Severe Thunderstorm Warning 552, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

145 
WWUS52 KGSP 302058
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

NCC121-199-302130-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0552.000000T0000Z-120830T2130Z/
MITCHELL NC-YANCEY NC-
458 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YANCEY AND
CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BAKERSVILLE...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF BURNSVILLE. MOVEMENT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MICAVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8217 3601 8204 3600 8206 3595 8204
      3573 8223 3591 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 049DEG 2KT 3599 8219

$$

RWH

019 
WWUS52 KGSP 302112
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
512 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

NCC121-199-302122-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0552.000000T0000Z-120830T2130Z/
MITCHELL NC-YANCEY NC-
512 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YANCEY AND CENTRAL MITCHELL
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

LAT...LON 3611 8217 3601 8204 3600 8206 3595 8204
      3573 8223 3591 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 049DEG 2KT 3598 8220

$$

RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATE ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE
WEEKEND. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST BY MID WEEK AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NATION WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK RIDGE MOVES WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. ON
FRIDAY...THESE RIDGES MERGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY...SERVING AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST BELOW 700 MB. INSTABILITY WILL WANE THIS
EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING....BUT WILL RETURN WITH HEATING
ON FRIDAY...THOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING WILL NEARLY CAP CONVECTION...
AND WILL KEEP CAPE SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG LESS THAN TODAY. AS BETTER
CLOUD COVER FOLLOWS THE FRONT SOUTH...A GREATER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MINIMUMS NEAR
NORMAL...AND MAXIMUMS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK LOBES OF 500MB VORTICITY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND UPPER HIGH WITH DECENT MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SO THERE
SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER. NONETHELESS THERE IS
OVER 500 J OF AFTERNOON CAPE SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SAT
AND SUN. BY SUNDAY REMNANTS OF ISAAC ARE ABSORBED INTO MIDLATITUDE
FLOW OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BECOMING A SHORTWAVE WHICH THEN
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED
REMNANT WAVE FROM ISAAC IN SIMILAR FASHION THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHEN THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE WAVE JUST AS IT CROSSES THE
APPALACHIANS. THE EC DOES ALSO WEAKEN THE WAVE BUT BROADENS IT TO
COVER MOST OF THE SERN CONUS. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPED BY THE EC EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
THIS WEEKEND SO LEANING AWAY FROM IT AT THIS TIME. ON ACCOUNT OF ITS
TIGHTER WAVE...THE GFS DEVELOPS A SFC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK WHILE THE EC HAS OUR AREA IN BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND AN ATLANTIC HIGH. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE
SURFACE FRONT IN THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LINGER IN THE AREA. KEPT
HIGHER POPS EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND TRENDED DOWNWARD BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT NUMBERS DUE TO MODEL
SPREAD...BUT FEEL THE TREND IS REASONABLE. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES
SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER MON AND TUE...BUT
LINGERING POPS WED AND THU LOOK TO BE JUST SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CIG IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW VFR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL WARRANT A
MENTION IN HT TAF AS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF THE FIELD.
A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH A RATHER LOW PREDOMINANT CLOUD HEIGHT IS FAVORED...CLOUD
COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A CIG. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE SW.

ELSEWHERE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND SOEM
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
GREATEST IN SC AND THE NC MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO A FRONT NEAR THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A
GREAT DEAL OF IFR VSBY AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW THE LOW END
OF MVFR WILL BE FAVORED UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR CIGS IN THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND
THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WITH VFR CIGS AT KAVL AND KAND.
LIGHT SW WINDS WILL PERSIST...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL
CHANNEL UPVALLEY FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL LINGER NORTH OF A FRONT...LEAVING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-311930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
329 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.