Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

002 
WWUS52 KGSP 010132
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
832 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

NCC021-087-115-173-010142-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120301T0200Z/
BUNCOMBE NC-HAYWOOD NC-MADISON NC-SWAIN NC-
832 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SWAIN...
MADISON...NORTHERN HAYWOOD AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EST THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3591 8249 3590 8245 3582 8241 3581 8235
      3575 8234 3573 8228 3559 8229 3552 8220
      3551 8224 3559 8346 3560 8346 3567 8334
      3566 8330 3573 8324 3577 8315 3580 8308
      3578 8299 3584 8292 3592 8292 3598 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 266DEG 56KT 3573 8291

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND LINGER INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM...BROAD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS WRN TN IS BRINGING LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO NE GA AND THE WRN
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. WITH SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES RISING...A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
W/SW PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS BRING THE ERN TN
CONVECTION EWD ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS THROUGH 03Z...AND STEADILY
WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS NRN
AL THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE BASE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...NE GA...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC. THIS IS WHERE
THE HIGHER SEVERE OR TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY LINE COULD ALSO DEVELOP INTO THE MTNS AGAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COLD FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK THU
WITH RAPID DRYING. THE FRONT WILL LAY OVER S OF THE REGION AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER FROM THE N. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SEND TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM...IT WILL NOT REACH RECORD LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST PART OF WEEKEND LOOKS ACTIVE. THE
OLD SURFACE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPRING BACK TO LIFE THURSDAY
EVENING AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF AND VEERING WIND AT 850 MB
BRINGS RENEWED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE. THE NEWLY
ACTIVITATED WARM FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT
PRECIP BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...
PERHAPS ONLY WEST OF I-26 WHERE A CHANCE WILL BE CARRIED. THE
UPGLIDE AND WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...SO THE PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA...WITH A LIKELY POP ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE
THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE. THIS FCST IS NOT WITHOUT
ITS POTENTIAL BUST WHERE TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. THE NAM HOLDS ONTO A
STRONGER PARENT HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO A COLD
AIR DAMMING WEDGE E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHEREAS THE SURFACE HIGH ON
THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER CHOICE WITHOUT MUCH SEEN TO ANCHOR A HIGH TO OUR NE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS WERE NUDGED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IN THE USUAL CAD
REGION TO HEDGE OUR BETS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE GFS IS
PREFERRED.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND POSTIVELY TILTED
SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY THAT DIGS MUCH FARTHER S THAN TODAYS SYSTEM.
THE UPPER FORCING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES
ARE RAMPED BACK UP TO LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS BEFORE SUNRISE. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW
THINGS DOWN BY A FEW HOURS. A CONTINUATION OF THIS TREND WILL BE THE
KEY TO DETERMINING OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE MODELS MANAGE TO
DEVELOP STRONG MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
FROPA...BUT LIMITED BUOYANCY BECAUSE OF THE TIMING. CAPE ON THE NAM
IS MEAGER AT BEST...AND MINIMAL ON THE GFS...FOR NOW. IF THE TIMING
SLIPS FURTHER...WE COULD HAVE A VERY INTERESTING SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MTNS. PRECIP CHANCES WERE KEPT
TO LIKELY WITH FROPA OVER TIMING UNCERTAINTY...AND ENDED FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS SOME CARRYOVER INTO SATURDAY EVENING
BASED ON TIMING TREND...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION
BY MID EVENING AT THE LATEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE A
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWFA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT WHILE PORTIONS OF NC MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIQUID AS THE TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AND LINGER INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HENCE...MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVER OUR AREA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY IN RESPOND TO ISENTROPIC
LIFTING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...I HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LATE WED/THU DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
3-5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES SUN/MON AND RISE ABOVE
NORMALS TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GENERAL FEELING ON CONVECTION IS THAT
ERN TN ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN CROSSING THE MTNS...WHILE CONVECTION
APPROACHING FROM AL/GA COULD MOVE SWIFTLY NE TO TRANSIT THE PIEDMONT
BY 06Z. WILL MENTION TSRA FROM 04Z TO 06Z FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL
CERTAINLY NEED FINE TUNING AS THE EVENING CONVECTION TAKES SHAPE.
IFR CIGS ARE THEN LIKELY UNTIL FROPA SWINGS WINDS MORE WESTERLY
AROUND 12Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WSW IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH MUCH OF THU WITH A LEE TROUGH IN PLACE.

ELSEWHERE...PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FILL IN THIS
EVENING...WITH TSRA EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z
THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS...BUT WITH IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF ANY CONVECTIVE LINES. SW WINDS WILL TURN WSW
WITH FROPA BY 12Z...AND TURN NW AT KAVL. EXPECT ANY LINGERING IFR
CIGS TO SCOUR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT. BY EARLY
FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TONIGHT...MUCH OF WRN NC COULD
NEED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THU WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S AND
WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG/LG
FIRE WEATHER...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-505>510-
SCZ001>007-010-020000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-
658 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 53 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE WESTERN PART OF UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>504-SCZ008-009-011>014-019-
020000-
ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
658 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE PIEDMONT OF THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING.

IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST LIKELY AT LEAST A FEW STORMS
WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
THAT SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THOSE AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LAKELANDS TO THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE LATE PART OF THE
EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH THAT A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY WELL ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULARLY IF ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP.

LATER DEVELOPMENTS...SUCH AS THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE AND THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR...WILL DETERMINE IF
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCHES ARE ISSUED FOR THE
PIEDMONT OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. MONITOR THE
FORECAST LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE GOING TO BED
TONIGHT...TO SEE IF SEVERE WEATHER MIGHT BE DEVELOPING. TORNADOES
CAN BE MOST DANGEROUS LATE AT NIGHT WHEN PEOPLE ARE SLEEPING AND
DO NOT HAVE A WAY OF RECEIVING WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.