Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

622 
WWUS52 KGSP 052000
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

NCC149-161-052030-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-120405T2030Z/
POLK NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
400 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RUTHERFORD AND
EASTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FOREST CITY...SPINDALE AND RUTHERFORDTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES.
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 8180 3535 8170 3520 8177 3518 8189
      3519 8203 3537 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 249DEG 10KT 3525 8202

$$

07

359 
WWUS52 KGSP 052021
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
421 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

NCC149-161-052031-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-120405T2030Z/
POLK NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
421 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR RUTHERFORD AND EASTERN POLK
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

LAT...LON 3554 8180 3535 8170 3520 8177 3518 8189
      3519 8203 3537 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 249DEG 10KT 3527 8195

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MERGE WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH AS IT MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER OUR REGION INTO SATURDAY AND WEAKEN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE EAST NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD LEAD TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEARLY ON SCHEDULE...BUT MAYBE A TAD EARLIER
THAN EXPECTED. WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN CWFA
LOOKS WELL PLACED. STRONG INSOLATION OCCURRED IN THIS AREA WITH
POOLING DEW POINTS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THIS LEAD TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA AS EXPECTED. VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES AND
WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE IN PLACE AS WELL DUE TO THE VERY DRY MID
LEVELS SEEN ON THE 12Z FFC RAOB. THE WATCH INCLUDES MUCH OF THE CLT
METRO AREA EVEN THO THEY ARE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE SFC BASED AND
MIXED LAYER CAPE IS LOW OVER THAT AREA...BUT MODERATE MUCAPE IS
ANALYZED DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THEY ARE ALSO ON THE EDGE OF THE
HIGHER DCAPE VALUES AS WELL. THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS SHUD SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT EVEN WITH LESS
THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSRA TO DEVELOP AND TREK
EASTWARD OVER NE GA AND THE UPSTATE AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

THE PRECIP SHUD BECOME LESS DEEPLY CONVECTIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
HAVE KEPT THE CHARACTER OF PRECIP AS SHRA FOR SIMPLICITY ALTHOUGH IT
MAY BE MORE STRATIFORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA.
FORCING WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS QG COUPLET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BE COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS A SFC LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND AN H85 LOW MOVES
IN AS WELL. UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF A JET MAX MOVING IN
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. ALL THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHRA OR RA LATE THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIP BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND
WEST TO EAST AS THE FORCING MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WHERE TSRA MOVE THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL LINGERS THRU THE EVENING.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP QUICKLY TAPERS OFF FRI MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FOR MOST AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON....BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE THRU
THE DAY IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS
THICKNESSES FALL IN THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...ENDING
UP AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH THE STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
A BROAD UPPER TROF LINGERING OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS IT WILL DEAMPLIFY SO THAT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD LATE SUNDAY WE ARE UNDER NEARLY ZONAL NWLY H5 FLOW.

ON SATURDAY...DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING US THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE HAD IN A WHILE.
LOWS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC WITH LOWER 30S IN SOME OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT...SO THERE IS GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. RH VALUES DROP BELOW 30% FOR ABOUT 4 TO
6 HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD...HOWEVER WEAKER
WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL. ON SUNDAY...SOME SORT OF
WEAK BNDY WILL MOVE THRU THE CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WX. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AS THICKNESSES INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE
FCST WITH THINGS STAYING IN LINE WITH HPC GUIDANCE. REFER TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BREAKING DOWN.  WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND THICKNESS VALUES ON THE
WARM SIDE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
STARTING THE WEEK...EXPECT AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AT 12Z MONDAY AS IT SLIDES EAST OR SOUTHEAST.  THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER TROUGH AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE MID WEEK.  LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CONSENSUS OF SHOWERS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS WILL BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY DECREASES ON TUESDAY AND I HAVE INCREASED THE WIND IN THIS
PERIOD AS THIS GRADIENT CERTAINLY SUPPORTS IT.  THE ECMWF HAS AN
UPPER CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH TRYING TO PULL OFF THE EAST COAST BY THAT
TIME.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...BUT AS THE
TROFINESS SETS UP FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 THE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THAT TIME.  LOWS IN THE 30S FOR THE NC
MOUNTAINS IN MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...NE WINDS...OCNL DUE E...WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS
THE AIR FIELD REMAINS NORTH OF THE SFC FNT. CONVECTION LOOKS MORE
LIKELY EVEN WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR IN PLACE AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM...
BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO AMD AS CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD THE
SITE. BEST CHC WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE SCENARIO TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF A RAIN EVENT THIS EVENING...VSBY AND CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER...POSSIBLY TO IFR. VSBY IMPROVES TOWARD DAYBREAK AS RAIN MOVES
OUT...BUT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON BEFORE CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT ANY TIME...
BUT MOST LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK THRU NOON WHEN BEST MIXING OCCURS.

ELSEWHERE...KHKY WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT THRU THE PERIOD. THE WRN
SITES HAVE CONVECTION NEARBY OR ONGOING...SO TS ALREADY IN TAFS.
THAT SAID...A SIMILAR TREND WILL DEVELOP AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING AND SCENARIO TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A RAIN EVENT. MVFR
VSBY AND CIGS...POSSIBLY IFR CIGS...EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH
ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI MORN. WINDS BECOME NE WITH TIME
AND DEVELOP GUSTS TOWARD MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BY FRI AFTERNOON
AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
918 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507>510-
SCZ001>014-019-061330-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
918 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. AREAS THAT STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG AND CHESTER.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY REPEATEDLY AFFECT THE SAME LOCATIONS TODAY. IF
THIS OCCURS...LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. URBAN AREAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-501>506-061330-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
918 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NORTH OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

MCAVOY/RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 PM EDT THU APR 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     HAIL             4 NW SWANNANOA          35.64N 82.44W
04/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED E OF ASHEVILLE NC

&&

PTANNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

SCZ003-051845-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
210 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTY
THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 209 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAESARS HEAD...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CAESARS HEAD...
  JONES GAP STATE PARK...
  MARIETTA...

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...

CAESARS HEAD AND JONES GAP STATE PARK...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3510 8272 3510 8269 3513 8268 3512 8263
      3516 8255 3516 8252 3518 8246 3516 8245
      3520 8242 3521 8238 3506 8232 3501 8255
      3502 8257 3507 8258 3507 8275

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT THU APR 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             2 NE CAESARS HEAD       35.12N 82.59W
04/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL ALMOST COVERED THE GROUND

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT THU APR 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             ASHEVILLE               35.57N 82.55W
04/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING GROUND REPORTED BY
            PUBLIC.

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT THU APR 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             ASHEVILLE               35.57N 82.55W
04/05/2012  E0.50 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT THU APR 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     HAIL             ASHEVILLE               35.57N 82.55W
04/05/2012  E0.75 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LG