND POSSIBLY SOME RESIDUAL STRATUS/WEDGE INVOF THE BLUE
RIDGE. STILL...THERE WILL BE STRONG FORCING WITH THE FRONT COUPLED
WITH UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. CATEGORICAL POPS/THUNDER STILL LOOKS
GOOD. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS...AS WELL AS THE BUFKIT
CONRAD...INDICATE THE MAIN MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE SUPERCELLS.
THE SVR WX THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. TEMPS
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE H5
SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE W SAT WITH THE ASSOC SFC COLD
FRONT MOVG THRU IN THE MRNG. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TRACKS SE OF
THE AREA DURG THE AFTN. TEMPS START OFF WELL ABOVE AVG AT 12Z BUT
FALLING THKNS AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
WARMING VERY MUCH DURG THE DAY AND THEY WILL LIKELY START TO DROP
OFF BY MID AFTN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT BUT PATCHY MOISTURE
IN NW FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE MTNS FROM THE NW SUN MRNG WITH
BETTER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN WILL BE AROUND AVG BUT COOL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. RAIN SHWRS WILL MIX WITH AND TURN TO SNOW AND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR ACCUMS WILL BE OVER THE NC MTNS ALONG
THE TN BORDER OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF OCNL LGT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OUT INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS. RIGHT NOW MOISTURE LOOKS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR PSBL ADVSRY
SNOWFALL...ESP AT HIGHER ELEVS ALONG THE TN BORDER SUN NIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEG BELOW AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA EARLY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WIND.  BY TUESDAY
EVENING...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE ROUGHLY OVER THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC. THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY IS NOT AS MOISTURE LADEN AS PREVIOUS RUNS...SO
JUST SOME CLOUDINESS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK.  THE PART OF
THE FORECAST FROM 00Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY IS MORE OF A CONTRAST
AT LEAST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. HPC IS GOING WITH THE GFS IN
MAINTAINING THE HIGH LONGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND TAKES A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT SPREADING A LONG SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST...ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY.  AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
ARE CONCERNED...COOLER THAN NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK AND NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK.

THE NEW ECMWF JUST CAME IN AND IT ABOUT A MID POINT COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE OLD ECMWF AND THE CURRENT GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. HAVE A TEMPO FOR FIRST HOUR OF TAF. BEHIND THE
LINE...MORE MOIST AIR WILL BRING CHC OF RESTRICTIONS. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL GET AND FOR HOW LONG. TOOK A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA AND CB MENTION WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...SOME IFR STRATUS IS AFFECTING THE UPSTATE TERMINALS AND
MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP INTO A
CU DECK. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OR REMAIN VFR THIS AFTN
AHEAD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA/SHRA APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH
SHRA AND CB MENTION WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.  WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT THRU MID MORNING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
SW...WITH SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDS ERODE
AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE CONVECTION
ARRIVES.

OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TS AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
SAT NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-031030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
516 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED
OF THE COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
802 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

NCZ071-082-SCZ009-021345-
MECKLENBURG-UNION-YORK-
802 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN YORK...NORTHERN UNION
AND SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM EST...

AT 754 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCK HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PINEVILLE...
  STALLINGS...
  CHARLOTTE...
  MINT HILL...
  MONROE...
  UNIONVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND SMALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINE TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING.

LAT...LON 3502 8030 3493 8078 3505 8089 3501 8090
      3495 8086 3492 8086 3489 8101 3490 8103
      3505 8109 3506 8107 3521 8058 3517 8046
      3519 8030

LGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
852 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

NCZ068-070-071-SCZ008-009-021430-
CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-YORK-
852 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHEROKEE...GASTON...NORTHWESTERN
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND AND WESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTIES
THROUGH 930 AM EST...

AT 847 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF BLACKSBURG...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
GAFFNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KINGS MOUNTAIN...
  CLOVER...
  BESSEMER CITY...
  GASTONIA...
  LOWELL...
  BELMONT...

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTING WITH PEA SIZE HAIL ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3494 8164 3506 8173 3541 8117 3541 8112
      3513 8093

JOH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1003 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

NCZ036-056-068>070-504-508-021545-
CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-GASTON-GREATER BURKE-GREATER
RUTHERFORD-IREDELL-LINCOLN-
1003 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CATAWBA...LINCOLN...NORTHERN
CLEVELAND...NORTHERN RUTHERFORD...NORTHWESTERN GASTON...SOUTHEASTERN
BURKE AND SOUTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 AM EST...

AT 1002 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THERMAL CITY TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF LAWNDALE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  POLKVILLE...
  CHERRYVILLE...
  VALE...
  IRON STATION...
  MAIDEN...
  DENVER...

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WITH PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3531 8153 3549 8212 3553 8198 3554 8185
      3558 8182 3577 8123 3562 8075 3557 8074
      3555 8075

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1049 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-021630-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-DAVIE-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-IREDELL-ROWAN-
1049 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER...CATAWBA...DAVIE...
EASTERN BURKE...IREDELL...NORTHWESTERN ROWAN AND SOUTHEASTERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 AM EST...

AT 1047 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GRANITE FALLS TO 4
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CATAWBA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE HICKORY...
  LOOKOUT SHOALS LAKE...
  ELLENDALE...
  CLEVELAND...
  MOCKSVILLE...
  BERMUDA RUN...

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WITH PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3588 8041 3585 8039 3558 8103 3578 8162
      3604 8119 3603 8108 3607 8098 3605 8049
      3607 8046 3601 8041 3599 8041 3596 8037
      3593 8036 3589 8036

JOH